Let's get set for tonight's Patriots @ Cardinals Monday night showdown with a look at some top DFS plays, stacks, strategies, and props to consider!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 43.5 O/U

NE: 22.5 Implied Points | ARI: 21.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Damien Harris - Doubtful, WR R. Moore - OUT, WR J. Meyers - OUT, TE Zach Ertz - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: NE - 23, ARI - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Patriots, 4-2 Cardinals

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Patriots Defense / Cardinals Offense

Cardinals Defense / Patriots Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Kyler Murray: There are two big things to worry about with Murray tonight. First, if you look at the SIC Score/Field View above, you’ll notice a bunch of red across the Cardinals' O-Line. There will be several backups protecting Murray tonight which is a concern with the second issue; the Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL with a 27.5% pressure%. Fortunately, Murray is a very mobile QB, and we could see him rack up some strong rushing yardage this evening. This is also his second game where he’ll have his top two WRs, D. Hopkins and M. Brown, available this season. It’s been a bit of a lackluster season for Murray, but he hasn’t scored below 16.36 DKFP yet this season so he’ll represent a useful high-floor/solid ceiling captain play, despite the difficult match-up (NE: 3rd in overall DVOA).

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Damien Harris (thigh/doubtful) is on track to miss another game, so it’ll be Stevenson that carries the load for the Pats backfield once again. He played a whopping 98% of snaps in week 13, a snap share you rarely see with RBs these days. We have to absolutely love Stevenson’s role because not only is he going to lock down nearly every Patriots’ RB rush attempt, but he has been targeted at least six times in six consecutive games. His role as a receiver plays directly in favor of the match-up. The Cardinals have allowed 7.8 receptions/gm to RBs over their last four.

WR Marquise Brown: Hollywood Brown returned from a five-game absence last week and ended up playing 97% of snaps and commanding eight targets. He has an excellent start to the season but, of course, he was operating as the clear-cut WR1 while DeAndre Hopkins served his six-game suspension. Brown is still going to be heavily targeted and, if anything, DHop does take some defensive focus off of him. Brown checks in with a much more affordable salary than Hopkins and, realistically, he has similar upside so I’m on board with him as a cheaper captain play. It’s also not as bad of a match-up as some may believe. The Patriots have surrendered the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (Brown: 72% perimeter%) and they’ve allowed 24% more FPPG to WRs when playing on the road.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR DeAndre Hopkins: DHop is the most expensive player on the slate and, with Marquise Brown back in the mix, he does have some of his upside shaved off. That will make him a preferred FLEX play, but there’s no doubt that he’s a great option to roll with. The same reasons we like Brown apply to Hopkins as well. The big concern is whether or not the Cardinals depleted O-Line can hold up long enough to give Kyler Murray a clean pocket to distribute targets accurately.

WR DeVante Parker: No Jakobi Meyers tonight so Parker assumes the WR1 role for the Pats. When Meyers also sat out in week three, Parker posted his best game of the season, catching 5-of-10 targets for 156 yards. Those targets, catches, and yards were all season-highs and he draws a decent match-up against a middling Cardinals secondary that will be without top CB Byron Murphy Jr. It’s tough to trust any receiving target in a limited Patriots passing attack but Parker does make sense as an upside FLEX play tonight.

TE Hunter Henry: This is largely a match-up-driven FLEX/contrarian captain option because, much like the rest of the Patriots receivers, Henry has posted an extremely low DFS floor this season. But the fact is, you just have to consider tight ends against the Cardinals. No other team in the NFL has allowed more receptions (83 total rec., 6.9 rec/gm), yards (880 total yds., 73.3 YPG), touchdowns (9), and FPPG to opposing TEs this season. The Cardinals have also allowed +43% more FPPG to TEs when playing at home.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Patriots D/ST: The Pats D might be able to tee off on this extremely banged-up Cardinals O-Line. As a unit, they’re averaging 3.2 sacks/gm, 1.5 turnovers/gm, and, as mentioned above, they rank 2nd in the NFL with a 27.5% pressure%.

K Nick Folk / K Matt Prater: Domed match-up (no wind/weather concerns) and a total in the mid-40s means both kickers are firmly in play as value FLEX options.

WR Greg Dortch: Rondale Moore is out so Dortch should fill in as the primary slot receiver tonight. He missed last week but went off for a 10-9-103-0 target/receiving line the week prior. He’ll, at best, be third in the pecking order for targets behind Hopkins and Brown but, at $2,200 on DK, Dortch doesn’t need much to hit value.

WR Tyquan Thornton: He’s the epitome of a single-game DFS lotto ticket but he might see some extra snaps with Jakobi Meyers out. The Pats don’t throw it downfield often but given Thornton’s insane 4.21 speed, he is the type of receiver who can catch a bomb and house it on any play.

RB Kevin Harris OR RB Pierre Strong Jr.: I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’d be surprised if Stevenson continues to play 98% of the snaps like he did last week. One of these other RBs has a chance to see some touches, especially if the Pats manage to get a big lead (not likely, but possible). And, hey, I’m not hoping for it to happen, but starting RBs do get dinged up more than just about any other position on the field. Consider both Harris and Strong to be min-priced lotto tickets on DraftKings. 

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Marquise Brown

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Marquise Brown: Standard CPTN Murray double-stack. Sub in Greg Dortch for either Hopkins or Brown if you want to save some salary.

*RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots D/ST, K Nick Folk: We’ll give some credit to this Cardinals pass defense -- they’re allowing just 0.8 passing TDs/gm and we know QB Mac Jones isn’t exactly a gunslinger. This stack potentially gives you exposure to every point the Pats score tonight.

*WR Marquise Brown, QB Kyler Murray, RB Rhamondre Stevenson: As mentioned in the player spotlight, Marquise Brown is set up as a favorable captain option if you’re not spending up on one of the top options. He represents a strong floor + ceiling play even with Hopkins receiving his fair share of targets. Stack him with Murray in the FLEX and run it back with Stevenson on the other side. Love this stack for cash games as well.

*WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Kyler Murray, TE Hunter Henry: Similar stack as above but this time we’re shelling out the big bucks for CPTN Hopkins and running it back with Henry, who draws the best match-up a tight end could ask for.

*WR DeVante Parker, QB Mac Jones, QB Kyler Murray: Parker’s floor is low but he has plenty of captain-worthy upside with Jakobi Meyers sidelined. He’s a cheap captain play so we can afford to slide in both QBs and still have plenty of salary remaining for the other three FLEX plays.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rhamondre Stevenson MORE than 5.0 Receptions

Greg Dortch MORE than 22.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!