By: Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO in LineStar Chat

The long wait is over. Meaningful, live-action football is just around the corner as the NFL enters its 100th season and LineStar is gearing up to make sure you’re covered from week one all the way through to the Super Bowl! The goal of this particular newsletter is to give you an idea of what sort of content you can expect to receive throughout the season and I’ll also be covering some general NFL DFS tips and strategies ranging across bankroll management, contest selection, and methods to help you find optimal plays at each NFL DFS position. I’ll also highlight some helpful LineStar tools that you should be using each week. Feel free to bookmark this guide in order to refer back to at any point in the season! Without further adieu, let’s kick this NFL season off!

The Latest From LineStar:

• All-new LineStar Android featuring a new style of advanced lineup construction.

• iOS/Web updates coming soon!

• Breaking News / Injury Reports by Rotowire

• Lots of new content

On top of the incredible DFS tools that LineStar provides you on both web and mobile platforms, what else can you expect content-wise? Here’s what we have in store:

LineStar PreSnap Podcast with Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) & Chris Meaney (@ChrisMeaney)

> Two shows every week. One will be aimed towards reviewing the previous week while the other will focus on a rundown of the games ahead.

Subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast wherever you listen to Pods!

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

NFL Gambling Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Mike Randle (@RandleRant)

> Finding edges to be had in the betting world. Interpreting and breaking down Vegas moneylines, point totals, and more in order to help bolster your bankroll on your preferred betting site.

"NFL Takeaways" with Greg Landry (@GP_Landry)

> Released every Monday

> Looking back on the previous week’s slate with a focus on emerging trends and whether they’re worth any merit. Also, a brief review of the previous week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker.

"LineStar Weekly Pylon" by yours truly, Ryan Humphries (@NitroDFS)

> Released every Wednesday.

> A comprehensive NFL DFS breakdown of the main slate for the week ahead featuring important story lines, potential high-scoring games to target, and recommended plays for every position at different price points.

As you can see, there should be no shortage of NFL goodness to keep you occupied throughout each week! We’re always open to subscriber feedback so if there is something you’d like to see covered, feel free to hit up any of us in LineStar chat or on Twitter. Here’s to an incredible season!

NFL Bankroll Management & Contest Selection Strategy

Many of you reading this are well-seasoned NFL DFS veterans and I absolutely am not here to press my own personal strategies onto anyone. Our subscribers are made up of DFS players with different degrees of experience, varying bankroll balances, their own approaches, and take on their own personal levels of risk each week. If you have a plan in place that works for you and you’re satisfied with it then, by all means, disregard this section! Personally speaking, I got my start on NFL DFS back in 2011 so this will be my eighth year playing. By now I feel confident in my own methodology and I’m just going to briefly outline what I have found to work for me over the years. Perhaps it may help folks who are newer to the sport or DFS in general.

Football is the most popular sport in America so it should be no surprise that the DFS websites respond accordingly by posting GPPs (guaranteed prize pools) that feature massive five, six, and seven figure payouts. The thing is, while it is definitely an adrenaline rush chasing those huge prizes, 99.9% of DFS players don’t have the bankroll to routinely throw $3,000 on a $20 entry GPP with a 150-max entry limit -- which is often times what it takes to win one of those contests. Not every time of course -- plenty of guys have won the DraftKings Milly Maker and other large field GPPs off of a “single bullet” entry. However, you have to be aware of just how stacked the odds are against you if you’re not deploying an MME (mass multi-entry) strategy.

What am I getting at here? CASH GAMES! They’re not everyone’s cup of tea but if you want to routinely turn a profit via cash games (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, triple-ups, three-mans) then NFL is one of the best sports to do that in. There is still plenty of volatility in football but it is nowhere near the level of a sport like MLB or NHL. For me personally, I will try to stick to spending around 10% to 15% of my bankroll across my weekly NFL spend. Of that, roughly 75% of my entry fees will go towards cash games, the other ~25% will go towards GPPs (some single entry or three entry max), winner-take-alls, multipliers, satellites, 10-mans, etc. You don’t want to be one of those guys who constantly has to make deposits every couple of weeks as a result of poor bankroll management and contest selection. From what I’ve seen, it’s the number one reason guys give up, they continuously blow too much of their bankroll on sub-optimal contests and/or simply risk too much money. No one profits every single week, even the professionals. I consider DFS to be a sort of “skilled gambling” where well-informed research and intelligent game theory practices can make you a winner but, at the end of the day, injuries and unexpected performances happen so no matter what sort of hot streak you’re riding, a down week is inevitable.

