NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Welcome, LineStar family we are back at it for Week 5!

This week looks like the field will be going somewhat balanced while also trying to fit in Derrick Henry. That means most people likely pay down at QB then have WR's in the 5-6k range, and punt at the TE position. Leaving us with likely a couple of ways to get different. We can go the stud/dud route or can get different by paying up at QB, and WR.

Let's dive in and take a closer look at the slate!

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

As of writing this article, I believe the QB ownership should be fairly spread out. With no QB too high owned to fade them purely off ownership.

The highest 3 QB's currently look like:

1. Tom Brady 12%

2. Dak Prescott 11%

3. Aaron Rodger 10%

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIA

· Likely around 12% owned on both sites

· 29 implied team points 3rd highest on the slate

· Good stacking options, although always hard to know who will be the guy with how much Brady spreads the ball around. AB~13-15% owned, Godwin~10-12% owned, Evans~8-10% owned, Brate~5% owned.

· MIA secondary is the strength of their defense, which means Leonard Fournette and RoJo could get extra work. Brady is all about winning and will keep calling running plays if it's working.

Pivot QB

Kirk Cousins, MIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· DET is awful, and MIN has the highest team implied total with 29.8pts.

· Good stack options with Jefferson, Adam Thielen, KJ Osborn, or even Conklin

Trey Lance, SF | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. ARI

(More of a DK play due to salary)

· Ownership will likely be around 7-10%

· ARI is giving up the 5th most rushing yards to QBs

· ARI secondary is very beatable, and SF has good stack options with Samuel and a cheap TE in Dwelley.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TEN

· Ownership looks to be around 2%

· TEN is absolutely awful, this game could end up be a little bit of a shoot-out.

· Lawrence seems to be picking up on the speed of the NFL game and made some great throws in week 4.

Note: Kyler Murray is around 9-10% owned and is in a terrific spot to break the slate. SF is giving up the 6th most points to QB's and is being beat on the ground and through the air. Good chance he will be the QB I use most.

RB Chalk

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. JAX

· Around 25% owned on both sites

· I do not like playing him when he is high owned due to his TD dependence. However, he is in a great matchup. Jax is giving up the 8th most points to RB.

· AJ Brown is back, so there is another weapon in the offense this week.

Leonard Fournette, TB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. MIA

· Around 18-20% owned on both sites

· Fournette seems to have taken the RB job, but don't count on that to continue. TB could get RoJo involved more in any game. Especially one that TB could have a large lead-in being 10 point favorites.

· Fournette has no TDs on the year and has only scored 3x his salary once this season.

Alvin Kamara, NO | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. WAS

· Around 15% owned on FD and 15% on DK

· WAS D is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to RB

· Has been playing 85% of snaps

Note: Samaje Perine, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. GB will likely be high owned IF Mixon is announced out. I'd expect he vaults to one of the higher owned DK plays if that happens. As of now it looks like Mixon will play but be limited.

Pivot RB

D'Andre Swift, DET | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ MIN

· Around 6-9% owned on both sites.

· MIN should dominate this game, but Swift is more dangerous in the passing game. A MIN early lead only helps Swift's fantasy floor. 29 targets in 4 games

· Could be a good run back option with MIN stack

Aaron Jones GB | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.9k | @ CIN

· Around 8% owned

· 2nd highest-scoring total of the week

· CIN has been decent vs the RB, keeping yardage totals low. Jones will likely need to find the end zone once or twice to pay off this salary.

· Leverage on a high owned Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams

WR Chalk

Jakobi Meyers, NE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. ARI

· Likely to be around 18% on DK and 15-18% on FD

· NE only has a 24.3, 10th highest on the slate

· While Jakobi has the most targets on the team, he only has 3 red-zone targets on the year

· NE is a 9 point favorite. This could easily be a Damien Harris game, which would be great leverage on Jakobi Meyers.

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. PIT

· Will probably end up being around 18% owned on DK and 25% on FD

· 2nd highest game total on the slate, GB has the 4th highest team total

· Adams has insane usage and should be in line for more TDs. He has 6 red-zone targets on the year and that has only resulted in 1 TD. With the efficiency that is the Rodgers to Adams connection, there should be a move to correct this low RZtarget to TD ratio.

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. MIA

· Around 15% owned on DK and 10% on FD

· AB's snap counts: 65%, 44%, and 51%. His snap counts show he's the 3rd or 4th option, but he's the highest owned TB WR this week.

Kenny Golladay, NYG | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DAL

· Around 15-20% owned on FD, 8-10% on DK

· Highest totaled game on the slate

· DAL is giving up the 3rd most points to WR.

· Sheppard and Slayton are out again, so he should have the volume needed.

Pivot WR’s

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. ARI

· 49 pt total and ARI is giving up the 10th most points to WR

· Deebo is getting a huge target share, and Kittle was just put on IR.

· Around 8% owned

Deandre Hopkins, SEA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SF

· SF secondary has been bad, SF D has been giving up 25.5 real points per game.

· Hopkins is Murray's number 1 target and they have an implied points total of 26.8. Max Williams and Chase Edmonds are Questionable, if either is out there will be more targets up for grabs.

· 8% owned for a stud WR in one of the best games on the slate. All those factors don't come around much

Adam Thielen, MIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

· Highest implied team total.

· Thielen has 3 fewer targets than Jefferson on the year, but is used in the red zone MORE than Jefferson and is 6-8% less owned than Jefferson.

· DET can not stop anyone

· Around 7% owned

Marvin Jones Jr, JAX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. TEN

· TEN is giving up the most points to the WR position

· Laviska has got hyped up all week long by fantasy sports media because he caught 1 deep target, but MJJ is still the #1 WR in JAX. Making Jones leverage vs the Laviska owners.

· No Chark = more targets to Jones/Laviska

· Around 2% owned

TE Chalk

Darren Waller, LV | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CHI

· Around 15-17% on FD, and 12-14% on DK

· CHI has given up the 8th least amount of points to TE

. LV has 25 implied points, the most likely guy to score is waller. He has the second-most red zone targets on the main slate.

Pivot TE:

Mike Gesicki, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. TB

· Is being used as a WR, has only 5 fewer targets than Waddle on the year

· 5% Owned on both sites

· MIA will likely be playing from behind and forced to throw a lot.

· TB is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to TE

Dalton Schultz,DAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYG

· DAL has made Schultz a key aspect of their offense

· Giants are giving up the 5th most points to TE

· has an 18% target share

· Highest totaled game on the main slate

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.