By: Ryan Humphries

@Ryan_Humphries on Twitter | @N1TRO in LineStar Chat

We've done it! We are finally on the doorstep of a new NFL season. I believe we can all agree, this off-season felt especially long for all the obvious reasons. Now it's time to strap into the driver's seat because football is here to give you somewhat of a reprieve from the hellscape that is 2020 and LineStar has got you covered from week one all the way through to Super Bowl LV!

The goal of this particular newsletter is to give you an idea of what sort of content you can expect to receive throughout the season and I’ll also be covering some general NFL DFS tips and strategies ranging across bankroll management, contest selection, and methods to help you find optimal plays at each NFL DFS position. I’ll also highlight some helpful LineStar tools that you should be using each week. Feel free to bookmark this guide in case you may want to refer back to it at any point in the season! Without further adieu, let’s kick this NFL season off!

The Latest From LineStar:

On top of the incredible DFS tools that LineStar provides you on both web and mobile platforms, what else can you expect content-wise? Here’s what we have in store:

🔊 LineStar PreSnap Podcast with Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) & Scott Bogman (@BogmanSports)

> Three shows every week, released on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. Tuesday's show will be aimed toward reviewing the previous week. Thursday will focus on a DFS rundown of the games ahead. And Friday's Weekly Wagering Show will focus on interpreting and breaking down Vegas moneylines, point totals and more in order to help bolster your bankroll on your preferred betting platforms.

Subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast wherever you listen to Pods!

✅ iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

📰 "LineStar NFL Primetime Preview" & "LineStar Weekly Pylon" by me, Ryan Humphries (@Ryan_Humphries)

> Primetime Preview: Covering some single game DFS strategies and plays for the week's primetime NFL games. Emailed and posted on the LineStar site and app every Wednesday for subscribers.

 > Weekly Pylon: A comprehensive NFL DFS breakdown of the main slate for the week ahead featuring important narratives, potential high-scoring games to target, and recommended plays for every position at different price points. Released every Thursday.

📰 “NFL Takeaways” with Greg Landry (@GP_Landry)

> Released every Tuesday

> Looking back on the previous week’s slate with a focus on emerging trends and whether they’re worth any merit. Also, a brief review of the previous week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker.

As you can see, there should be no shortage of NFL goodness to keep you occupied throughout each week!

NFL Bankroll Management & Contest Selection Strategy

Many of you reading this are well-seasoned NFL DFS veterans and I am not here to press my own personal strategies onto anyone. Our subscribers are made up of DFS players with different degrees of experience, varying bankroll balances, their own approaches, and take on their own personal levels of risk each week. If you have a plan in place that works for you and you’re satisfied with it then, by all means, disregard this section! I got my start on NFL DFS back in 2011 so this will be my ninth year playing. By now I feel confident in my own methodology and I’m just going to briefly outline what I have found to work for me over the years. Perhaps it may help folks who are newer to the sport or to DFS in general.

Football is the most popular sport in America so it should be no surprise that DraftKings, FanDuel, and other sites respond accordingly by posting large field GPPs (guaranteed prize pools) that feature massive five, six, and seven figure payouts. The thing is, while it is definitely an adrenaline rush chasing those huge prizes, 99.9% of DFS players don’t have the bankroll to routinely throw $3,000 on a $20 entry GPP with a 150-max entry limit -- which is often times what it takes to win one of those contests. Not every time of course -- plenty of guys have won the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and other large field GPPs off of a few entries or even a lone “single bullet” entry. However, you have to be aware of just how stacked the odds are against you if you’re not able to max-enter those contests.

If you think about it in terms of throwing darts at a dartboard, someone who is very experienced and can afford to max-enter a contest with 150 lineups has the surface area of the double-bullseye completely covered. Meanwhile, your single (or maybe handful) of lineups covers the area roughly the size of a pinhead at a random spot on the board. Even if you happen to be on the same skill-level as the guy with 150 lineups, he'll have a much higher chance of hitting that double-bullseye than you will hitting hitting your minuscule section of the board. Simply put, DFS is tough but the odds aren't nearly stacked as high against the players with deep pockets.

