An ugly MNF primetime match-up is on the horizon this evening but someone has to take home the big cash prizes tonight so let's dig into this game and try to find the right recipe to success!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8.5) | 40 O/U

CHI: 15.8 Implied Points | NE: 19.7 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Mac Jones (questionable, expected to start), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable), WR Kendrick Bourne (questionable, NOT expected to play)

Score Prediction: CHI - 14, NE - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Patriots, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bears, 5-1 Patriots (light GPP sprinkle)

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Bears Defense / Patriots Offense

Patriots Offense / Bears Defense 

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Justin Fields: We’ve got an ugly primetime match-up on our hands and this Bears offense has been a disaster. With that said, Fields can be viewed as a (very) poor man’s Lamar Jackson. He’s putting up 47.0 YPG on the ground which helps provide a solid floor. And while Fields has been incredibly inefficient as a passer with an NFL-worst 54.8% comp%, when he does complete a pass, at least they usually go for good yardage. Fields surprisingly leads all NFL QBs with a 13.8 yards per completion average and he ranks 9th with a 7.6 YPA average. Yes, it doesn’t feel great rolling with Fields at captain against a good Patriots defense that ranks 7th in overall DVOA, but this is the hand we’re dealt tonight and Fields should be one of the better floor plays available.

WR Jakobi Meyers: Bailey Zappe has filled in admirably in Mac Jones’ (ankle) absence. It’s tough to say whether or not Meyers and the rest of the Patriots receivers are better off with Zappe at QB as opposed to Jones. But the last game Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers played together (week two @ PIT), Meyers was targeted a season-high 13 times and went on to put up a 9-95-0 receiving line. In the four games he has played this season, Meyers has commanded a team-leading 26.7% TGT% as well as a 36.5% ownership of the team’s total air yards, which is more than double that of the next-closest Patriots receiver (DaVante Parker: 16.4% AirYard% in weeks 1, 2, 5, 6). Meyer, the Patriots' primary slot man, is also poised to face plenty of coverage by Bears slot corner Kyler Gordon. Gordon has been the Bears’ “most attacked” CB with opposing QBs targeting WRs in his coverage on 30% of routes ran against him.

Patriots D/ST: I get the feeling that this is one of those game environments where rolling with a defense at captain may end up being the optimal play. The Patriots' D/ST would be the obvious unit to roll with here. Behind the Bears’ shoddy O-Line, Justin Fields has been sacked on an NFL-high 16.7% of dropbacks (next closest is Marcus Mariota with a 10.2% sack%). The Patriots also run an aggressive defensive game plan. They have accounted for a 29.3% Blitz Rate (4th highest), a 24.6% Pressure% (6th highest), and they’ve created a turnover on 15.4% of opposing offensive drives (6th highest). 

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: He wouldn’t be a bad captain play but his game-high DFS salary does make utilizing him at captain a bit restrictive. With fellow RB Damien Harris returning to action after missing most of the last two games with a hamstring injury, that is clearly going to hurt Stevenson’s ceiling. With that said, Stevenson is a solid candidate for 15+ touches tonight in what should be a positive RB game script. Stevenson is also the preferred pass catcher out of the backfield and he has seen five targets in three of the last four games. The Bears have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs this season and rank 27th in rush DVOA.

RB David Montgomery: Monty is a bit overpriced for my liking as well but his chances of handling 15+ touches must also keep him in the FLEX/contrarian captain consideration. The Bears being +8.5 underdogs also does not bode well for the Bears' running game. At the same time, if they fall behind early, it’s not as if Chicago is going to have Fields go out there and chuck it 40+ times. Fields has not attempted more than 27 passes in a single game this season and he only averages 19.2 pass attempts per game. The Patriots defense has also been a little vulnerable on the ground. RBs are averaging 5.0 YPC against them in their last four games. So the hope here is that Montgomery can muster up around 80 yards rushing, tack on a couple of receptions, and perhaps fall into the endzone at some point tonight.

