Lamar Jackson and the 5-3 Ravens hit the road as slight -1.5 favorites over Alvin Kamara and the 3-5 Saints. Let's look at the best DFS plays and props to consider for this primetime showdown!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints | 46.5 O/U

BAL: 24.0 Implied Points | NO: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: TE Mark Andrews - OUT, WR Michael Thomas - OUT/IR, RB Gus Edwards - OUT, WR Rashod Bateman - Out, WR Demarcus Robinson - IN, WR Jarvis Landry - OUT, RB Mark Ingram II - OUT

Score Prediction: BAL - 23, NO - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 4-2 Saints

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Ravens Defense / Saints Offense

Saints Defense / Ravens Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Lamar Jackson: Lamar has certainly cooled off since posting two 40+ FP performances within the first three weeks of the season. Regardless, he still steps in as the best floor play in this game and theoretically has the most upside. He will be missing two of his key weapons with TE Mark Andrews and WR Rashod Bateman both sidelined tonight. However, perhaps that leads to Jackson doing more damage with his legs than usual. He has averaged 69.1 YPG on the ground this season and we know he has the potential to go for 100+ yards and earn that valuable yardage bonus on DraftKings. Due to his very average fantasy scores in recent weeks combined with his slate-high DFS salary, I do believe Jackson’s captain ownership will be lower than it should be so this may be a strong buy-low spot tonight.

RB Alvin Kamara: Kamara’s usage has been stellar in recent weeks, and it’s exactly what we want out of a captain play. He now has at least six targets and six catches in four straight games and he’s averaging 17.8 carries/gm in that span as well. Some positive touchdown regression finally hit Kamara last week when he scored his first, second, and third touchdowns of the season. The Ravens have been without hulking run-stopper Michael Pierce since week three and they have ranked 25th in the NFL in rush DVOA. Baltimore is also allowing 6.3 receptions/gm to RBs this season, which plays directly into Kamara’s versatile usage in the Saints’ offense.

TE Isaiah Likely: Mark Andrews is out tonight and Rashod Bateman is shut down for the rest of the season. Those two guys leave behind a 41.4% TGT% that must be distributed elsewhere. When Andrews was knocked out of last week’s game after playing just 13 snaps, Likely came in to play 67% of snaps and he looked like Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, catching 6-of-7 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Likely is an extremely talented rookie athlete and he should possess a key role tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Chris Olave: In his last five games, Olave has commanded a team-leading 28.0% TGT% and a 39.4% share of the Saints' total air yards. Some injuries to the Saints receiving corps have helped to speed along Olave’s meteoric rise but the rookie is also just extremely, extremely talented. He’s a strong candidate to lead the Saints in targets tonight and this Ravens secondary has been picked apart at times this season while allowing the 4th most FPPG to opposing WRs.

WR Devin Duvernay: Duvernay now steps in as the de facto WR1 for Baltimore. Once Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews were knocked out of last week’s game after both played only 13 snaps, Duvernay went on to post one of his best fantasy performances of the season. He caught all four of his targets for 31 yards and was a factor as a runner, taking two carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. Duvernay should receive a strong share of opportunities tonight and he won’t have to deal with top Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game. Without Lattimore available in recent weeks, the Saints have allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last month (Duvernay: 73% perimeter%).

QB Taysom Hill: Hill is perhaps the gold standard when it comes to an offensive Swiss Army knife. He runs the ball, passes the ball, and catches the ball. And no one can forget his wild week five performance where he took nine carries for 112 yards and three touchdowns. Rostering Taysom Hill is a bit risky because there’s never any way to truly tell what sort of opportunities he will have. However, the Saints love to utilize him in several creative redzone packages and he’s likely going to operate as the “RB2” in this game with Mark Ingram II sidelined.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Demarcus Robinson: He’s currently questionable to play but if he suits up, Robinson could be one of the top Ravens targets in this game. Without Andrews or Bateman for most of last week, Robinson went on to catch 6-of-8 targets for 64 yards while playing 63% of snaps. If he is ruled out, James Proche II stands to see increased opportunities.

WR Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed has a zero-point floor so be cautious about this play. But he is emerging as a big play threat after catching a 53-yard TD in week seven and running for a 44-yard TD the week before. It’s a minuscule five-target sample size but Shaheed has a huge 21.2-yard aDOT so if he can connect on one or two big plays, he could land in as an optimal play given his relatively low DFS salary.

K Justin Tucker OR K Will Lutz: Tucker is the best in the business and he should be a popular, but safe, option in this low-end salary range. Will Lutz won’t be nearly as high-owned as Tucker, but he has similar upside for multiple FG attempts, so I would keep him in mind for GPPs. There are no weather concerns with this game being played in the Superdome.

RB Justice Hill: Kenyan Drake is likely going to lead the Ravens backfield in touches but Hill should get involved as well, especially since Gus Edwards is looking doubtful to play. In his limited opportunities, Hill has been effective while averaging 6.4 YPC and he has seven broken tackles in only 28 rush attempts (4.0 attempts per broken tackle). The hope would be he gets around 8-to-12 carries, in which case he’s not a bad dart throw for $2,200 on DK.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

TE Isaiah Likely

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Lamar Jackson, TE Isaiah Likely, WR Devin Duvernay: Lamar Jackson isn’t the sort of QB that you have to double-stack with, but I do like the idea of stacking Likely and Duvernay with him as those two guys could combine for upwards of 50% of the targets tonight.

*RB Alvin Kamara, QB Lamar Jackson, K Justin Tucker: This is the core I would start with for cash games tonight. All three guys provide a strong floor relative to their DFS salaries.

*TE Isaiah Likely, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Rashid Shaheed: With a $5,800 (CPT: $8,700) showdown salary, Likely won’t break the bank if you choose to roll him out at the captain spot. The Saints have been incredibly stout against opposing tight ends this season (fewest FPPG allowed) but they also haven’t faced many talented or heavily involved TEs either. Given his size and athleticism, the Ravens should be creative in how they choose to use Likely tonight.

*WR Chris Olave, QB Andy Dalton, RB Kenyan Drake: Olave has put together an impressive rookie campaign and should continue to dominate the Saints’ target share and air yards. Dalton and Drake were not discussed much in this newsletter but it is usually wise to go with some correlation by stacking a QB in the FLEX when you have his WR in at captain. Also, this stack somewhat insinuates that the Saints are playing from behind, so run it back with Drake on the other side, working under the assumption that he handles the bulk of the Ravens' RB touches.

*QB Taysom Hill, WR Chris Olave, K Will Lutz (Fade Alvin Kamara): This is definitely a GPP-only kinda stack but if Taysom Hill pops off for one of his crazy games, then it probably means that Alvin Kamara gets vultured of any rushing TDs. We’ll fill out this weird CPTN Hill lineup with a couple more Saints players in the off-chance that they blow out the Ravens tonight.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!