What am I getting at here? Cash games. They’re not everyone’s cup of tea but if you want to routinely turn a profit, then cash games (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, triple-ups, three-mans) are the way to go. NFL DFS is one of the best sports in which you can deploy a cash game approach. There is still plenty of volatility in football but it is nowhere near the level sports like MLB or NHL. For me personally, I will try to stick to spending around 10% to 15% of my bankroll across my weekly NFL spend. Of that, roughly 75% of my entry fees will go toward cash games, the other ~25% will go towards GPPs (some single entry or three entry max), winner-take-alls, multipliers, satellites, 10-mans, etc.

You don’t want to be one of those guys who constantly has to make deposits every couple of weeks as a result of poor bankroll management and contest selection. From what I’ve seen, it’s the number one reason guys give up on DFS -- they continuously blow too much of their bankroll on sub-optimal contests and/or they simply risk too much money. No one profits every single week, even the professionals (aka 'sharks'). I consider DFS to be a sort of “skilled gambling” where well-informed research and intelligent game theory practices can make you a winner but, at the end of the day, injuries and unpredictable performances happen. So no matter what sort of hot streak you’re riding, a down week is inevitable for everyone.

It really is exhilarating chasing a big score in those massive tournaments but, trust me, this is the way to take DFS from just a hobby of yours into actually making money to pay some bills, fund a vacation, update your wardrobe, or what have you. You can still throw down in GPPs but, barring some crazy luck, more often than not you will not be turning a consistent profit if you’re *only* playing those sorts of tournaments. Use cash games to stay both profitable and to supplement your GPP spending.

If I'm spending $100 on a DraftKings NFL main slate, this is a very general idea of what my contest selection would look like week-to-week:

• $50 Single Entry Double-Up

• $10 Single Entry Double-Up

• $10 Triple-Up

• $5 Three-Man League

• $1 (x3) Winner-Take-All (Three Entry Max, $100 to 1st)

• $3 (x3) Three Entry Max GPP

• $0.25 (x20) Quarter Arcade (max entered w/ 20 lineups)

• $8 - Miscellaneous GPPs/Satellites/Multipliers (this is where you can go after those top-heavy large-field GPPs with huge payouts, if you'd like)

> Even if all my GPP entries fail, as long as I hit in my cash games that's still around $163 and roughly 60-65% total ROI on my initial $100 investment. And odds are you'll still hit on at least some of those GPPs and other contests, though for a bit more ROI.

Again, no one profits every week but this is a pretty good way to stay consistently profitable over the course of the season.

Also, here’s a contest selection stat that I’ve found to be useful in recent seasons, specifically for cash games: If a particular week’s Thursday Night Football game carries a low total (say around 40 points), throw out a lineup in the “Thursday through Sunday/Monday” slates and fade the TNF game entirely -- with the occasional exception of D/STs. TNF games are often low-scoring anyway (short week, fatigue/injury factors, less time for coaches to create an optimal game plan, etc) but many DFS players will force players from that game into their lineups regardless. If it turns out to be a 17-9 snoozefest, as TNF games so often do, then anyone who rostered offensive players from that game are at a major disadvantage. Meanwhile, you can simply play your preferred, and likely more optimal, Sunday/Monday players and late swap guys around if need be. I’ve also noticed that some people in those contests forget to keep up with their lineups and will leave in players that get injured or scratched later in the week. This may not result in a huge edge every time but often eliminating even around 5-10% of the field makes this approach lucrative and worth exploring. Note: To state the obvious, this Thursday's season kick-off game between Houston and Kansas City (54.5 O/U) isn't exactly one of those games to try this strategy in.