WR Darnell Mooney: Outside of one or two lottery ticket plays, Mooney is about the only piece of this atrocious Bears passing attack that I could comfortably stomach in lineups tonight. It’s nothing to write home about, but Mooney has posted a pair of 13+ DKFP games within his last three games. He is far and away the target and air yards leader for the Bears with a lofty 29.7% TGT% and a massive 46% AirYard%. We know that Bill Belichick likes to focus on one opposing offensive weapon and render them ineffective. The chances are fairly high that Mooney could be the unlucky player that Belichick targets tonight. But, if not, Mooney could post a solid performance that could land him in the final optimal lineup.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Tyquan Thornton: With the Patriots dealing with some injuries at the WR position last week, the rookie Thornton impressed in an expanded role that led to him playing 57% of the snaps. He caught 4-of-5 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown while adding 16 yards on three carries and another touchdown on the ground. The Patriots might have Nelson Agholor (hamstring, questionable) back in the mix, but with Kendrick Bourne (toe) unlikely to play, I’d say Thornton showed enough on the field last week to earn himself another healthy dosage of snaps and usage tonight. If Agholor gets ruled out, Thornton can be bumped up to the FLEX/contrarian captain category.

K Nick Folk OR K Cairo Santos: You know the drill. A lower total game means more chances for field goals than touchdowns so both kickers own a strong median fantasy point projection in relation to their affordable showdown DFS salaries. Folk has averaged 10.5 FPPG over his last four games and Santos has posted kicking performances of 14.0 FP and 15.0 FP within his last three games (missed week 4 due to injury). Winds are also not expected to blow more than about 4 mph in Foxborough tonight.

WR Dante Pettis: To state the obvious once more, this Bears passing attack is incredibly hard to trust. Pettis should be nothing more than a fairly pricey dart throw. Pettis caught a 51-yard TD on his lone target in week one then did nothing for the next four games except for getting his cardio in for the week while running fruitless routes. It isn’t his fault that Justin Fields is his QB, but Pettis did connect with Fields on 4-of-7 targets for 84 yards and a TD against the Commanders last week. If Belichick chooses to focus defensive coverage on Darnell Mooney, then Pettis may see an expanded role.

TE Hunter Henry: Henry has played on 79.2% of snaps this season, however, he might as well have been a ghost to Mac Jones. Henry has brought in 8-of-12 targets for 105 yards and a TD in the last two games with Bailey Zappe in at QB. If Mac Jones actually decides to pass to his tight end, then Henry may check in a solid FLEX play in tonight’s game.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Justin Fields, WR Dante Pettis, RB Rhamondre Stevenson: I don’t think we NEED to run a double-stack with CPTN Fields but I wouldn’t 100% oppose it. I do think you throw either Pettis or Darnell Mooney in as single stack pieces and hope for the best. Run this one back with Stevenson (or Damien Harris) on the other side.

*WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Mac Jones, RB David Montgomery: There aren’t many skill position players who I’d feel confident about getting double-digit fantasy points in this sluggish primetime match-up, but Jakobi Meyers is one of them. He seems to be QB Mac Jones’ most trusted target and, if he lucks out with a TD reception, he just may end up as tonight’s optimal captain play.

*Patriots D/ST, RB Rhamondre Stevenson OR RB Damien Harris, K Nick Folk: Realistically, there may not be a single passing touchdown thrown tonight. Mac Jones has just two TD passes in his two healthy games this season and Fields has thrown just four TDs in six complete games. So, if we do one of those contrarian strategies where we slot in a D/ST at captain (Patriots D/ST being the far more preferred option), then let’s run it with some correlation by rostering one of the Pats RBs and throwing in K Nick Folk as well.

*WR Darnell Mooney, QB Justin Fields, RB Damien Harris: Similar concept as the CPTN Meyers stack above, obviously just flipping over to the Bears CPTN WR/FLEX QB stack and running it back with a Patriots RB.

*WR Tyquan Thornton, QB Mac Jones, QB Justin Fields: If Agholor is inactive, I’m much more on board with running out Thornton as a contrarian captain play. He showed off an impressive skillset last week and I don’t believe the QB change back to Mac Jones would affect him too much if the Patriots purposefully scheme to get him the ball. Since he is a cheaper CPTN play, rostering higher floor players like both QBs in the FLEX becomes much more doable. 

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Roquan Smith MORE than 9.5 Tackles + Assists

Jakobi Meyers MORE than 52.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!