After a couple of lower-scoring week five primetime match-ups, some offensive fireworks may rise in tonight's AFC West showdown with the Chiefs hosting the Raiders. We'll dig into some top DFS plays to target tonight as well as some various ways to get a little 'different' on this single-game slate!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) | 51.5 O/U

LV: 22.3 Implied Points | KC: 29.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Questionable, expected to play), K Harrison Butker (OUT), TE Foster Moreau (Questionable)

Score Prediction: LV - 24, KC - 35

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Raiders, 5-1 Chiefs (very light GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Patrick Mahomes: No surprise here. By Mahomes' standards, he’s having a rather mundane season as he has failed to pass for 250+ yards in his last three games. But, it’s Mahomes, and the dude always seems to thrive when he goes up against the divisional rival Raiders. In eight career games against the Raiders, Mahomes is averaging 318.3 YPG, 2.8 TD/gm, and 8.6 YPA. He has passed for multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8 games against the Raiders and, while I’m not sure it is a ‘repeatable’ trend, he has always crushed them in the first match-up of the season, every season (see his first game vs. LV fantasy totals below). The Raiders rank 22nd in pass DVOA and pressure the quarterback at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL (18.5% Prss%). You’re paying the premium for him ($18,000 CPTN salary on DK) but Mahomes provides the best floor and an extremely high ceiling in this Monday Night Football tilt.

WR Davante Adams: As expected, Adams has been QB Derek Carr’s favorite target on the season. He commands an elite 32.4% TGT%, 11.8 TGT/gm, and he is the go-to receiver in the redzone with an absurd 43.3% RZ TGT%. The Raiders move Adams all around in the formation (37% LWR, 35% Slot, 28% RWR), which bodes well against a Chiefs defense that gives up the 9th most FPPG to WRs. In a game where the Raiders figure to either be trailing or pressured to keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard for all four quarters, this could be one of those games where Adams sees 12-15 targets funneled in his direction.

TE Travis Kelce: The three highlighted captain/core flex plays don’t get more obvious than this… but we’ll look to get a bit more creative elsewhere for this showdown slate. While I believe there is some merit in fading Kelce tonight, or at least sticking to him as a FLEX play, his upside for 25+ DKFP keeps him well within the captain discussion. Since Patrick Mahomes tends to smash in this Raiders match-up, in direct correlation, so does Kelce. He has posted 23+ DKFP performances in five of the last eight meetings against the Raiders, and he has the same trend as Mahomes where he always goes off in the first Raiders match-up of the season (23+ DKFP in each first game vs. Raiders in the last four years). The Raiders have struggled against quality TEs this season (Wk 2: 15.5 DKFP to Zach Ertz, Wk 1: 14.4 DKFP to Gerald Everett), and Kelce will be the best/most involved TE they’ve gone up against yet this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Josh Jacobs: It’s possible Jacobs and the Raiders run game could get scripted out of this game tonight, but he dominates snaps in this backfield with a 72.2% snap% and owns an elite 93.8% share of the Raiders redzone rushes. Lead RBs have put up some solid, albeit unspectacular, fantasy scores against the Chiefs' defense this season (see image below) and Jacobs has handled an average of 20.5 touches/gm this season, including five receptions in each of the last two games. The Chiefs are 5th in rush DVOA but implied volume keeps Jacobs in the FLEX/contrarian captain picture.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: In terms of overall targets, JuJu (27 TGTs, 19.3% TGT%) is not too far behind Travis Kelce (34 TGTs, 24.3% TGT%) for the team lead. Of course, Kelce’s redzone prowess keeps him firmly ahead of JuJu in the realm of fantasy football scoring but when you have a quarterback like Mahomes who is capable of throwing four or five touchdowns in any given game, the TDs will come sooner rather than later for any Chiefs receiver seeing the sort of volume that JuJu currently claims. JuJu is running 43% of his routes out of the slot and the Raiders currently allow the 2nd-most FPPG to slot WRs.

TE Darren Waller: His fantasy upside has clearly taken a hit with the addition of Davante Adams this season, but Waller remains one of the most physically talented tight ends in the league. With a pair of dud performances in the last two weeks, many will likely look past Waller when building their lineups tonight. However, now that slot man WR Hunter Renfrow (concussion) is set to return, Waller should draw less attention over the middle of the field. The Chiefs have shown that they can be vulnerable against tight ends and have allowed the 7th most FPPG to the position. Again, this is a game where the Raiders will likely have to lean on the pass and Waller still owns a strong 23.3% TGT% in the redzone.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Isiah Pacheco: This electric rookie just passes the eye test every time the ball is in his hands. His sample size is much smaller than all of the RBs ahead of him, but Pacheco currently ranks 8th in the NFL with 2.9 yards after contact per rush. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to work as the primary back, Pacheco is beginning to overtake snaps and touches from Jerick McKinnon, who has been utterly ineffective at times. In 17 rush attempts this season, McKinnon is averaging just 3.1 YPC. On the other hand, Pacheco is averaging 5.0 YPC on his 28 attempts. Pacheco was on the field for only 17 snaps last week (21% snap%), but he handled 11 touches on those limited snaps and rumbled for 63 yards (5.7 YPC). In the same game, McKinnon played just one more snap than Pacheco and only had three touches for zero net yards. There is also potential for additional snaps and opportunities for Pacheco if this turns into a Chiefs blowout. I’ll be throwing a little caution into the wind and rolling with Pacheco as my touchdown call of the night.