NFL DFS Strategies

Here I’m going to discuss some general strategies and statistics to focus on for specific positions. This can help you throughout the season with your lineup construction. Once the season gets going you will see that much of the info below will be implemented within my approach towards recommended plays and game stacks in the NFL newsletters.

Game Stacks:

Stacking lineups full of players from specific games can be a profitable, yet at times risky, approach. As a result, heavy game stacking is typically recommended primarily for GPP builds. So what would I be looking for when pinpointing games to stack?

1) High Vegas Totals (Bonus if the spread is close)

> This is pretty straightforward. NFL game totals usually max out around 55 points, and that’s typically going to be relatively uncommon. Any game that has an implied total near or above 50 points clearly indicates that the bookies are anticipating plenty of scoring.

> In these high-total games, if the point spread is around three points or less, we can assume that the bookies are predicting said game to have a high likelihood of staying close -- thus keeping offenses in “attack mode” which can often produce shootouts. Obviously, shootouts result in high fantasy scores and optimal plays.

2) Match-Ups Featuring Good Offenses + Poor Defenses

> This typically goes hand-in-hand with high point totals. I’m more or less stating the obvious once again but when two teams facing each other both have good-to-great offenses, but bad or depleted/injured defenses, it's a good recipe for a shootout. It may take us getting three or four weeks into the season before we really have a solid idea on which defenses have improved and who has gotten worse or stayed the same from last year, so I wouldn’t rely on this too heavily in the early goings.

3) Offensive Snap Rates

> This is an angle that can sometimes get lost in certain Vegas totals and you’ll see me mention offensive snap rates at times in the newsletters. The average seconds it took for each offense to run a play across the NFL last season was 27.63 seconds (per Football Outsiders). The Panthers (25.05 sec/play) were the fastest paced offense while the Ravens (30.63 sec/play) were the slowest. This may not seem like a major difference but it can certainly add up over the course of a 60 minute game. Even a handful of additional plays (above average) can make a huge difference in providing extra opportunities for players in your lineups. You also have to account for the opposing team of a fast-paced offense gaining (or losing) some extra opportunities as well. Somewhat similar to the NBA, slower-paced offenses get a boost up when playing fast-paced teams due to receiving extra time of possession and vice versa. So, last season, since the Ravens ran so much and chewed a ton of time off the clock, playing offensive players on the opposing team could often be fairly risky. But playing guys against the Panthers was very likely to result in extra plays/possessions and thus, more fantasy point opportunities.

4) Targeting Domed Match-Ups

> I talked about this in an an edition of the Weekly Pylon a couple years ago, so I will just copy and paste what I had written down back then: Pinnacle.com did a study on scoring in the NFL between 2003 to 2015. They found that the average point totals in games taking place outdoors to be 42.4 PPG versus 46.2 PPG for games taking place inside of domes (or retractable roofed stadiums). That is right about a 9% increase in point production. In DFS, that sort of scoring advantage can make a huge impact and should be taken into consideration during roster construction. 

Quarterbacks:

Quarterback is often the easiest position to fill out in lineups, as they're the position which possesses the highest floor. Don't always feel pressured to pay all the way up for guys like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Many weeks, the difference between the highest scoring fantasy QB and the sixth or seventh-highest is just a few points. If you think the extra salary you'd gain from paying down from Patrick Mahomes to Carson Wentz (in a good match-up) can be used to vastly improve your lineup elsewhere, then don't be afraid to pull the trigger! Here are some things to consider when selecting quarterbacks in DFS:

1) Opposing Pass Defense

> Even mediocre or bad starting quarterbacks can fall into play if they get a shot at a bottom 10-ish pass defense. Targeting poor pass defenses who allow a high YPA (yards per attempt) is one of the easier ways to find quarterback values.

2) QBs Who Can Add Value Running the Ball

> In fantasy scoring, 25 yards passing equates to the same as 10 yards rushing. Passing TDs are also worth only four fantasy points, rushing TDs are worth six. Quarterbacks who can get even 20-30 yards on the ground with a shot at a rushing touchdown not only boost their floor, but massively boost their potential ceiling.

