NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy New Year LineStar Fam! 2021 ended with a bang for the chalk report. We had LineStar member los226 takedown the big yahoo tournament for 100k and I came in 2nd for 50k. (see below for a screenshot of both lineups). Carlos beat me out due to Rojo scoring 1.6 more points than Najee Harris.

Enough talking about last week, that is old news and the slate is now clean. Week 17 is up, let's take a look at how the week looks from an ownership perspective.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

The 3 highest owned QBs currently:

1. Dak Prescott 13%

2. Josh Allen 11%

3. Joe Burrow 8%

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ARI

· Likely around 13% owned on both sites

· ARI ranked 7th allowing 220.4 Pass Yards (Last 9)

· ARI ranked 25th allowing 1.7 Pass TDs (Last 9)

Pivot QB

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NYJ

· 7% owned on both sites

· TB is tied for the highest implied team total on the slate

· TB is like BUF where they always throw and don't take their foot off the pedal. With Brady having some of his weapons back I expect them to stomp on the Jets.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DAL

· 6% owned

· Kyler tends to rush more in competitive games raising his ceiling

· Highest total game of the week

· Cardinals have lost 3 straight and need to bounce back

· Reasonable priced stacking options will allow still getting Kupp or Taylor.

RB Chalk

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. LV

· Around 25% owned on DK and 28% on FD.

· Taylor has been an absolute stud all season and is vs the 27th ranked run d.

Sony Michel, LAR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

· Around 17% on both sites

· BAL ranked 6th allowing 0.4 Rush TDs (Last 9)

· BAL ranked 10th allowing 75.2 Rush Yards (Last 9)

· No Darrell Henderson so he will get more volume but vs a good run D.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2 | vs. NYG

· 15% on DK and 18% on FD

· D-Mont is a solid back in a good matchup but the game total is 36.5

Pivot RB

Darrell Williams KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CIN

· Around 5% on both sites

· CIN is 7th in rushing yards allowed per game (75yards), but they are allowing 6.7 rec and 47.5 rec yards per game as well. Williams is a great pass-catching back.

Rashaad Penny, SEA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET

· 4% on both sites

· DET ranked 24th allowing 103.2 Rush Yards, and 25th in rush TD's allowing 1 per game.

· Penny has 2 130+ yard games in his last 3 games and has another excellent matchup to exploit.

Elijah Mitchell, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.8 | vs. HOU

· Around 8% owned on both sites.

· Mitchell has received a full workload when he's returned from injury, this week should be no different. Can expect 20+ touches vs Hou. Sign me up.

· HOU ranked 31st allowing 121.2 Rush Yards (Last 9)

Bonus Pivot: D'Andre Swift is way underpriced on DK(6k) and faces Seattle who has allowed the most receptions to RB's on the year. Which is where Swift is the most dangerous. Will be around 7% owned on DK.

WR Chalk

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NYJ

· Around 22% on DK and 19% on FD.

· Mike Evans will be back so we cant expect 15 targets again but 8-12 Tom Brady targets is more than enough to get the job done.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. ATL

· Likely around 16% on both sites

· ATL ranked 24th allowing 1.0 Rec TDs to WR (Last 9)

· ATL ranked 27th allowing 164.3 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9)

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CIN

· Around 12% on both sites

· CIN is ranked 26th vs WR over the last 4 games

. Highest game total of the week

AJ Brown, TEN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. MIA

· Around 12% on both sites

· Brown had 16 targets last week in his first game back from injury.

· On the season MIA is 27th vs the WR, HOWEVER over the last 4 games, they are ranked 1st.

Pivot WR’s

Van Jefferson, LAR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. BAL

Odell Beckham, LAR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. BAL

· Van Jefferson: Around 5% on both sites

· OBJ: Around 7% on both sites.

· It's simple BAL is one of the worst teams in the league at allowing big plays. Jefferson and Beckham both have deep threat abilities.

· BAL ranked 32nd allowing 207.3 Rec Yards to WR (Last 9

I was tempted to add Cooper Kupp here since it looks like he may be around 10% on both sites which is too low for him. Since I try to only mention people who project lower than 8-9% owned I left him off.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SEA

· Around 5% on both sites.

· Putting up elite WR target share over the last 4 weeks. My one worry is that Swift being back takes away targets from St. Brown

· Seattle can be beaten by slot WRs

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7 | vs. NYJ

· 6% owned

· Evans catches TD's and is major leverage on Antonio Brown owners.

TE Chalk

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. WAS

· 15% on both sites

· WAS ranked 25th allowing 0.4 Rec TDs to TE (Last 9)

· PHI is no doubt in a good matchup to pass however, PHI has shown they want to run the ball. If WAS can't keep up in this game it may be a low-volume passing game for PHI.

Pivot TE:

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DAL

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· Without Hopkinda Ertz is getting a lot of looks in the red zone. Ertz is averaging 12 targets a game over the last 2 weeks

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.