A potential Thursday night shootout is on hand tonight as we crack into week two of the NFL season!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) | 54 O/U

LAC: 25.0 implied points | KC: 29.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Keenan Allen (OUT), K Harrison Butker (OUT), TE Donald Parham Jr. (OUT)

Score Prediction: LAC - 23, KC - 30

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chiefs, 4-2 Chargers, 5-1 Chiefs (small GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Patrick Mahomes: You have to keep both QBs in mind as captain plays in this game, but the absence of WR Keenan Allen does cause me to lean toward Mahomes if I’m forced to pick one over the other. Both offenses played at a top 10 pace in week one, with the Chargers picking up where they left off in 2021 as the most uptempo offense, so there will be plenty of plays to go around in this match-up. With five TDs and 360 yards on 30/39 passing, Mahomes proved in week one that he’s not exactly missing Tyreek Hill all too much. He still has some solid weapons around him to get the job done, and this game could easily turn into a shootout. Even if it doesn’t, the Chiefs showed no hesitation in running up the score a bit in week one.

TE Travis Kelce: The stud tight end continues to thrive into his age 32 season. He hauled in 8-of-9 targets in week one for 121 yards and a TD -- typical Kelce stat line. He led KC with a 23.1% TGT% and also accounted for a team-high 31% AirYard%. The Chargers gave up the most FPPG to opposing TEs in 2021 and, while it wasn’t a massive day, they gave up 79 yards on just four catches to Raiders TE Darren Waller in week one. Kelce should continue to roll in this match-up.

RB Austin Ekeler: When we’re thinking of a player on this Chargers offense that may benefit the most from the absence of Keenan Allen (hamstring), it may very well be the dynamic Austin Ekeler. Allen did miss one game in 2021 -- week 14 versus the Giants. Ekeler didn’t have a huge game that week (12 car, 67 yards & 2 rec, 17 yards, and a TD), but it was also a game that LAC won handily 37-21. In a game tonight where the Chargers may fall behind early, Ekeler is a candidate to see a ton of screens and other short passes -- he saw as many as 12 targets in a single game last year, and the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most receptions to RBs last season as well. He didn’t have a massive week one, combining for 72 total yards on 18 touches (14 car, 4 rec). However, Ekeler stated on his podcast that his touches were “a little light” due to not playing in the preseason.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Joshua Palmer: Now, if we’re talking volume and opportunity benefactors from Keenan Allen’s absence, Joshua Palmer is another easy guy to mention. He led Chargers WRs with an 87% snap% when Allen missed week 14 in 2021. Palmer also led the team with seven targets that week, which resulted in 5 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. If the Chiefs defense looks to prioritize Mike Williams in coverage, Palmer could be in for another solid day as the de facto Chargers WR2.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: JuJu’s 66% snap% in week one is slightly concerning, but when he was on the field, Patrick Mahomes looked his way often, and Smith-Schuster finished with 8 targets, 6 receptions, and 79 yards. JuJu wasn’t brought in to take on the Tyreek Hill role, but he is going to see plenty of those targets that would have normally gone in Hill’s direction -- just more so in the intermediate passing game. JuJu also didn’t operate solely as a slot receiver, and he actually spent 60% of his snaps on the outside, which is encouraging for his overall upside, even though Travis Kelce remains the top dog in the passing game.

TE Gerald Everett: Everett took his four targets in week one and made the most of them, ending the game with 3 catches, 54 yards, and a TD. Everett’s two redzone targets represented a 33.3% RZ TGT% as well. Not to beat a dead horse here, but he is another player who could see an uptick in targets due to the trickle-down effect of no Keenan Allen being on the field. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: If there is any receiver on this Chiefs team who could somewhat replicate what Tyreek Hill’s role was, it would be MVS. He wasn't with the Chiefs last season, but he did rank second in the entire NFL with his 17.9-yard aDOT. MVS also led all Chiefs receivers (including Travis Kelce) with a 73% snap% in week one. He only saw four targets with a 5.5-yard aDOT, but he did catch all four targets for 44 yards. I think he’ll see a deep ball or two in this game tonight.

TE Tre’ McKitty: Complete punt here, but McKitty is only going to eat up $400 of the budget on DraftKings and he was moderately involved last week. While backup tight end Donald Parham Jr. remains sidelined with an injury, McKitty played 60% of offensive snaps in week one and caught 3-of-4 targets for 24 yards. I have no data to back this up, but it seems like a backup tight end catches a touchdown in, like, half of all primetime games. Maybe McKitty is that showdown slate breaker tonight.

RB Jerick McKinnon: He played a key role towards the end of last season and would appear that McKinnon is going to stay a part of the Chiefs' game plan. Clyde Edwards-Helaire started and ended up having the better fantasy day in week one, but he and McKinnon played the same amount of snaps (39% snap%). McKinnon saw just three fewer rushes and had one additional target than CEH -- CEH just happened to find the endzone twice. McKinnon likely isn’t going to see goal-line carries or anything, but he provides value as a pass catcher and should still see his fair share of snaps.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Standard CPTN Mahomes double stack.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Joshua Palmer: Kelce provides 30+ DKFP upside, so he’s clearly a CPTN candidate. It’ll be hard not to stack him with Mahomes in the flex so run it back with a cheaper Chargers receiver in Joshua Palmer.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Justin Herbert, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: With Ekeler’s pass-catching ability, he should be viewed as a ‘stackable’ receiver with Herbert. And it wouldn’t be a shocker if Ekeler came out of this game with double-digit targets against a Chiefs defense that gave up the fourth-most receptions to RBs in 2021.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett (Fade Mahomes & Kelce): Let’s call this the “Chargers runaway upset stack.” I mean, they’re only four-point road underdogs and they do have a strong defense that could be capable of limiting Mahomes (and Kelce). Going Charger-heavy and fading Mahomes & Kelce (both will be 65% - 90% owned in GPPs) would be one way to be different on this showdown slate.

*WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Austin Ekeler (Fade Kelce): In this stack, we’re taking the stance of JuJu finishing the day as the top Chiefs receiver. Kelce could still have a solid day, something like 6 catches for 65 yards for example, but that probably wouldn’t be enough to land him in the optimal lineup given his high salary. Roll with CPTN JuJu and see if he and Mahomes build an even stronger connection in week two.

That will wrap us up with the TNF edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!