NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy Saturday LineStar family!

Week 11 is here, and it's an interesting one. The main question for all your lineups is how much KC vs DAL exposure do you want? Most lineups will likely have 1-2 players from that game, and because of that, I will likely overstack that game or fade it and hope it disappoints (a risky move, but if it pays off you will have the upper hand on most of the field. I would only recommend doing this with a small portion of your bankroll).

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 3 highest owned QBs currently:

1. Patrick Mahomes 16%

2. Josh Allen 11%

3. Derek Carr 9%

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DAL

· Likely around 16% owned on both sites

· Highest team implied total on the slate at 29.5

· Have the Chiefs figured out their offense again? or did they just have LV Raiders number last week?

· DAL is averaging 20.3 DK Fp and 18.9 FD FP to opposing QBs

Pivot QB

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. KC

· Around 6% owned on both sites, I am extremely surprised he isn't getting more ownership. But it is likely because Mahomes salary is close to Dak's.

· KC is giving up the 2nd most points to the QB position.

· Over the last 4 games, Dak is averaging 318 yards and 2.5 td's

· Great stacking options with Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. HOU

· TEN has the 3rd lowest odds at being this week's highest-scoring team

· Without Henry, they haven't been able to run the ball very effectively and HOU gives up the 7th most points to the QB.

· Coming in around 5% on both sites.

· Tannehill hasn't had a ceiling game this year but last year he had multiple 30 point fantasy games.

RB Chalk

AJ Dillion, GB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. MIN

· Around 26-28% on both sites

· Dillion is underpriced for the workload everyone expects him to get, BUT GB can be finicky with their RB touches. Aaron Jones touches by games 7, 23, 21, 18, 18, 17, 11, 22, 12, and last game 11 but he got hurt. Throwing out last game that is 33% of the games Jones has not had more than 12 touches. In 2020 25% of his games, he has less than 14.

· MIN is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to the RB position.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. SEA

· Around 20% owned on both sites

· SEA is giving up the second-most points to the RB position

· Conner had 13 touches while getting blown out last week. The workload will be there vs a bad run D.

Christian McCaffery, NO | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10k | vs. TEN

· Around 13% on both sites.

· CMC has regained his workload, with 10 targets and 13 rushes last week.

· With his receiving volume he has the highest floor in the league, BUT will Cam Newton take away some of his TD upside?

Pivot RB

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. KC

· Around 7% on both sites

· Highest game total on tomorrow's slate.

· There is a chance that DAL game plan is to try and run the ball and keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible. If that happens Zeke is huge leverage on the DFS field.

· KC is middle of the pack vs the run.

James Robinson, JAC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.1k | vs. SF

· Around 3% on both sites

· SF is giving up the 11th most points to the RB position. If JAC wants to win the game it has to be on the back of James Robinson.

· Similar workload expected for the 2 chalky pieces (Conner/Dillion), but coming at 1/8th the ownership.

Jeff Wilson Jr, SF | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5k | vs. JAC

· Around 7% on DK and 9% on FD, I expect this ownership to rise, but if it doesn't I will be all over Wilson. Eli Mitchell also must be out for me to play him. As of writing, this Mitchelle is still questionable

· SF loves to run the ball and they are almost 1 TD favorite, he will get a workload if Mitchell is out. Shannahan does not trust Sermon.

WR Chalk

Michael Gallup, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. KC

· Around 22% on DK and 17% on FD

· Amari Cooper is out, opening up more targets for Gallup

· Highest scoring game of the week, getting a cheap piece is very enticing

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIN

· Likely around 12% on DK and 18% on FD

· Adams is always in play, especially when he faces the 5th worst team vs WR. MIN is giving up 41.5 fantasy points to the WR position.

Tee Higgins, CIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. LV

· Around 18% on DK and 15% on FD

· Second highest-scoring game of the week, and likely the easiest game to stack due to player salaries.

. Averaging 8.4 targets per game since he came back from injury

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. DAL

· Around 17% on both sites

· DAL D loves to take chances which could open up Hill for some big plays.

· Highest game total and the highest ceiling player in that game should be getting ownership

Pivot WR’s

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. NYJ

· 10% owned on DK at 8% on FD

· Dolphins are still without multiple WRs and NYJ's haven't been able to stop anyone. They have given up 43.75 real points on average in the last 4 games.

· Over the last 4 NYJ are giving up 221 rec yards and 13.3 receptions per game. Ranking last in the NFL.

Christian Kirk, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SEA

· Deandre Hopkins will sit again. While he has been out Kirk has far and away been the favorite option.

· Kyler Murray is questionable, but if he plays I think this is a great spot. With Murray at QB, Kirk will be too cheap and coming in around 5% owned.

Byron Pringle, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.3 | vs. DAL

· 1-3% on both sites

· Pringle played 61% of snaps last week, which coincided with Hardman playing his year low of snaps and Robinson playing his 2nd fewest snaps. IF Pringle took over the WR2 job this bottom basement pricing is way too low.

TE Chalk

Travis Kelce KC| DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DAL

· Around 12-14% on both sites

· Best TE in the highest-scoring game. Of course, he is chalky.

Pivot TE:

Dalton Schultz, DAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6k | vs. KC

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· KC is the 6th worst team vs TE, giving up on average 5.2 rec and 64.1 yards.

· Schultz has had a couple of down weeks but has been used a ton all season. With Cooper out, Dak could be looking his way more to move the sticks.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. IND

· 2% owned on both sites

· Not a ton of target volume but he has big upside, with big playability in a game where the Bills are expected to be able to score

· BUF has the 2nd highest implied total.

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.