NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

The big decision this week is what do you do with LAC? Herbert, Allen and Jackson will be chalky. Its very likely that over 50% of the field will have players from the Chargers. In a small field contest I would expect that to be more like 60-70%. Be mindful of that while you make your lineups. If you have 2 of those 3 players you will have to get different somewhere in your lineups. If you fade all 3 you can pretty much play whoever you want and not worry about ownership.

Let's dive in.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 3 highest owned QBs currently:

1. Justin Herbert 19%

2. Matt Stafford 16%

3. Tom Brady 11%

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. HOU

· Likely around 19% owned on both sites

· HOU ranked 8th allowing 32.1 Pass Attempts (Last 9)

· No Mike Williams or Austin Ekeler

· Hou, can't stop the run. Jackson and Kelley are capable backs and both of them have fresh legs.

Pivot QB

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NYG

· 9% owned on both sites

· Hurts is cheaper than 3 top-owned guys and has a higher ceiling due to his rushing, plus he is in a good matchup.

· NYG ranked 30th allowing 39.0 Pass Attempts (Last 9)

Josh Johnson, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CIN

· 4% owned

· CIN ranked 31st allowing 268.3 Pass Yards (Last 9)

· Johnson did well when he got a shot in week 9 against a better D, why can't he do it again?

· Has a great floor due to rushing upside.

RB Chalk

Justin Jackson, LAC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. HOU

· Around 35% owned on both sites.

· Good offense, bad defense, and fresh legs for Jackson.

· HOU ranked 31st allowing 1.3 Rush TDs (Last 9), and 132.2 Rush Yards (Last 9)

· My only hesitation is that we do not know if they will give Jackson 70+% of the work, or have him split time with Kelley and/or Roundtree.

Ronald Jones, TB | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. CAR

· Around 30% on both sites

· CAR ranked 29th allowing 113.9 Rush Yards

· Jones is a good runner, but may come out on 3rd downs in passing situations. He likely needs a TD to be a must-have in tournaments.

Alexander Mattison, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $5.5 | vs. LAR

· 15% on DK and 30% on FD

· Averaging 25.67 DK points in his 3 starts this season, but vs DET 2x and SEA.

· LAR ranked 5th allowing 72.1 Rush Yards

Pivot RB

Damien Harris NE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. BUF

· Around 4% on both sites

· Stevenson is out

· Star Lotulelei is questionable, if he is out I absolutely love this play. If he is in I still like the play. He will have the volume needed to have a good game.

Javonte Williams, DEN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LV

· 4% on both sites

· LV is ranked 31st vs the run over the last 4 weeks. DEN RB's should have their way on Sunday.

James Robinson, JAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $8.2 | vs. NYJ

· Around 10-12% owned on both sites.

· He is a little higher owned than I try to put on here, but the NYJ D is so beat up that I think 10-12% may be significantly under-owned for Robinson. (view photo below)

· NYJ ranked 32nd allowing 1.7 Rush TDs

WR Chalk

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIN

· Around 30% on both sites

· MIN has been beaten by the big play this season, all 3 of LAR WRs are capable.

· MIN ranked 28th allowing 1.1 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9), MIN ranked 32nd allowing 203.6 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9)

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR

· Likely around 27% on Draftkings and 19% on Fanduel

· CAR is allowing TD's to WRs at a decent clip but are 7th only giving up 133 yards to WRs.

· Godwin and Evans are OUT this week

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. HOU

· Around 18% on DK and 25% on FD

· HOU ranked 30th allowing 170.9 Rec Yards to WR

. Without Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, Keenan should get all the targets he can handle.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. PIT

· Around 15% on DK and 18% on FD

· PIT has been awful vs the run but solid vs the pass.

· PIT ranked 10th allowing 135.6 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9)

Pivot WR’s

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

· Around 8% on DK, and 12% on FD

· It's simple BAL is one of the worst teams in the league at allowing big plays, and Chase makes big plays.

· BAL ranked 31st allowing 173.6 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9

Hunter Renfrow, LV | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DEN

· Around 5% on both sites.

· While it's a tough matchup, the GREAT Hunter Renfrow is the only game in town for LV.

· He will get peppered with targets nonstop. Over the last 4 games, he is averaging 8 receptions for 96 yards and .3 TDs per game.

· With no ownership, I will take a couple of shots with this volume he is seeing.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.5 | vs. NE

· 5% owned

· Gabe Davis and Cole Beasley are out, Emmanuel Sanders has been missing for weeks. Diggs could be back to his 2020 targets when he was the whole passing game.

· Tough matchup but NE allows 20% more pass attempts when Home (Last 9)

TE Chalk

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.87 | vs. CAR

· 15% on both sites

· CAR ranked 10th allowing 44.1 Rec Yards to TE (Last 9)

· No Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Gronk will likely be double covered all day but will be looked at a ton.

Pivot TE:

Jared Cook, LAC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. HOU

· Around 3% owned on both sites

· No Parham, Ekeler, or Williams. Herbert will have to throw the ball somewhere, and he trusts Cook.

· On the season HOU is ranked 24th vs the TE

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.