It really is exhilarating chasing a big score in those massive tournaments but, trust me, this is the way to take DFS from just a hobby of yours into actually making money to pay some bills, fund a vacation, update your wardrobe, or what have you. You can still throw down in GPPs but, barring some crazy luck, more often than not you will not be turning a consistent profit if you’re exclusively playing those sorts of tournaments. Use cash games to stay both profitable and to supplement your GPP spending.

Also, here’s contest selection strategy that I’ve found to be useful in recent seasons, specifically for cash games: If a particular week’s Thursday Night Football game carries a low total (say around 40 points), throw out a lineup in the “Thursday through Sunday/Monday” slates and fade the TNF game entirely -- with the occasional exception of D/STs. Thursday night games are often low-scoring anyway (short week, fatigue/injury factors, less time for coaches to create an optimal game plan, etc) but DFS players will force in players from that game in their lineups regardless. If it turns out to be a 17-9 snoozefest, as TNF games so often do, then anyone who played one or multiple guys from that game are at a major disadvantage. Meanwhile, you can simply play your preferred, and likely more optimal, Sunday/Monday players and late swap guys around if need be. I’ve also noticed that some people in those contests forget to keep up with their lineups and will leave in players that get injured or scratched later in the week. This may not result in a huge edge every time but often eliminating even around 5-10% of the field makes this approach lucrative and worth exploring.

NFL DFS Strategies

Here I’m going to discuss some general strategies and statistics to focus on for specific positions which should help you throughout the season with your lineup construction. Once the season gets going you will see that much of the info below will be implemented within my approach towards recommended plays and game stacks in the Weekly Pylon newsletters.

Game Stacks:

Stacking lineups full of players from specific games can be a profitable, yet at times risky, approach. As a result, heavy game stacking is typically recommended primarily for GPP builds. So what would I be looking for when pinpointing games to stack?

1) High Vegas Totals (Bonus if the spread is close)

> This is pretty straightforward. NFL game totals usually max out around 55 points, and that’s typically going to be relatively uncommon. Any game that has an implied total near or above 50 points clearly indicates that the sports books are anticipating plenty of scoring.

> In these high-total games, if the point spread is around three points or less, we can assume that the bookies are predicting said game to have a high likelihood of staying close -- thus keeping offenses in “attack mode” which will often produce shootouts. Obviously, shootouts result in high fantasy scores. Think back to last year in week 11 when the Rams and Chiefs combined for 105 points in a 54-51 offensive frenzy. Sure, that result was a major outlier and a lot of plays in that game were chalky (highly owned) but that game carried a high total and close spread so it was an easy target. To have cashed big that day you absolutely NEEDED several Rams/Chiefs players in your lineup(s).

2) Match-Ups Featuring Poor Defenses

> This typically goes hand-in-hand with high point totals. I’m more or less stating the obvious once again but two teams facing each other that possess good to great offenses with bad or depleted defenses (in 2018 think Buccaneers, Falcons, Chiefs, and, for a while, the Saints) is a good recipe for a shootout. It may take us getting three or four weeks into the season before we really have a good idea on which defenses have improved and who has gotten worse or stayed the same, so I wouldn’t rely on this too heavily in the early goings.

3) Offensive Snap Rates

> This is an angle that can sometimes get lost in certain Vegas totals and you’ll see me mention offensive snap rates at times in the newsletters. The average seconds it took for each offense to run a play across the NFL last season was 29.05 seconds (per Football Outsiders). The Colts (26.30 sec/play) were the fastest paced offense while the Chargers (30.25 sec/play) were the slowest. This may not seem like a major difference but it can certainly add up over the course of a 60 minute game. Even a handful of additional plays (above average) can make a huge difference in providing extra opportunities for players in your lineups. You also have to account for the opposing team of a fast-paced offense gaining some extra opportunities as well. Somewhat similar to the NBA, slower-paced offenses get a boost up when playing fast-paced teams due to receiving extra time of possession.