WR Hunter Renfrow: He’s been sidelined for the last two games with a concussion and is taking a backseat to Davante Adams, but let’s not forget that Renfrow is coming off of a huge 2021 season where he caught 103 passes on 128 targets for 1,038 yards and nine TDs! It wasn’t as if he was a forgotten man in the two games he played this season -- he saw six targets in week one and 10 targets in week two. The Chiefs have given up the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs (Renfrow: 90% slot%) while his touchdown equity takes a hit with Adams and Waller commanding most of the redzone targets, Renfrow should still be heavily involved in this game.

K Daniel Carlson OR K Matthew Wright: This game is projected to be higher scoring (51.5 O/U) which usually leads to skill position players filling 100% of the optimal lineup. With that said, both kickers are fairly likely to see multiple FGA opportunities and are firmly in play as FLEX value options if you need the savings. There are manageable <10 mph winds expected in KC tonight.

RB Brandon Bolden: Bolden is a dart throw that could see additional snaps due to the game script. He has always been an effective pass-catching RB, so if the Raiders fall behind by multiple scores, there is a pathway for Bolden to see some dump-off passes and garbage time work.

WR Skyy Moore: We keep waiting for a huge game from either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman, but it’s just not happening. Those guys will have big games this season, maybe even tonight. For now, I don’t mind using Skyy Moore as a dart throw. Moore actually started the last game for the first time this season and went on to play a season-high in snaps (22). We’re going on a small sample size, but Moore’s 13.0-yard aDOT is higher than Kelce’s (7.9-yard aDOT), JuJu’s (8.9), Hardman’s (10.5), and MVS’ (10.9). NFL teams don’t spend second-round picks on WRs they don’t intend on using, so as the season wears on, the rookie should gradually become more involved. He could see a couple of deep shots in this game, and if Moore connects on just one of those big plays, he may pay off his modest DFS salary.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Isiah Pacheco

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Skyy Moore: Standard CPTN Mahomes double stack. If you want to mitigate risk, you could replace Moore with one of the other more established receivers like JuJu or MVS.

*WR Davante Adams, QB Derek Carr, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Adams could easily see a dozen targets in this game, and likely more if the Raiders fall behind early. The Raiders can still move the ball effectively against this middling Chiefs defense and Adams is still debatably the best WR in the game.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Josh Jacobs: Kelce’s potential to go for 100+ yards and a touchdown (or two) always makes him a threat to end up as the optimal captain selection. He has a great history against the Raiders and is the most trustworthy receiver on a high-scoring Chiefs offense. We’ll run it back with Josh Jacobs on the other side under the pretense that the Raiders are either leading for much/all of this game or they’re simply keeping it close.

*TE Darren Waller, WR Davante Adams, RB Isiah Pacheco: He hasn’t shown it in a while, but Waller has Kelce-like upside at the TE position but will cost much, much less. The Chiefs have not been great against tight ends this season and there are plenty of theoretical scenarios where Waller (and Adams, in the FLEX) get peppered with a ton of targets in this game. There is a hint of some garbage time production implied with this stack, which includes the Isiah Pacheco “bring back” option in the FLEX.

*QB Derek Carr, WR Davante Adams, WR Hunter Renfrow: I’m not high on Carr as a captain but he does have those random 300+ yard, multi-touchdown games and he has a great arsenal of receivers around him. Also factor in the likelihood that the Raiders are going to HAVE to pass a ton in this game, perhaps upwards of 45 times.

4-2 Raiders Lineup (Fade Mahomes -OR- Kelce): This would be one not-super-risky way to get contrarian on this slate. The vast majority of lineups will either feature balanced 3-3 builds or 4-2 Chiefs-heavy builds. Las Vegas has plenty of weapons that make going to them in a 4-2 Raiders-heavy build viable. Fading one of either Mahomes or Kelce would go even further in setting your lineup(s) apart from the GPP crowd.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season (missed on the SNF plays last night) so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Isiah Pacheco MORE than 22.5 Rushing Yards

Daniel Carlson MORE than 6.5 Kicking Points

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!