NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Welcome, LineStar family I hope last week's article helped you! After a couple of good weeks with our pivots, we were off a bit last week. One thing to remember is that you do not want to play all pivots. You need to pick and chose where to get different. The chalk is chalk for a reason, you do not want a lineup full of 5% plays. You want a few low-owned guys sprinkled in. For instance, if you used Stafford, Kupp, and Higbee last week you were already different than 99.3% of the NFL $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire field. Kupp was chalk but Stafford and Higbee were both owned at around 7%. If you add in one lower owned piece and then jammed in all the chalk you would likely have a unique lineup in a large field tournament like the millionaire contest.

Now, let's start looking into week 4.

This week looks like the field will be going the Stud/dud route once again. The highest-priced RB's, WR's, and TE are getting the most ownership. Once again going with a balanced lineup will be a way to get different.

Let's dive into the fun!

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

As of writing this article, I believe the QB ownership should be fairly spread out. With no QB too high owned to fade them purely off ownership.

The highest 3 QB's currently look like:

1. Josh Allen 11%

2. Patrick Mahomes 11%

3. Matt Stafford 10%

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. HOU

·     Likely around 11% owned on both sites

·    Highest implied team total on the week (32)

·    Diggs and Beasley both look like they will likely be around 10-12% owned. While Sanders is likely to come in around 5-7%.

·    BUF doesn't stop passing with a big lead so there shouldn't be too much blowout risk here.

Pivot QB

Baker Mayfield, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | vs. MIN

·    Around 5% owned on both sites

·     MIN D has given up the 4th most fantasy points to the QB

·     51.5 is the highest total on the slate, CLE has 4th best odd to be the high scoring team on Sunday

·     Love OBJ to stack with him, along with Jefferson, Theilen or Cook opponent run back plays.

Kirk Cousins, MIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE

·     Ownership looks to be around 3%

·     "The Browns defense ranks 25th in pass DVOA through two weeks and has allowed 29.9 FPPG to QBs" -Ryan Humphries from the week 3 Main Slate Article. I don't want to add week 3 stats in because Chicago and Fields were absolutely awful.

·     Great stack options with Jefferson, Theilen, and Cook. Love the run-back spot for OBJ as well. This game could be a major shoot-out.

Russel Wilson, SEA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SF

·     Ownership looks to be around 5%

·     SF secondary is awful

·     Wilson has the same ceiling as the other top-tier QB's getting double the ownership.

·     Stack options: Metcalf, Lockett, Disley (Everett is out), and you can run it back with Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, or take a chance on the SF backfield.

RB Chalk

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYJ

·     Around 20% owned on both sites, and probably should be higher owned

·     I do not like playing him when he is high owned due to his TD dependence. HOWEVER, this week both Julio and Brown are out. They will have to lean on the run.

·     NYJ is better vs the run than the pass, but they are a bad D all around. Henry should light them up.

Alvin Kamara, MIN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. SEA

·     Around 15-17% owned on both sites

·     Kamara is a stud, and worthy of this ownership every week.

·     With minimal ownership difference, I would rather just get to Henry

Chubba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6k | vs. DAL

·     Around 20% owned on FD and 15% on DK

·     DAL D has been surprisingly solid the last couple of weeks.

·     Chubba played 80% of the snaps after CMC got hurt last week

Pivot RB

Chase Edmonds , ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | @ LAR

·    Around 5-7% owned on both sites.

·     LAR has a good defense all around, if they (LAR) get to an early lead it could mean double-digit targets for Chase.

·     While Chase may not get the goalline work, but he will be necessary for ARI to move the ball. This is a high floor play, and if he lucks into a TD he could easily crack the optimal lineup.

·     Could see 120 total yards plus 5-7 receptions very easily.

Darrell Henderson LAR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | @ ARI

·     Around 5% owned

·     Highest scoring game of the week

·     The LAR passing game will be highly owned, if Henderson lucks into a couple of TD's you will gain a lot of leverage on the field.

·     ARI gave up 150 yards to Cook and 134 yards to James Robinson, they are beatable on the ground.

WR Chalk

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ARI

·     Likely to be around 20-25% owned on both sites

·     Has shown great chemistry with Stafford

·     HUGE price jump on both sites

·     ARI secondary is very beatable

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

·     Will probably end up being around 20% owned

·     Facing a good defense, that has been missing players to start the season and getting multiple pieces back.

DJ Moore, CAR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DAL

·     Around 15-20% owned on both sites

·     Will likely be covered by Trevon Diggs most of the game, who is quickly becoming one of the better corners in the league.

·     Without CMC his target volume should go up.

Pivot WR’s

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CLE

·    51.5 pt total

·     CLE has been good vs the WR but got torched by Tyreek Hill then played Hou and CHI. I'm not buying the small sample size of them being good vs WR.

·     Around 5% owned

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SF

·     SF secondary has been bad, SF D has been giving up 24.66 real points per game. In those games, SF hasn't faced juggernauts either (DET, PHI, and GB).

·     Tyler Lockett was limited in practice this week with a hip injury

·     This game could end up being a shoot out

·     5% owned

Terrace Marshall, CAR | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. DAL

·     Saw his largest snap share (62%) in week 3, which could be due to no CMC.

·    IF Moore gets shadowed by Diggs, Marshall looks to benefit as he has been the second-highest targeted player per snap on CAR.

·     DAL has been middle of the road to WR's

·     1% owned, and leverage vs Moore owners.

TE Chalk

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. PHI

·     Around 20% on FD, and 15% on DK

·     He is almost always the most likely TE to be in the optimal lineup

. KC has the second high implied total and the offense pretty much runs through Kelce.

Pivot TE:

Noah Fant, DEN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. BAL

·     Den will have to throw and keep up with BAL offense

·     5% Owned on both sites

·     Key aspect to the DEN offense

·     BAL is giving up 7/rec 95/yards per game to the TE

Anthony Firsker, TEN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYJ

·     ~ 3% Owned on both sites

·     Practiced in full this week

·    TEN is without Brown and Jones, there will be lots of targets up for grabs

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.