After a wildly exciting and bizarre NFL week 15, we’ve reached the Monday Night Football match-up to cap it off. And that match-up is… the Rams at Packers **sad trombone noises.** This would’ve been a much more enticing primetime showdown in recent seasons… this season, not so much. But football junkies are still going to tune in and there are plenty of player props and DFS contests posted to spice things up. Let’s get to it!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) | 39.5 O/U

LAR: 16.0 Implied Points | GB: 23.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Matthew Stafford - IR/OUT, QB John Wolford - OUT, WR Cooper Kupp - IR/OUT, WR Allen Robinson II - IR/OUT

Score Prediction: LAR - 17, GB - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Packers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Rams, 5-1 Packers (GPP sprinkle)

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Rams Defense / Packers Offense

Packers Defense / Rams Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Aaron Jones: He hasn’t been 100% healthy for a while now but Jones and the Packers had their bye week last week, so he’s had time to rest up and won’t carry an injury designation heading into this game. On the season, the Rams have been fairly stout against RBs (8th fewest FPPG allowed). However, without Aaron Donald and A’Shawn Robinson manning the D-Line over the last 2-3 games, RBs have found plenty of success against the Rams, racking up 195 yards over the last two weeks. The Packers are hefty -7.5 home favorites, so you have to figure the game script works out in Jones’ favor as well.

WR Christian Watson: Watson has had one of the best four-game stretches for a rookie in NFL history. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 78.3 YPG which, by itself isn’t incredibly impressive. However, what is impressive are his eight touchdown receptions in those four games. Watson seems to be Aaron Rodgers’ new favorite target and he has laid claim to a 45.8% AirYard% over the last four games along with a team-high 24.3% TGT%. The Rams have given up the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season so there is nothing wrong with the match-up (Watson: 66% perimeter%).

RB Cam Akers: The Rams’ backfield situation has been a headache all season and their most recent game was no exception. Akers still projects to lead this backfield in snaps and opportunities, but he played a rather pedestrian 42% of snaps in week 14 while Kyren Williams played 30% and Malcolm Brown played 28%. Akers will still have a decent shot at 15+ touches, especially if he can get some chunk yardage going early and HC Sean McVay chooses to ride the “hot hand.” The Packers rank dead last in rush DVOA and have allowed the 3rd most rushing YPG to RBs this season, so it’s clearly a great match-up. As long as the Rams stay within striking distance on the scoreboard, Akers and the run game should be a central focus.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Aaron Rodgers: He’s the second-most expensive player on the slate but the upside just has not been there this season. Rodgers has not scored more than 20.36 DKFP in any game this season. However, he has scored at least 15.76 DKFP in 9-of-13 games, which will make him a preferred high-floor FLEX play. The Rams are giving up 271.0 passing YPG and 1.8 passing TDs/gm over their last four games and, even though he’s a bit banged up with thumb/rib injuries, Rodgers a “fine” option for tonight’s primetime slate.

WR Van Jefferson: Jefferson salvaged his fantasy day in week 14 by catching the game-winning touchdown in the Rams’ unlikely Baker Mayfield-led comeback over the Raiders. This is a limited Rams passing attack with Mayfield at the helm, but there is a strong possibility that they’ll be playing catch-up throughout this game. Jefferson has a deep 15.5-yard aDOT this season so, while he may not rack up a ton of targets, he is a big play threat if Mayfield can deliver some accurately thrown passes. The Packers are giving up the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (Jefferson: 71% perimeter%) so there is room for some upside here.

WR Ben Skowronek: Skowronek showed an early connection with QB Baker Mayfield last week, leading the team in receptions (7) and receiving yards (89) while playing 100% of the snaps and finishing second in targets (8). Despite the banged-up Rams WR corps, Skowronek has been unable to take advantage of his additional opportunities in the games before week 14, but shoddy QB play could be to blame. I don’t know if I would call Baker Mayfield a significant upgrade from John Wolford or the 2022 version of Matthew Stafford, but he at least made Skowronek fantasy-relevant last week.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Packers D/ST: The Packers D/ST has not been great this season. They rank 23rd in overall DVOA, 27th in sacks, and 13th in turnover%. But they are at home in primetime facing Baker Mayfield, who has been on the Rams roster for barely over a week. The Rams have a meager 16.0 implied total tonight as well and they’ve had two weeks to game plan and get healthy for this game.

WR Tutu Atwell: The speedy wideout did not play a full complement of snaps in week 14 (61% snap%), however, he still led the team with nine targets. This is essentially a throwaway season for the Rams so it wouldn’t surprise me to see if the Rams are giving a player like Atwell an extended “audition” to see if he could be their poor man’s version of Tyreek Hill in the coming season(s). Atwell owns a deep 19.9-yard aDOT this season so, when the Rams are looking for big plays downfield, Atwell is a likely candidate to be on the receiving end.

K Mason Crosby / K Matt Gay: Although it is going to be extremely cold at Lambeau Field tonight, winds shouldn’t be an issue. A low 39.5 O/U suggests more field goals than touchdowns, so both kickers are set up as perfectly fine value FLEX plays -- Crosby being the “safer” option on the heavily-favored offense.

RB Malcolm Brown: He’s only $800 on DraftKings and is once again on the active roster for the second consecutive week. If he plays around 30% of the snaps, like he did last week, then he’ll likely receive a handful of touches. It won’t take much for him to pay off the $800 price tag.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Aaron Jones

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Aaron Jones, Packers D/ST, WR Ben Skowronek: Good chance we see a healthy Aaron Jones handle 20+ touches tonight. He’ll have multi-touchdown upside in this game and should be able to take advantage of a depleted Rams defensive front. Pair him with the Packers' D/ST for correlation purposes and run it back with a Rams WR.

*WR Christian Watson, QB Aaron Rodgers, K Mason Crosby: Can Watson continue his insane rookie run and extend his touchdown streak to five games? The odds are pretty good. When you earn the confidence of Aaron Rodgers, he’ll usually hoist you into consistent fantasy relevance. We’ll stack Rodgers with Watson and throw in Crosby to potentially gain exposure to every Packers’ point scored in this game.

*RB Cam Akers, WR Van Jefferson, QB Baker Mayfield: I’ll call this the “Rams perform unexpectedly well” stack. Akers rumbles for 90+ yards and two touchdowns, Mayfield passes for 300+ yards, and Jefferson posts a 7-120-1 receiving line. It’s a crazy and unlikely outcome, but did you watch the rest of the NFL games this past weekend? The NFL is pretty drunk at the moment.

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Christian Watson, WR Allen Lazard: As discussed above, Rodgers makes much more sense as a FLEX play but, if he happens to post a vintage performance tonight, this sort of CPTN Rodgers double stack could be viable.

5-1 Packers-Heavy Stacks: We can’t pretend as if the 5-8 Packers have been good this year but the Rams have been downright awful at times. If this game ends in some sort of 28-10 type of blowout, then a 5-1 Packers-heavy “smash” stack may end up filling out the optimal lineup. 5-1 Packers stacks will be very low-owned in GPPs, so it’s worth consideration if you’re playing more than a few lineups tonight.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Jones MORE than 86.5 Rush + Receiving Yards

Cam Akers MORE than 52.5 Rush Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!