We’ve got a banger of a match-up to close out week 17 in the NFL. The Bills travel to clash with the Bengals in a game that could be a key decider for the No. 1 seed in the AFC as well as a possible AFC Championship preview. Let’s lock in and try to nail down the best DFS approach tonight!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals | 49.5 O/U

BUF: 25.3 Implied Points | CIN: 24.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: BUF - 27, CIN - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 4-2 Bengals

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Bengals Defense / Bills Offense

Bills Defense / Bengals Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Josh Allen: This game features no shortage of star power and you could make a real case for at least half a dozen players to consider as top captain plays. To no one’s surprise, we’ll begin with Josh Allen. There are not many, if any, players who can do what Josh Allen does. He has elite arm talent and high-end rushing ability. His 746 rushing yards are just 44 yards behind team rushing leader Devin Singletary, and Allen has punched in seven rushing TDs. The Bengals boast a solid defense but Allen has proven that he is about as match-up proof as a QB can get at the NFL level and this game should feature plenty of back-and-forth scoring.

QB Joe Burrow: Allen’s counterpart deserves ample captain consideration as well. Burrow has thrown for 16 touchdowns in his last six games and, when they’re healthy (as they currently are), he has arguably the best wide receiver trio at his disposal between Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. The Bills own a talented defense themselves, one which ranks 4th in overall DVOA. But they’ll have their hands full trying to slow down Burrow and this Bengals offense that has won seven in a row and nine of their last 10 games.

WR Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has been awesome at home this season where he is averaging 11.2 TGT/gm, 111.2 YPG, and 25.6 FPPG. Opposing WR1s have given the Bills some trouble this season and they have surrendered the 7th most FPPG to WRs over the last eight weeks.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Stefon Diggs: The Bills’ stud WR has been in a bit of a slump lately but he does have some excuses to bail him out. He was quiet against the Jets in week 14 (5-3-37-0 receiving line) but most WRs have had bad games against a Jets defense that allows the fewest FPPG to WRs. And last week against the Bears, like many week 16 games, the conditions were brutally cold and windy. So we can look for Diggs to have a strong bounce-back performance -- perhaps at lower ownership if folks are scared by his recent receiving lines. Diggs owns a stellar 26.7% TGT% on the season to go along with an elite 31.0% redzone TGT%.

RB James Cook: The rookie RB out of Georgia has been getting more involved lately. Cook has logged at least a 40% snap% in three of the last four games and he is coming off of a season-high 99 yards rushing in week 16. The Bengals do only allow the 8th fewest FPPG to RBs but Cook should see some meaningful snaps and touches tonight. With the player pool being so top-heavy, we’ll have to find some value somewhere and Cook fits the bill at $5,600 on DraftKings.

TE Dawson Knox: Knox has at least five targets and a touchdown in three consecutive games heading into week 17. He is a reliable receiving option who has caught 73.0% of his targets this season and will face a Bengals defense that has not been all that great against tight ends lately (13th most FPPG allowed to TEs L4Gms).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Tyler Bass / K Evan McPherson: Two great offense square off against two solid defenses. That may lead to plenty of drives stalling out in field goal range and both teams have talented kickers who can connect from 50+ yards out. Winds won’t be an issue in Cincy tonight either.

TE Hayden Hurst: He has missed the last three games with a calf injury but Hurst is set to return tonight and does not carry an injury designation. He has caught 76.2% of his targets this season and stands out as a great bargain at just $3,000 on DraftKings showdown pricing.

WR Isaiah McKenzie: He hasn’t done much in recent weeks but McKenzie is still a good bet to play around 40-50% of snaps tonight, primarily out of the slot, and Cincy has been very mediocre against slot receivers. Any time you’re playing meaningful snaps and Josh Allen is your QB, you’ve got some upside… especially at a low $2,800 DK showdown salary.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Ja'Marr Chase

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Isaiah McKenzie: Standard CPTN Allen double stack.

*QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, TE Hayden Hurst: Standard CPTN Burrow double stack. Hurst steps in as a salary relief option but, if you’re willing to sacrifice the money at FLEX, you could of course sub in Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Joe Burrow, RB James Cook: The Chase + Burrow stack always has massive upside but it will burn a large chunk of salary. Running that stack back with James Cook leaves room for one more stud and a couple of value plays for the remaining three FLEX spots.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, TE Hayden Hurst: Similar concept as above, just flipping the teams and using Hurst as the value option. As discussed above, this could be a strong bounce-back spot for Diggs following three uncharacteristically bad performances.

*RB James Cook, QB Josh Allen, QB Joe Burrow: Rolling with a cheaper, less-reliable captain play like James Cook can often backfire but it will open up more salary to spend up on big-time FLEX plays. In this case, using Cook at captain makes rostering both QBs much easier while still leaving a decent chunk of salary to fill out the remaining three FLEX spots.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

James Cook MORE than 27.5 Rush Yards

Ja'Marr Chase MORE than 82.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!