LineStar's Primetime Preview 📺 | Chiefs vs. Bucs - Super Bowl LV Edition! 🏆

February 06, 2021

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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The kickoff to Super Bowl LV is nearly here and there are some monstrous contests to take a shot at across the DFS industry. Between the Chiefs and Bucs, there is no shortage of offensive weapons to choose from so, as far as single game DFS contests go, there are quite a number of ways to attack the big game. For those who rarely play these sort of single game NFL DFS contests but want to throw some scratch into the mix just in case you hit the primo lineup, be sure to check out the “Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide” linked below.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, February 7th @ 6:30 pm ET

Total: 56 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs | Moneyline: -160, Spread:-3.0 Points, Implied Team Total: 29.75 Points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Moneyline: +140, Spread: +3.0 Points, Implied Team Total: 26.75 Points

Weather: After some forecasts called for some potential rain earlier in the week, it’s looking like the Super Bowl should play dry. Temps will reside in the mid-upper 60s with fairly light winds under 10 mph. Weather should not have an impact on the game.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (calf) - Questionable, WR Antonio Brown (knee) - Questionable (should play)

Best Bets (Core Captain Plays):

QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, QB Tom Brady, WR Tyreek Hill

The fantasy upside for all four of these guys is pretty obvious. If you can afford them as your captain, they offer you the highest floor and ceiling combination. The order they are listed is how I’d rank them in terms of favorite to least favorite captain. Though, there is nothing wrong with opting for a cheaper captain, especially if it helps you get two or three (maybe even all four?) of these guys into your lineup as FLEX plays.

FLEX Options & Secondary Captain Plays

WR Chris Godwin | $8,800 | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Godwin has led the Bucs in targets in the postseason with 28 looks, resulting in 14 receptions, 223 yards, and a touchdown. Not the most efficient target-to-catch conversion rate but having Tom Brady’s trust in the playoffs is a valuable quality to possess. The Chiefs allowed the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs over the last half of the season. Godwin aligns in the slot on about 70% of his routes and caught eight of his nine targets against them earlier in the season for 97 yards.

WR Mike Evans | $8,400 | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Evans is going to be a tad more of a boom-or-bust option but that upside makes him a quality secondary captain selection for DFS tournaments. In the 2020-21 postseason, Evans has garnered 10, 3, and 8 targets through the Bucs’ three games. The three target game came against New Orleans when he was largely covered by Marshon Lattimore who has sort of been Evans’ kryptonite throughout his career. While the Chiefs secondary is fairly tough on the boundaries, where Evans runs two-thirds of his routes, his targets should land in that 8-10 range especially if Tampa Bay is playing from behind. I’m willing to bet that Evans will see at least two shots in the end zone and he did bring in a pair of TDs against KC back in week 12.

RB Leonard Fournette | $7,800 | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Even with Ronald Jones II healthy, Leonard Fournette has played just under 70% of the snaps in each of the last two playoff games (85% of snaps in the wild card round when Jones was inactive). He has found his way into the endzone each week this postseason while also being quite active in the passing game. The Bucs have made it this far so you have to assume that they’ll lean on the mantra of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Chiefs run defense has been fairly suspect all season and allowed the 8th most FPPG to opposing RBs. They also allowed 93 receptions to RBs (3rd most) and 846 receiving yards (THE most).

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $7,000 | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Darrell Williams ($5,200) has filled in nicely for Kansas City while CEH nursed some injuries over the last month or so. As a result, we have to assume Edwards-Helaire will cede some work to Williams. But now that CEH is a couple more weeks removed from his injuries, all indications point towards him stepping back into the lead role and receiving the majority of the Chiefs RB touches on Super Bowl Sunday. However, due to some injuries upfront on the Chiefs O-Line, the stoutness of the Bucs run defense, and the fact that Patrick Mahomes passing the ball is simply a more logical option on most plays, he’ll be a bit touchdown dependent especially since he is going to be losing some of those touches to WIlliams.

Fillers, Fliers, & Against The Grain Captain Plays

TE Cameron Brate | $4,800 | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Brate has simply outplayed Rob Gronkowski down the stretch and at a certain point you just have to start trusting the results over expectations. Would I completely rule Gronk out of my player pool? Nope. But I’d maybe look to go overweight in comparison to the field with Brate, and underweight on Gronk. For example: If Brate is projected to be 20% owned, I’d be willing to put him in 30-35% of lineups. If Gronk has an ownership projection of 28%, I’d look to go around 15% exposure in my lineups. The Chiefs gave up the 7th most FPPG to TEs during the regular season.

Buccaneers DST & Chiefs DST | $2,800/$2,600 | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

While the offenses are expected to be the focal point of Super Bowl LV, there is always a chance things simply won’t play out the way they’re supposed to and one of these defenses could end up being an optimal play.

The Chiefs defensive upside lies in the fact that Tom Brady threw three second-half interceptions on consecutive drives in the NFC Championship Game -- they also picked him off twice in week 12. You can guarantee that they’re going to be highly aggressive defensively, otherwise, Brady is just going to pick them apart.

The Bucs defensive upside leans on the depleted Chiefs offensive line which will be without three of its initial starters for the season: LG Kelechi Osemele, RT Mitchell Schwartz, and LT Eric Fisher. Tampa Bay possesses one of the better defensive fronts in the league, especially with the insanely disruptive Vita Vea back healthy and anchoring the interior.

RB Ronald Jones II | $2,200 | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

I know I mentioned how Fournette has a pretty firm grasp on this Bucs backfield, but Jones is simply too cheap for a guy who should see around a dozen touches. On top of the always lingering threat of a potential in-game injury to Fournette, it is entirely feasible that Jones goes out there and simply looks like the better back (as he has at times this season). As a reminder: Jones needed just ten touches to rack up 103 all purpose yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in week 12. He’s one of the more enticing punt plays on DraftKings.

WR Byron Pringle | $1,800 | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

I’d love the Pringle play infinitely more if Sammy Watkins is unable to suit up. In the AFC Championship Game, Pringle tied Tyreek Hill for the team lead among WRs with 52 snaps played (80% snap rate) and worked ahead of Demarcus Robinson who failed to draw a target on 42 snaps. Pringle absolutely has potential to give you a fat goose egg, but at this salary two or three catches with the outside chance at a touchdown makes him a viable GPP flier.

That will wrap us up for the Super Bowl LV Primetime Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck on Sunday and I'll see you guys next season (or in NBA/PGA/MLB chat)!!!

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