4) Targeting Domed Match-Ups

> I talked about this in the week 11 edition of the Weekly Pylon last year so I will just copy and paste what I had written down: Pinnacle.com did a study on scoring in the NFL between 2003 to 2015. They found that the average point totals in games taking place outdoors to be 42.4 PPG versus 46.2 PPG for games taking place inside of domes (or retractable roofed stadiums). That is right about a 9% increase in point production. In DFS that sort of scoring advantage can make a huge impact and should be taken into consideration during roster construction.

Quarterbacks:

Quarterback is often the easiest position to fill out in lineups and they possess the highest floors. The difference between the highest-scoring quarterback and the sixth or seventh-highest scoring quarterback in most weeks is usually only going to be a few fantasy points. It’s tempting to want to lock in a guy like Patrick Mahomes all the time but many weeks I find it safer to simply play the match-ups and look for value by paying down at the position, particularly in cash game builds. Here are some things to consider when selecting quarterbacks in DFS:

1) Opposing Pass Defense

> Even mediocre or bad starting quarterbacks can fall into play if they get a shot at a bottom 10-ish pass defense. Targeting poor pass defenses who allow a high YPA (yards per attempt) is one of the easier ways to find quarterback values.

2) Attempts Per Game + Completion Percentage

> Another couple straightforward stats to target. Aside from rushing QBs, the best fantasy quarterbacks are going to throw a lot and complete a high percentage of those passes. Look for guys who meet both those criteria and also face a bad defense for easily identifiable QB plays. About 35 attempts/game and a 67% completion rate is a solid baseline to look for. LineStar also shows you which QBs are getting into a groove by displaying those stats (and more) from their previous four games.

3) QB + Pass Catcher Stacking

> In all formats it’s usually a good idea to draft at least one of your quarterback’s pass catchers. This is more often than not going to be a wide receiver but plenty of exceptions can be made for tight ends and versatile running backs as well. The premise here is simple -- if you anticipate your quarterback is going to have a productive day, then his pass catchers will be showing up prominently in the box score as well, right? Some exceptions can be made here, particularly with QBs who have rushing ability (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, etc). But if I draft a prototypical pocket passer at QB, in cash games I’m generally going to stack one, occasionally two, of his pass catchers along with him. In GPPs, I recommend taking at least two but rarely more than three pass catchers. The reason with that being you don’t want to put too many eggs in one basket -- also, how often do more than three pass catchers on the same team produce 15 to 20+ fantasy points? Not often.

4) Factoring in Weather

> I’ve seen studies showing that rain doesn’t have a major impact on QB fantasy scoring but I’d be lying if I said I ever felt really 100% confident about deploying a passer who will be playing in really wet or snowy conditions. Hearkening back to the bit mentioned above about domed stadiums, ideally my QBs would be playing in a indoors for higher potential scores. However, that isn’t always the optimal route to go. Wind is really the key factor when it comes to decision making at quarterback pertaining to weather concerns. I will almost never play a QB if sustained winds are projected at 20+ mph (which will usually bring even higher gusts), even in GPPs. No matter what anyone says, that’s going to have an affect on ball flight and often force a ton of short to intermediate passes. Some quarterbacks can turn that sort of ‘dink and dunk’ game plan into a big fantasy day but it’s rarely a safe bet.

Running Backs:

The running back position is often times going to require you to spend a hefty amount of your allotted budget unless injuries open up opportunities for lower-priced backups. Workhorse RBs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. More often than not, in cash games, I focus on deploying three RBs by using my FLEX position on a running back. Simply put, they’re guaranteed the most touches and have the most favorable odds of reaching the endzone. Here are some factors that should help with your decision making at the position:

1) Volume (Rushes & Pass Targets)

> Volume, volume, volume. It’s no secret that for any given week you’ll be giving yourself the best chance of garnering fantasy production if you draft workhorse running backs expected to see upwards of 20+ touches. Pretty simple here -- more opportunities creates more chances at chunk yardage and touchdown potential. On full PPR sites like DraftKings, an edge should be given to RBs who routinely see 5+ targets per game. While targets and receptions are still important on half PPR sites like FanDuel, it’s not as high of a priority.

2) Run Defense

> Again, keeping it simple here. A stud RB facing a poor run defense rarely disappoints. Some offenses are worse at covering pass catching running backs as well (think Atlanta and Indianapolis last season) so an edge can be given to sure-handed receiving backs in those match-ups.

