NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Week 13 is upon us, and seems to be a pretty good slate. There are only 2 games over 50 totals, and the two highest owned QBs are both in blowout spots.

As for lineup construction, there is some good value this week so I'd expect that most lineups will have 1-2 studs. Going with a balanced will get your different.

Lets dive in!

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 2 highest owned QBs currently:

1. Tom Brady 15%

2. Matthew Stafford 11%

This week I am only listing 2 because everyone else is under 10%.

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ATL

·     Likely around 15% owned on both sites

·     He is in an absolute smash spot once again, and likely too cheap on DK.

·    30.43 FPPG vs ATL over the last 2 years

·     ATL is giving up the 6th most points to QBs

Pivot QB

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. PIT

·     After a 4 INT game I expect a bounce-back performance. While the game total is low, I think it's too low. Over the last 2 years in PIT vs BAL games that Lamar and Big Ben have both played they have averaged 50 point total.

·     PIT and BAL defense this year have not been what they have the last few years.

·     Coming in around 6% owned on both sites is too low for a QB with his ceiling

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CIN

·    Around 6% owned on both sites

·    Highest game total of the week, and both teams have gotten into multiple shootouts this year, CIN offense has been hot and Herbert will need to throw to keep them in the game.

·    CIN ranked 29th allowing 38.1 Pass Attempts (Last 9), CIN ranked 29th allowing 275.8 Pass Yards (Last 9)

·    Herbert has been using his legs more lately giving him some added upside

Kirk Cousins, MIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DET

·    Around 6% owned on both sites

·    Leverage on the Mattison lineups

·    Kirk destroys DET in DET

·    DET D is awful and there was some coach talk this week of wanting to let Kirk throw more.

RB Chalk

There are a ton of good RB plays this week. I have listed the 3 guys that are highest owned but Henderson, Fournette, Jamal Williams, and Mixon are all around 15-17% owned on both sites. I would expect Antonio Gibson's ownership to get up there as well after a game where he had 36 touches and will be without JD McKissic.

Jonathon Taylor, IND | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. HOU

·     29% on DK and 26% on FD

·    It should be to no surprise that everyone wants JT in a great matchup.

·    While I absolutely love this spot for JT. At this price, he really needs to score twice to be a must-have in your lineups

·    24.6 FPPG vs HOU over the last 2 years

James Conner, ARI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CHI

·     Around 20% on both sites

·     Opp vs RB (Last 4) Rush Yards/G 92.0, Receptions/G 6.0, Rec Yards/G 30.0, TDs/G 0.8

·     CHI is middle of the road vs the run, but Conner is too cheap for his workload, and TD upside.

Alexander Mattison, MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. DET

·     Around 17% on both sites

·     Mattison has crushed when Cook is out, last time vs DET he had 113 yards rushing and 7 rec for 40 yards plus 1 TD.

·    DET over the last 4 is giving up 116.5 rushing yards and 1 TD/game.

Pivot RB

Cordarrelle Patterson ATL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. TB

·     He's risky, only plays about half the snaps but they feed him the ball when he's in the game.

·     TB allows 18% more FP to RB when Favored (Last 9), ATL averages 31% more FP against division rivals (Last 9)

·     On the season TB is giving up 7 receptions/G and 47 rec yards/G and ATL RB's are targeted at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

·     Only around 4-5% owned

Austin Ekeler, JAC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. ATL

·    Around 6% on both sites

·    CIN is giving up 7.5 rec and 55.8 rec yards per game. They are also giving up .7 TD's per game to the RB.

·    Outside of Jonathon Taylor, no one has scored more fantasy points than Ekeler from the RB position. Now he's in a good match-up and not getting ownership.

·    Highest game total of the week.

Elijah Mitchell, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6 | vs. SEA

·    Around 9-10% owned on both sites.

·     While I expect this to be a slow game, without Samuel, Eli is going to get all the work he can manage.

·    SEA ranks 31st vs RBs

WR Chalk

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | vs. JAC

·     Around 26% on DK and 22% on FD

·     Rams have the 2nd highest implied total, and Stafford is chalk. Naturally, his best WR will be chalk as well.

·    After absolutely crushing through the first 8 weeks he has leveled off a little but still has a 20 point floor.

·    To being the season Kupp was dominating the targets, however over the last few weeks the targets have been a little more balanced.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8k | vs. DET

·     Likely around 22% on both sites

·     Jefferson is averaging 56.0% more FP in domes

·    DET was able to keep the game close in MIN.

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

·     Around 17% on DK and 16% on FD

· Averaging 11.6 targets per week over the last 5 weeks

. 50.5 game total and only a 3 point spread. LAC has gotten into several shootouts

. CIN is not giving many TD's to WRs. CIN ranked 2nd allowing 0.4 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9)

Chris Godwin, TB | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

·     Around 19% on DK and 18% on FD

· Brady's favorite target, but gets less valuable targets compared to Evans.

·     21.03 FPPG vs ATL the last 2 years.

Pivot WR’s

Marquise Brown, BAL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. PIT

·    Around 7% on both sites

·   PIT is ranked 25th vs WRs giving up 168.8 rec yards, 12 rec, and 1.1 TDs per game.

·   PIT ranked 29th allowing 1.1 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9)

Michael Pittman Jr, IND | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. HOU

·     Around 6-8% on both sites.

·    IND offense has been clicking on all cylinders, now they face a swiss cheese D.

·   While the most logical way for IND to put up points is Jonathon Taylor it could just as easily be Pittman. HOU ranks 31st at defending the WR over the last 4 games.

·   HOU ranked 29th allowing 182.6 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9)

Josh Reynolds, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.1 | vs. MIN

·     1-2% on both sites

·    MIN D is banged up, Reynolds has chemistry with Goff going back to LAR, in Reynolds first game with Goff at QB for DET he went 3 for 70 and a TD.

·    No Deandre Swift and MIN ranks last in the league vs WR.

TE Chalk

Foster Moreau LV | DK: $2.6k, FD: $5k | vs. IND

·     Around 14% on DK and 10% on FD

·     TE in the highest-scoring game and has shown when Waller is out he takes over Waller's role.

George Kittle SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. SEA

·     Around 10% on DK and 11% on FD

·     With no Deebo, playmakers like Kittle will be needed to beat their division rival. Kittle and Aiyuk will get extra looks without Deebo playing.

Pivot TE:

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. BAL

·    Around 3% owned on both sites

·     Going back to the Freiermuth well

·     BAL over the last 4 weeks is giving up 70 rec yards and .6 TDs to TEs good for 17.3 DKFP

·    Freiermuth has had more redzone targets than Cooper Kupp over the last 4 weeks

TJ Hockenson, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIN

·    Around 5% owned on both sites

·     DET is without Swift who gobbles up the short dump-off passes, if a few of those are now directed at Hockenson then he could be in line for a solid day.

·    MIN has been tough vs TE this season but they will be missing several key pieces on their D. They are also missing LB Eric Kendricks, both DE's, and Patrick Petterson. They also could be without Anthony Barr who is questionable and missed last week.

NOTE: I wouldn't play both Hockenson and Reynolds in the same lineup

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.