NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy Saturday LineStar family!

We are down to the home stretch of the NFL season. This is an interesting week since we have 2 teams on bye and had 3 Thanksgiving games. Most of the star QBs are not on this slate, and according to line makers, all of the games could be close with the exception of TEN@NE. This has spread ownership out heavily, it looks like there will only be 5-7 players over 15% owned depending on the site you play, and only Keenan Allen is pushing 20%. Because of that let's focus a little more on roster construction. It looks like the normal construction will be somewhat of a balanced build. By paying up and going for more of a stud/dud approach you will be getting outside of the chalky lineup construction.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 2 highest owned QBs currently:

1. Justin Herbert 17%

2. Tom Brady 16%

This week I am only listing 2 because everyone else is under 10%.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DEN

· Likely around 17% owned on both sites

· Herbert has been boom or bust all year, and going away to mile high stadium is not the kind of chalk I like to follow.

· DEN has been one of the best teams in the league vs the Pass all season.

· LAC is 3rd in implied team points this week with 25.3

Pivot QB

Carson Wentz, IND | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TB

· TB is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to the QB position. If TB can sell out to stop Jonathon Taylor, then Wentz will have to throw a lot to keep up with the Bucs.

· On average TB is giving up 253.3 yards passing and 1.8 TDs. Good for an average of 20 fantasy points.

· Coming in around 5% on both sites.

· 53 is the highest game total of the week by 4 points

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | vs. NYG

· Around 8% owned on both sites

· NYG giving up the 13th most points to QB

· His rushing upside gives him a chance at being the best QB on any slate

· NYG ranked 25th allowing 1.8 Pass TDs (Last 9), NYG ranked 25th allowing 266.7 Pass Yards (Last 9)

RB Chalk

We have differences in ownership at the RB position based on what site you will be playing on. So I am going to list the top 5 guys then dive in to Ekeler, Gaskin, and Mixon. Henderson and Cook are too cheap on their platforms thus the ownership got pushed up for both of them, but since they aren't on both listed I am going to hold off on diving into them.

DK Highest owned RBs

1. Darrell Henderson Jr - 14%

2. Austin Ekeler - 13%

3. Myles Gaskin - 13%

4. Joe Mixon - 12%

5. Jonathan Taylor - 12%

FD Highest owned RBs

1. Dalvin Cook - 17%

2. Austin Ekeler - 16%

3. Joe Mixon - 15%

4. Myles Gaskin - 14.5%

5. Jonathan Taylor - 14%

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. DEN

· 13.5% on DK and 16% on FD

· The Chargers are getting a lot of ownership for playing on the road for a divisional game at Den.

· Historically DEN has been able to keep Ekeler in check. On the season DEN is only allowing .6 Rush TDs per game.

· Averaging 14.44 FPPG in 5 Away games vs 21.99 on the season

Myles Gaskin, MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CAR

· Around 13-14% owned on both sites

· CAR is the 3rd toughest matchup for an RB

· His workload makes him in consideration at these prices

Joe Mixon, NO | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

· Around 13% on DK 15% on FD.

· Mixon has been in the perfect lineup 4 of the last 5 games

· PIT is middle of the pack vs RB, Mixon has never broken 20 fantasy points vs PIT

Pivot RB

Christian McCaffery, CAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIA

· Around 11-12% on both sites, higher owned than I usually will put anyone at a pivot but CMC is a stud and has a 25 point floor this season. Getting him lower than 15% owned is rare.

· As I said in the intro, going stud/dud could be the way to get different on this slate.

· MIA has been tough vs the RB but they haven't played many good RBs. Taylor put up 23, Fournette 21, and James Robinson 19. All of them were able to do work via the ground and air. Although they have been tough as a whole I am not worried about the matchup as good RBs haven't had an issue.

James Robinson, JAC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

· Around 9% on both sites

· ATL is giving up the 5th most points to the RB position. If JAC wants to win the game it has to be on the back of James Robinson.

· At home, Robinson is averaging 18.1 Fantasy points

Dontrell Hilliard, TEN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NE

· Around 3% owned

· TEN has very little offensive firepower right now, Hilliard while he likely won't break the slate, could have a fairly high floor with his receiving upside at close to minimum prices.

WR Chalk

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7k | vs. DEN

· Around 19% on DK and 22% on FD

· Once again, the Chargers are highly owned in a divisional game.

· Unlike Ekeler, Allen has gone off vs DEN

· DEN ranked 23rd allowing 1.1 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9)

Chris Godwin, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. IND

· Likely around 19% on both sites

· TB has the lowest odds at being the highest-scoring team on the week with a 28pt implied team total.

· He is a fairly safe play, most targeted TB WR in a good match-up.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. Min

· Around 16% on DK and 18% on FD

· He is that dude this season, he has been over 25 fantasy points in half his games this season.

. 2nd highest team implied total with 26

. MIN has been beaten by the big play

Michael Pittman Jr, IND | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. TB

· Around 15% on DK and 14% on FD

· Price is way too low on DK for this matchup. Averaging 15 points at home.

· TB has a pass funnel defense, they sell out to stop the run and will absolutely put all their effort into stopping Jonathon Taylor

Pivot WR’s

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LAR

· Around 7% on both sites

· 47 point game total

· Rams are giving up 36.6 fantasy points to WRs on average.

· Adams is still one of the best WRs in the game, getting a guy like this at low ownership in a decent matchup is rare.

Mike Williams, LAC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DEN

· Around 8% on both sites.

· His price has come back to where it started the season. He has huge upside, and if he hits it would be leverage on the 2Keenan Allen and Ekeler lineups.

· His target volume has substantially dropped from early in the season, but if it comes back he is too cheap.

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7 | vs. PIT

· 3-5% on both sites

· Chase is going completely overlooked this week, but earlier this season he had a 2 TD game vs PIT.

· PIT ranked 24th allowing 1.1 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9)

TE Chalk

Rob Gronkowski TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. IND

· Around 13% on DK and 10% on FD

· TE in the highest-scoring game, with the best QB in the game. Can't hate the ownership being there.

Dallas Goedert PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NYG

· Around 10% on DK and 14% on FD

· Dallas Goedert has been getting a lot of targets, but his QB doesn't throw many TDs which is hurting his output.

Pivot TE:

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. CIN

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· I don't agree with this ownership projection. I thought he would be much higher, but several sources have him around 5%.

· Pat Freiermuth has 11 redzone targets over the last 4 weeks, which makes him the 2nd highest targeted pass catcher over that time span.

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.