3) Attempts Per Game + Completion Percentage

> Another couple straightforward stats to target. Aside from rushing QBs, the best fantasy quarterbacks are going to throw a lot and complete a high percentage of those passes. Look for guys who meet both those criteria and also face a bad defense for easily identifiable QB plays. About 35 attempts/game and a 67% completion rate is a solid baseline to look for. LineStar also shows you which QBs are getting into a groove by displaying those stats (and more) from their previous four games.

4) QB + Pass Catcher Stacking

> In all formats it’s usually a good idea to draft at least one of your quarterback’s pass catchers. This is more often than not going to be a wide receiver but plenty of exceptions can be made for tight ends and pass catching running backs as well. The premise here is simple -- if you anticipate your quarterback is going to have a productive day, then his pass catchers will be putting up big numbers in the box score as well, right? Some exceptions can be made here, particularly with QBs who have rushing ability (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, etc). But if I draft a prototypical pocket passer at QB, in cash games I’m generally going to stack one, occasionally two, of his pass catchers along with him. In GPPs, I recommend stacking at least two, but rarely more than three pass catchers. The reason being you don’t want to put too many eggs in one basket -- also, how often do more than three pass catchers on the same team produce 15 to 20+ fantasy points? Not very often.

4) Factoring in Weather

> I’ve seen studies showing that rain doesn’t have a major impact on QB fantasy scoring but I’d be lying if I said I ever felt really 100% confident about deploying a passer who will be playing in really wet or snowy conditions. Hearkening back to the bit mentioned above about domed stadiums, ideally my QBs would be playing indoors for higher potential scores. However, that isn’t always the optimal route to go. Wind is really the key factor when it comes to decision making at quarterback pertaining to weather concerns. I will almost never play a QB if sustained winds are projected at 20+ mph (which will usually be accompanied by even stronger wind gusts), even in GPPs. No matter what anyone says, that’s going to have an affect on ball flight and often force a ton of short to intermediate passes, thus killing a downfield passing attack. Some quarterbacks can turn that sort of ‘dink and dunk’ game plan into a big fantasy day but it’s rarely a safe bet.

Running Backs:

The running back position is often times going to require you to spend a hefty amount of your allotted budget unless injuries open up opportunities for lower-priced backups. Workhorse RBs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. More often than not, in cash games, I focus on deploying three RBs by using my FLEX position on a running back as well. Simply put, they’re guaranteed the most touches and have the most favorable odds of reaching the endzone. Here are some factors that should help with your decision making at the position:

1) Volume (Rushes & Pass Targets)

> Volume, volume, volume. It’s no secret that for any given week you’ll be giving yourself the best chance of garnering fantasy production if you draft workhorse running backs expected to see upwards of 20+ touches. Pretty simple here -- more opportunities create more chances at chunk yardage and touchdown potential. On full PPR sites like DraftKings, an edge should be given to RBs who routinely see 5+ targets per game. While targets and receptions are still important on half PPR sites like FanDuel, it’s not quite as high of a priority.

2) Run Defense

> Again, keeping it simple here. A stud RB facing a poor run defense will rarely disappoint (barring injury). Some offenses are worse at covering pass catching running backs as well, so an edge can also be given to sure-handed receiving backs in those match-ups.

3) Offensive Snap Percentage

> More time on the field will obviously lead to more opportunity. The best way to use this during the season is by picking up on offensive snap trends as a running back emerges into becoming more of a focal point in an offense. If you notice an RB in on 60+% of their team’s offensive snaps in the previous week or two, you’re able to identify a potential trend developing. Perhaps they may have not done so hot in those previous games but maybe it was due to tough match-ups or a poor game script. If all of a sudden that RB who has seen a ton of snaps is in line for a cushy match-up against a poor run defense, be ahead of the curve and trust their potential opportunity over recent performance.

