NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy Saturday LineStar family! How is it already week 6? Without further ado, let's dive into the fun...

We have some chalky spots at RB this week, the field looks to be paying down a little at RB then up at QB/WR. If you pay up at RB you could be getting different from the chalky build.

With only 10 games ownership percentages are a little higher than the first few weeks. Make sure you don't have too many chalk guys in your lineup.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

This is the first week that we aren't seeing super flat QB ownership.

The highest 3 QB's currently look like:

1. Patrick Mahomes 17%

2. Lamar Jackson 15%

3. Matthew Stafford 11%

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. WAS

· Likely around 17-19% owned on both sites

· Highest team implied total on the slate at 30.8 pts

· Good stacking options, although Hill, Kelce, and Darrell Williams. All will be fairly chalky. With Kelce salary down on DK you could see a decent amount of Hill and Kelce lineups.

· WAS D has been absolutely awful giving up 301.4 yards per game and 2.8 TD's to QBs. On average they are giving up 29.8 DK points and 28.1 FD points. They haven't faced a murderous row of QBs either (Herbert, Jones, Allen, Ryan, Winston), outside of Herbert and Allen

Pivot QB

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CLE

· Around 5% owned on both sites

· Herbert just went 398 and 4TDs then 29 yards and 1 rush TD

· CLE is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to the QB position

· Kyler has the same ceiling as Mahomes/Jackson at 1/3 the ownership

Taylor Heinicke, WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. KC

· Ownership will likely be around 8% on both sites

· KC is giving up the MOST fantasy points to QBs

· Heinicke is cheap and he has lots of cheap options to stack him with, Mclaurin (not cheap but worth his price), Seals-Jones, Carter (if Samuels, brown are out again), and Humphries.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

· Ownership looks to be around 5%

· DET can't stop anyone, Jefferson had 100 yards receiving in the first half last game.

· With Perine out and Mixon coming back from an injury CIN may have to rely more on their passing. This is a riskier play, but there is solid upside if this idea were to play out.

RB Chalk

Kareem Hunt, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ARI

· Around 35% owned on both sites

· Chubb is out giving Hunt more volume. Last year when Chubb was out Hunt played 70-90% of the snaps for those 4 games. We can expect something similar this week. My guess is closer to 70% than 90. They have Felton and Johnson who will take some snaps.

· Reasons to consider fading: AZ has a tough run D, allowing 10th least amount of points to the RB, in the 4 games Chubb was out last year Hunt scored 18, 8, 19, and 9 fantasy points. Just due to the extra volume it doesn't mean he's going to smash.

Khalil Herbert, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. GB

· Around 20-22% owned on both sites

· Herbert is likely in line to get 60-70% of the snaps.

· GB is middle of the road vs RB, however, GB is worst against pass-catching RBs and that is NOT Herbert. In 5 years of college football, he recorded 34 receptions. Ryan Nall could be used quite a bit IF GB gets out to a lead and CHI is passing a lot.

Darrell Henderson, LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. NYG

· Around 20% on both sites

· NYG D is giving up the 8th most fantasy points to RB

· Has been playing 66-90% of snaps, averaging 17.5 touches a game

· 2nd highest team total on the slate and big favorites

Pivot RB

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | @ DET

· Around 7-10% owned on both sites.

· Mixon is coming back from injury so there is some risk that he doesn't have a full workload. However, if he has a full workload he has a great chance for 100 yards and 1-2 TDs.

· Det is giving up the most fantasy points to RBs on this slate

Chuba Hubbard CAR | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ MIN

· Around 10% owned

· MIN giving up the 10th most fantasy points to RB

· Hubbard will have the same workload that Hunt will have at 1/3 the ownership.

· He is involved in the running and passing game (13 targets over 2.5 games since CMC has been out)

WR Chalk

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CHI

· Likely to be around 18% on DK and 20-25% on FD

· GB only has a 25, 8th highest on the slate

· Adams is always in play. He is a stud and gets a giant target share from one of the best QBs in the league

· CHI is middle of the road vs WRs, Adams history vs CHI is just okay

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYG

· Likely around 17% owned on both sites

· 2nd highest game total on the slate

· NYG offense is beat up, can they score enough points to keep LAR throwing? Aaron Donald vs a beat-up O-line usually doesn't go too well for opposing offenses.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. WAS

· Around 15% owned on both sites

· It's Tyreek Hill's turn to burn the WAS D deep. They have been burned by Kupp (7 for 108 1td), Sheppard (9 for 94), E.Sanders (6 for 94 2 TDs), Cordarrell Patterson (5 for 82 3TDs), Marquez Callaway (4 for 85 2 TDs)

Pivot WR’s

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DET

· Last week Justin Jefferson was able to put up 100 yards in the first half, Chase has the same kind of explosive ability

· If Mixon isn't getting his full volume then they will have to pass more

· Around 10% owned

Odell Beckham Jr, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | vs. ARI

· Not going to lie, I puked a little typing his name, but there is no Landry or Chubb. If CLE has to pass he should get the targets.

· ARI has a strong run D and this is leverage on Hunt owners

· Likely below 5% owned on both sites. This is a game theory play.

Jakobi Meyers, NE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DAL

· 50.5 Total with only a -3.5 spread, Vegas thinks NE will be able to score

· Dallas is giving up the 4th MOST points to the WR position.

· Jakobi is getting lots of targets

· Around 9% owned

There are lots of value WRs I like this week that should be low owned:

All of these guys look to be under 5% owned:

Rondale Moore

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Darius Slayton

Van Jefferson

Devin Duvernay

Adam Humphries

DeAndre Carter (had 8 targets last week)

TY Hilton (total wildcard this week, no clue how much he plays)

TE Chalk

Mark Andrews is currently the highest owned TE, but I expect it to end up being Travis Kelce since his price has been pushed down to 7k on Draftkings, over 1 k lower than it's been all season on the main slate.

Mark Andrews BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC

· Around 18% on both sites

· 2nd highest-scoring game of the week

. Prices came out before his huge Monday performance keeping his price low.

. Chargers have given up the most fantasy points to the TE this season.

Pivot TE:

Dalton Schultz, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. NE

· 5% Owned on both sites

· Schultz has been a focal point of the DAL offense

· 3rd highest implied team total

· Has an 18% target share

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.