3) Offensive Snap Percentage

> Here are the top three running backs from last year who led the league in offensive snap percentage: Christian McCaffrey (91.3%), Saquon Barkley (83%), and Ezekiel Elliot (82.6%). My guess is those are some guys you’re targeting within the first few picks of your season-long fantasy football leagues, right? More time on the field will obviously lead to more opportunity. The best way to use this during the season is by picking up on offensive trends as a running back emerges into becoming more of a focal point in an offense. If you notice an RB in on 75+% of their team’s offensive snaps in the previous week or two, you’re able to identify a potential trend. Perhaps they may have not done so hot in those previous games but maybe it was due to tough match-ups or a poor game script. If all of a sudden that RB who has seen a ton of snaps is in line for a cushy match-up against a poor run defense, be ahead of the curve and trust their potential opportunity over recent performance.

4) Target RBs on Heavily Favored Teams

> This doesn’t exactly apply so much to RBs who are strictly more of third down backs and pass-catching specialists (think James White, Tarik Cohen, Nyheim Hines, etc). If a team is favored by a touchdown or more then this typically leads to a positive game script for early down running backs. In an ideal world, just about every NFL coach wouldn’t air it out all game. They’d rather get a lead and use their running game to churn out yards, wear down the defense, and run out the clock. Keep this in mind especially when teams head into a week as a double-digit favorite. This will routinely result in a bump up in a traditional RB’s workload.

5) Pair Stud RBs with Their Team’s D/ST

> This is more of a game theory tip. If a running back is getting a ton of usage on the ground then the odds are that they’re controlling the clock as their well-rested defense is holding its own by limiting the opposition to low production. This isn’t something you have to do all the time but I’ve found plenty of positive correlation with pairing one of my RBs with their D/ST. It’s somewhat of a spin on “QB + pass catcher” stacking but isn’t nearly as popular or talked about.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

WRs and TEs are easily the most volatile positions in NFL DFS -- WRs especially. It’s often times perfectly fine to roll out a stud receiver or two as long as you’re not sacrificing too much at other positions. But this is also where you can pay down into the mid-range and find plenty of suitable guys with solid floors and strong ceilings or get risky and take some boom/bust fliers at rock bottom salaries. Here are some factors that help me decide on my wide receivers in any given week:

1) Targets Per Game

> Getting the simplest thing out of the way. Just like the running back position, the more volume a receiver gets, the more fantasy scoring upside he’ll have. If I’m paying top dollar for a receiver, I want somewhere in the range of nine or ten targets/game. Period. Otherwise you’ll be relying too heavily on a big play or a touchdown -- which isn’t the easiest thing to predict.

2) Target Share & Catch Rate

> The best receivers in the league are going to command at least 25% of their teams targets. The top five WRs in target share last year were as follows: DeAndre Hopkins (32%), Michael Thomas (29%), Keenan Allen (29%), Davante Adams (29%), and Julio Jones (28%). All studs, right? Of course. But you can also find guys who stand out at cheaper price points. For example, Corey Davis ranked 11th in the NFL with a 26% target share. He didn’t have anywhere near the season as those other gentlemen but picking up on a team’s clear desire to get one specific player the ball is worth recognizing. You also want all of that attention to turn into points, so catch rate (or catch percentage) is a good statistic to look at as well. Michael Thomas led the league with an 85.03% catch rate in 2018 but he was a major outlier. Typically, any sort of catch rate around 70% is really strong. Quarterbacks love guys who catch their passes. Not much of a shocker there.

3) aDOT (Average Depth of Target)

> aDOT is a stat you’ll see me mention often, especially when it comes to punt plays and boom/bust wide receivers -- ideal for GPPs. A high aDOT indicates a quarterback is looking for that receiver as a deep threat. Deep threats aren’t consistent or reliable but they do produce big plays. Among players with at least 50 targets last year, DeSean Jackson led the league with an aDOT of 18.9 yards. That’s a name that shouldn’t surprise you when the topic is “deep threats.” It’s all dependent on what sort of target volume a receiver is seeing but typically around a 13.5 yard aDOT is where you’ll tend to notice which guys are separating themselves as capable downfield threats. Last year’s target leader, Julio Jones (169 targets), possessed a very strong 14.3 yard aDOT. Combined with his target share, it’s no surprise that he dominated most weeks. On a lesser scale, these metrics really help with finding mid-range value plays as well.