4) Target RBs on Heavily Favored Teams

> This doesn’t exactly apply so much to RBs who are strictly more of third down backs and pass-catching specialists (think James White, Tarik Cohen, etc). But more so the early down/three-down workhorses. If a team is favored by a touchdown or more then this typically leads to a positive game script for early down running backs. In an ideal game script, just about every NFL coach doesn't want to be forced to air it out all game. They’d rather get an early lead and use their running game to churn out yards, extend drives, wear down the defense, run out the clock, and get out of the week with a healthy QB and a win. Keep this in mind especially when teams head into a week as a double-digit favorite. This will routinely result in a bump up in a traditional RB’s workload (on most teams).

5) Pair Stud RBs with Their Team’s D/ST

> This is more of a game theory tip. If a running back is getting a ton of usage on the ground then the odds are that their team is controlling the clock. Meanwhile, that RB's defense is getting plenty of rest and, as a result, they're better able to limit the opposition to low production. This isn’t something you have to do all the time since the game script doesn't always work out that way. But I’ve found plenty of positive correlation with pairing one of my RBs with their D/ST in the past. It’s somewhat of a spin on “QB + pass catcher” stacking but isn’t nearly as popular or talked about.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

WRs and TEs are easily the most volatile positions in NFL DFS -- WRs especially. It’s often times perfectly fine to roll out a stud receiver or two as long as you’re not sacrificing too much at other positions. But this is also where you can pay down into the mid-range and find plenty of suitable guys with solid floors and strong ceilings or get risky and take some boom/bust fliers at the rock bottom salaries. Here are some factors that help me decide on my wide receivers in any given week:

1) Targets Per Game

> Getting the simplest thing out of the way. Just like the running back position, the more volume a receiver gets, the more fantasy scoring upside he’ll have. If I’m paying top dollar for a receiver, I want somewhere in the range of nine or ten targets/game, at minimum. Otherwise you’ll be relying too heavily on a big play or a touchdown -- which isn’t the easiest thing to predict.

2) Target Share & Catch Rate

> The best receivers in the league are going to command at least 25% of their team's targets. The top five WRs in target share last year were as follows: Michael Thomas (32%), DeAndre Hopkins (30%), Davante Adams (29%), George Kittle (28%), and Allen Robinson (27%). All stud fantasy receivers, right? Of course. But you can also find guys who stand out at cheaper price points. For example, Jamison Crowder ranked 20th in the NFL with a 23% target share -- the same as Mike Evans, Robert Woods, DJ Moore, and TY Hilton. Crowder maybe didn’t have near the season as those other guys, but picking up on a team’s clear desire to get one specific player the ball is worth recognizing as the season progresses. You also want all of that attention to turn into points, so catch rate (or catch percentage) is a good statistic to look at as well. Michael Thomas led the league with an 81% catch rate in 2019 but he was a major outlier. Typically, any sort of catch rate around 70% is really strong. Quarterbacks love guys who catch their passes. Not much of a shocker there.

3) aDOT (Average Depth of Target)

> aDOT is a stat you’ll see me mention often, especially when it comes to punt plays and boom/bust wide receivers who are more ideal for GPP lineups. A high aDOT indicates a quarterback is looking for that receiver as a deep threat. Deep threats aren’t consistent or reliable but they do produce big plays. Players with a strong aDOT (12+ yards) with a reasonably high target share (20+%) are often some of the better GPP plays week-to-week.

