NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy Saturday LineStar family!

How is it already week 10!? This season has flown by. This is also the first week that we will have some mega chalky pieces. That least to some chalky lineup construction. A large majority of the field will likely have 1-2 pay-down options at RB, then have then they will pay up at QB and WR. Keep this in mind when you are building lineups, because if you use Ingram and Johnson together the options to get different are fairly limited.

The easiest way to differentiate yourself this week will be to pay up at RB.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 3 highest owned QB's currently look like:

1. Justin Herbert 15%

2. Josh Allen 14%

3. Dak Prescott 11%

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | vs. MIN

· Likely around 14-15% owned on both sites

· Highest owned QB, but 5rd lowest odds to be the highest-scoring team on Sunday

· Only 28.3 implied team total.

· Min is averaging 20.7 DK Fp and 19.7 FD FP to opposing QBs

Pivot QB

Carson Wentz, IND | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.5k | vs. JAC

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· IND has averaged over 30 points a game over the last 6 games

· JAC is giving up 286.6 yards passing per game

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS

· WAS is giving up 26.8 fantasy points at game to opposing QBs

· No Gronk or AB makes it easier to stack due to more condensed targets

· Coming in around 9% on both sites.

RB Chalk

D'Ernest Johnson, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | vs. NE

· Around 32% on both sites, in small field tournaments, I would expect his ownership to be closer to 60%

· Johnson is incredibly underpriced.

· Only reason I can find to consider fading him are: NE has only given up 3 TDs to running backs this year.

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET

· Around 21% owned on both sites

· DET is giving up the second-most points to the RB position

· PIT Steelers will be without Big Ben this week as he went on the COVID list today. I would expect DET to try and stack the box and make Dwayne Haskins or Mason Rudolph beat them.

Mark Ingram, NO | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. TEN

· Around 18% on both sites.

· TEN D has been tough vs RB, but Ingram is extremely cheap and will get the work.

Pivot RB

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | @ CAR

· Around 8% on DK and 16% on FD

· If we didn't have the mega chalk Johnson, Conner would be getting all the attention.

· ARI is likely without Murray and Hopkins again, making them likely need to lean into the run.

· Over the last 4 games CAR is giving up 27.3 fantasy points to RB position

Dalvin Cook, MIN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | @ LAC

· Around 6% on DK and 10% on FD

· LAC is giving up 32.7 fantasy points to the RB position over the last 4 weeks. Chubb was the only good RB they faced over that time, and he went for 161 yards and a TD

· 2nd Highest total game of the week.

WR Chalk

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SEA

· Around 25% on DK and 22% on FD

· Aaron Rodgers is back, the 4th highest totaled game of the week.

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MIN

· Likely around 16% on DK and 20% on FD

· Keenan is banged up and was limited in practice with a knee injury.

· Keenan beats teams through the middle, and MIN has been beaten on the outside. This could be a Mike Williams game.

AJ Brown, TEN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NO

· Around 10% on DK and 18% on FD

· No Julio Jones and NO is a pass funnel D. They are beatable through the air.

Mike Williams, LAC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. MIN

· Around 15% on DK and 12% on FD

· I Like Williams over Keenan this week.

· Second-highest game total

Pivot WR’s

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TB

· 6% owned on DK at 12% on FD

· TB will likely have a lead and force WAS to pass, and TB passing defense isn't good. Giving up the 12th most points to WRs.

Jerry Jeudy, DEN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PHI

· Around 7% on both sites

· PHI is beatable through the slot and the middle of the field. With Darius Slay taking out WR's on the outside. I expect him to be all over Sutton.

Note: Darius Slay is questionable. If he does not play Sutton is also a great play.

Christian Kirk, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CAR

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. CAR

AJ Green, ARI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CAR

· It looks like Deandre Hopkins will sit again. If so there is a lot of value to be had at WR in AZ. It also looks like all the WRS will be coming in around 5% owned

· Kyler Murray is questionable BUT Colt Mccoy is a serviceable backup. Obviously, I like the play a lot more if Murray plays though.

DK Metcalf, Sea | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8 | vs. GB

· 8% owned on DK at 6% on FD

· GB D will still be without Jaire Alexander.

· 4th highest game total on the slate.

TE Chalk

TE is pretty evenly split this weekend, Arnold, Pitts, and Freiermuth are the higher owned at between 8-11%.

Dan Arnold JAC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. IND

· Around 10% on both sites

· IND is giving up the 5th MOST points to the TE

. It's hard to trust this JAC offense, Arnold has been consistent but hasn't been able to get into the endzone.

Pivot TE:

Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.3k | vs. TB

· Around 3% owned on both sites

· TB is giving up 6 receptions for 55 yards and .5TDs on average to TEs.

· RSJ has been a workhorse since Logan Thomas got hurt. He has seen 100% of the snaps in the last 3 weeks.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. NYJ

· 5% owned on both sites

· Over the last 4 weeks TEs vs NYJ has had 6.8 rec for 88 yards and 1 TD.

· Prior to getting hurt Knox was getting a ton of looks from Allen. This could be a nice leverage spot on the rest of the BUF pass-catchers too.

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.