NFL DFS Chalk Report Written By: LineStar Tyler

WHY THIS MATTERS 👇

Happy Saturday LineStar family!

We have another 10 game slate, with only 2 games having over 50 point totals.

The main question for your lineups this week is do you Derrick Henry or not? I think most of the field will be in the stud/dud lineup build. If you stay balanced we should be getting away from the chalky build.

Chalk QB 🤦🏻

This is the first week that we aren't seeing super flat QB ownership.

The highest 3 QB's currently look like:

1. Patrick Mahomes 16%

2. Jalen Hurts 14%

3. Matthew Stafford 11%

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. WAS

·     Likely around 16-18% owned on both sites

·     3rd highest team implied total at 31. (Rams are highest at 33.3)

·    Good stacking options, although Hill, Kelce, and Darrell Williams. All will be fairly chalky.

·    TEN D has been awful all season. My only worry here is that TEN will likely run the ball a TON and try to keep the ball away from Mahomes as much as possible

Pivot QB

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. HOU

·     Around 7% owned on both sites

·     Kyler's team has the second-lowest odds at being the highest-scoring team tomorrow. But unlike Mahomes/Stafford he is coming in a bit under-owned.

·     HOU D is awful

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. CHI

·     CHI is without Akeem Hicks and Robert Quinn, and Kahlil Mack is questionable on Defense.

·     TB has the 3rd highest odds at being Sunday highest scoring team

·     Coming in around 7% on both sites.

·     No AB or Gronk, which means he has underpriced stacking options.

Aaron Rodgers, GB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

·     Ownership looks to be around 6%

·     WAS is giving up the MOST points to opposing QBs

·     5th lowest odds of being the highest-scoring team.

RB Chalk

Darrell Henderson, LAR | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

·     Around 20-25% owned on both sites

·    You play RBs vs DET. Det is giving up the most points to the RB position

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11k | vs. KC

·     Around 20-22% owned on both sites

·     Henry is likely still too low owned at 20%, the Titans best chance to win is to control the ball and give it to Henry 30+ times.

Josh Jacobs, LV | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PHI

·     Around 20% on FD, only 10% on DK

·     PHI D is giving up the 5th most points to the RB position

·     I don't get his ownership. He isn't super cheap and he's been fairly mediocre + he doesn't catch many passes.

Darrell Williams looks to be the 3rd highest owned RB on DK at around 15%

Pivot RB

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ BAL

·    Around 5% owned on both sites.

·     Mixon gets a ton of volume and is involved in the run and pass game. Even if BAL gets out to a lead he will have a chance to put up points. He had 6 targets last game.

·     BAL is giving up 6 rec and 67 rec yards to the RB per game to go along with 69 rushing yards per game. Mixon can easily have over 100 yards. Then it just comes down to if he can punch one in for 6 or not.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | @ HOU

·    Around 7-8% owned on both sites.

·     HOU D can not stop anyone. We saw last week that if ARI gets out to a big lead they will lean on Conner to close the game out.

·    HOU is allowing 122 rushing yards per game

Disclaimer: Do not play Kyler Murray and James Conner together. Conner isn't catching passes in the offense and has lived at the goal line.

I am not a huge fan of the pivot options at RB this week. I might be getting different somewhere else in my lineups this week.

WR Chalk

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

·     Likely around 20% owned on both sites

·     Highest implied total on the slate

·     Kupp is Stafford's favorite option in a game where Stafford SHOULD be able to do whatever he wants. The question is will the Rams keep their foot on the gas if they get out to a big lead.

·     DET has been giving all the fantasy points to RB's this season.

Calvin Ridley, ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. MIA

·     Likely around 18-20% owned on both sites

·     Ryan Humphries sneaky contrarian stack game.

·     MIA is giving up 245 yards to WR's over the last 4 games along with 1.5TDs

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TEN

·     Around 18-20% owned on both sites

· TEN D can't stop anyone.

· Tyreek is nursing a strained quad, he only played 57% of the snaps last week. If this happens again he is coming in over-owned.

Pivot WR’s

Chris Godwin, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CHI

·     With AB and Gronk out, Godwin should have an even higher target volume. I like Mike Evans too (around 6%owned), Godwin just has a higher floor as he gets more targets.

·     TB Bucs should be able to score at ease vs a beat-up CHI D.

·     Around 8% owned

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | vs. BAL

·     I think this CIN vs BAL game is going under-owned and I want pieces of it.

·     BAL D has been beatable all year except week 6 vs LAC. They may have figured something out, but if not there will be points scored in this game.

·    Around 5% owned on both sites

Marquise Brown, BAL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

·     Bateman is going to be fairly high owned. For good reason, but this is making Brown go under-owned. If anyone can break the slate at 5.8k it's this guy.

·     Cin has been tough vs WRs but I think it's a little deceiving as they have played, DET, PIT, CHI, JAC, GB, and MIN. 3 of the 6 teams have awful WRs or the QB can't get the ball to the WRs

·     Around 9% owned

TE Chalk

Darren Waller is the chalkiest TE on FD at around 15% while Kelce is the highest on DK at around 13-15%. I will write about Kelce as I think he should be the chalkiest on both sites.

Travis Kelce KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. TEN

·     Around 14% on both sites

·     Highest-scoring game of the week

. If Tyreek is still banged up Kelce could get even more looks

. On Paper it looks like TEN is good vs the TE but LAR, CIN, CLE, DET, LV, and GB. They have played 1 good TE, and two average TEs. I think their #2 vs the TE rating is overrated. I will personally probably play a decent amount of Kelce.

Pivot TE:

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIA

·     5% Owned on both sites

·     Miami has been awful vs the pass.

·     Ridley will be high owned, if Pitts gets the TDs you will get leverage on the field

·    ATL is coming off the bye, good chance Pitts becomes more of a focus for ATL. NFL can have a steep learning curve, but Pitts appears to be learning quickly and getting lots of targets(7/game).

Thank You for reading, and good luck this week!

If you have any questions please hit me up in the LineStar Chat @LineStarTyler.