4) RedZone Targets

> Touchdowns aren’t easily prognosticated for receivers but if there’s one way to most safely predict them, it’s through RedZone targets. Offenses scheme with great intent on delivering the ball to certain guys when they’re knocking on the door of the enemy’s endzone. Among WRs, last year's top three in RedZone targets were Davante Adams (32 targets, 16 completions, 12 RedZone TDs), Michael Thomas (31/24/7), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (29/15/5). Among TEs, your leaders included Travis Kelce (30/19/9), Zach Ertz (28/16/7), and Eric Ebron (22/12/11). I’m willing to bet that you played those guys in a ton of your DFS lineups last year, for good reason. Obviously the studs are going to excel here at the top but RedZone targets are a good way to find cheap tight end and receiver plays who have solid TD upside.

5) Cornerback Match-Ups -- Emphasis: Shadow Coverage Cornerbacks

> Sometimes when it comes to selecting your receivers, grouping an entire defense’s pass coverage together by looking at one or two statistics won’t paint the full picture. Typically around a dozen NFL defenses will utilize their top shutdown cornerback in shadow coverage on the opposing team’s top receiver -- e.g. the Jaguars (Jalen Ramsey), the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), the Lions (Darius Slay), the Bills (Tre’Davious White), among others. Usually offensive coaches are going to be aware of this and will game plan accordingly to get their top WR into the slot or deploy gimmick plays and formations to get them the ball. Still, depending on the shadow corner, this can absolutely impact a receiver’s expected performance. Keep this in mind throughout the season and track how teams are using their top DBs versus opposing WR1s. In some cases, secondary receivers end up seeing increased targets as a result of shadow coverage on their team’s top wideout.

Defenses and Special Teams

D/ST is the ‘position’ that requires the least amount of research in any given week. They can certainly be volatile and produce huge scores (or fat goose eggs) but that can also make it a good position to pay down for. Saving even just a few hundred bucks on a D/ST could be the difference between your ability to upgrade Stefon Diggs to Julio Jones. Here are a few things to consider when selecting D/STs:

1) Target Poor Opposing Offenses with Low Implied Point Totals

> This is as unambiguous as it gets. If a defense is facing a terrible offense that isn’t expected to score a lot of points, consider them a solid play.

2) Attack Pass-Happy Offenses

> This brings a little bit of risk into the mix but if a defense is facing a quarterback who drops back 35+ times a game, that’s just more opportunity to produce sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns. A heavily pass-oriented offense also threatens to score more points but they’re also often responsible for huge opposing D/ST scores.

3) “Double Dip” your D/ST with skill position players on the same team

> I hit on this above (final bullet point in the RB section) but to add onto “D/ST stacking,” there are a few teams out there who will routinely use productive offensive weapons as their kick returner/punt returner -- e.g. Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), Tarik Cohen (Bears), Dede Westbrook (Jaguars). It’s a very rare occasion that a KR/PR takes one to the house and an even rarer scenario where they score a special teams touchdown AND have a really productive day on offense but when the “double dip” hits, boy is it nice. This is definitely more of a risk/reward GPP strategy.

Highlighting LineStar Tools

There are a load of tools, data, and info that LineStar provides. The website and apps are constantly improving for the better. Be sure to take full advantage of all the gadgets and gizmos in order to strengthen your DFS arsenal!

Plenty of Advanced Sorters to help you pinpoint optimal plays:

Use the customizable "Stack Finder" to help maximize potential upside:

The "Daily Dashboard" gives you an all-in-one look at the week's starting lineups along with Vegas info, "Hot/Cold" players, salary changes, and players that have a knack for appearing in perfect lineups!

Snag some insight into better potential plays on the "Matchups" page. See how specific players and positions have fared in the same matchups from previous weeks! All slates included.

Live up-to-the minute scoring for any slate!

In-depth snap data! Find out who is seeing the field the most and who may be making the most of their given opportunities!

Breaking news across the NFL as it happens with live tweets from beat reporters from across the league!

There are numerous other features and tools at your disposal included in your LineStar subscription. The best advice is to simply explore everything for yourself and start building on your personalized strategy today!

That will wrap us up for the 2019 LineStar NFL Preview & Strategy Guide! Here’s to a ton of green screens, steady cash, and GPP take downs for the LineStar members out there! Stay tuned for all of the podcasts and content that are just beyond the horizon. Best of luck!

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