4) RedZone Targets

> Touchdowns aren’t easily prognosticated for receivers but if there’s one way to most safely predict them, it’s through RedZone targets. Offenses scheme with great intent on delivering the ball to certain guys when they’re knocking on the door of the enemy’s endzone. Last year's top three in RedZone targets were Tyler Lockett (23 RZ targets, 17 completions, 7 RedZone TDs), Michael Thomas (22/16/8), and Julian Edelman (20/14/4). Among TEs, your leaders included Tyler Higbee (19/14/3), Travis Kelce (19/7/2), and Austin Hooper (18/10/6). I’m willing to bet that you played those guys in plenty of your DFS lineups last year, for good reason. Obviously the studs are going to excel here at the top but RedZone targets are a good way to find cheap tight end and receiver plays who have solid TD upside.

5) Cornerback Match-Ups -- Emphasis: Shadow Coverage Cornerbacks

> Sometimes when it comes to selecting your receivers, grouping an entire defense’s pass coverage together by looking at one or two statistics won’t paint the full picture. Typically around a dozen NFL defenses will utilize their top shutdown cornerback in shadow coverage on the opposing team’s top receiver, such as the Patriots with Stephon Gilmore or the Bills with Tre’Davious White, among others. Usually offensive coaches are going to be aware of this and will game plan accordingly to get their top WR into the slot or deploy gimmick plays and formations to get them the ball. Still, depending on the shadow corner, this can absolutely impact a receiver’s expected performance. Keep this in mind throughout the season and track how teams are using their top DBs versus opposing WR1s. In some cases, secondary receivers end up seeing increased targets as a result of shadow coverage on their team’s top wideout.

Defenses and Special Teams

D/ST is the ‘position’ that requires the least amount of research in any given week. They can certainly be volatile and produce huge scores (or fat goose eggs) but that can also make it a good position to pay down for. Saving even just a few hundred bucks on a D/ST could be the difference between your ability to upgrade Stefon Diggs to Julio Jones. Here are a few things to consider when selecting D/STs:

1) Target Poor Opposing Offenses with Low Implied Point Totals

> This is as unambiguous as it gets. If a defense is facing a terrible offense that isn’t expected to score a lot of points, consider them a solid play.

2) Attack Pass-Happy Offenses

> This brings a little bit of risk into the mix but if a defense is facing a quarterback who drops back 35+ times a game, that just gives them more opportunities to produce sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns. A heavily pass-oriented offense also threatens to score more points but they can also often be responsible for huge opposing D/ST scores.

3) “Double Dip” your D/ST with skill position players on the same team

> I hit on this above (final bullet point in the RB section) but to add onto “D/ST stacking,” there are a few teams out there that will routinely use productive offensive weapons as their kick returner/punt returner. It’s a very rare occasion that a KR/PR takes one to the house and an even rarer scenario where they score a special teams touchdown AND have a really productive day on offense but when the “double dip” hits, boy is it nice. This is definitely more of a risk/reward GPP strategy to be used seldomly.

Highlighting LineStar Tools

There are a load of tools, data, and info that LineStar provides. The website and apps are constantly improving for the better. Be sure to take full advantage of all the gadgets and gizmos in order to strengthen your DFS arsenal!

Plenty of Advanced Sorters to help you pinpoint optimal plays:

Use the customizable "Stack Finder" to help maximize potential upside:

The "Daily Dashboard" gives you an all-in-one look at the week's starting lineups along with Vegas info, "Hot/Cold" players, salary changes, and players that have a knack for appearing in perfect lineups!

Snag some insight into better potential plays on the "Matchups" page. See how specific players and positions have fared in the same matchups from previous weeks! All slates included.

Live up-to-the minute scoring for any slate!

In-depth snap data! Find out who is seeing the field the most and who may be making the most of their given opportunities!

Breaking news across the NFL as it happens with live tweets from beat reporters from across the league!

There are numerous other features and tools at your disposal included in your LineStar subscription. The best advice is to simply explore everything for yourself and start building on your personalized strategy today!

That will wrap us up for the 2020 LineStar NFL Preview & Strategy Guide! Here’s to a ton of green screens, steady cash flow, and GPP take downs for all the LineStar members out there! Stay tuned for all of the podcasts and content yet to come. Best of luck this season!

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