Who wants to win the NFC South? Genuinely asking because it’s been a mess this season, but the division is still fully up for grabs. This Monday Night Football match-up will either help to paint a clearer picture with a Bucs win or muddy the division standings even further with a Saints victory. Let’s dive into some DFS plays for tonight’s single-game contests!

Also, FYI the Manning Cast returns tonight!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) | 41.0 O/U

NO: 19.0 Implied Points | TB: 22.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Leonard Fournette - Questionable (expected to play), TE Juwan Johnson - OUT, WR Russell Gage - Questionable, TE Cameron Brate - Questionable

Score Prediction: NO - 17, TB - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bucs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Saints, 5-1 Bucs (Light GPP Sprinkle)

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Buccaneers Defense / Saints Offense

Saints Defense / Buccaneers Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Chris Godwin: Godwin posted a huge 13-target, 12-catch, 110-yard, touchdown performance in week 12. He has now commanded double-digit targets in 6-of-8 games since he returned from injury in week four and he has scored double-digit fantasy points in eight straight games. This Bucs offense has sputtered far too much this season but Godwin has taken on the role of Tom Brady’s go-to safety net. I’m not a fan of his slate-high $10,600 (CPT: $15,900) showdown salary on DraftKings but you do receive a good floor with Godwin as your captain tonight.

QB Tom Brady: It’s not a glamorous or exciting choice, but Tom Brady has scored between 15.2 and 20.1 DKFP over his last four games (17.6 FPPG average) which, in a likely low-scoring match-up, may be all you need at captain tonight. Brady has also averaged 53.1% more fantasy points when playing at home this season (19.9 FPPG in six home games) and he has attempted 27% more passes when the Bucs (-3) are favored.

WR Chris Olave: There aren’t many 20+ FP upside plays in this game, but Olave certainly is one guy who could have a big night. He owns a team-high 26.2% TGT% and an incredible 41.5% ownership of the Saints’ total air yards. He is limited by lackluster play from Andy Dalton (I’ll say it again… FREE JAMEIS!) but this is a sneaky-decent match-up against a Bucs’ secondary that has allowed the 10th most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks. Do note that the Bucs will get starting safety Logan Ryan back, who was activated off of the IR ahead of tonight’s game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Alvin Kamara: I’ve gotta be honest… the way the Saints are using Kamara is kind of depressing. Despite ranking 6th among RBs in yards per route run and 7th in yards created per touch, Kamara just isn’t carrying much of a lead RB workload; he’s averaging just 13 touches/gm over the last four weeks and has just one game this season where he found the endzone (thrice against the Raiders in week eight). Furthermore, he’ll be up against a Bucs defense that allows the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs. It’s a bunch of bad news for Kamara but I do believe you can still look to him as a FLEX/contrarian captain option thanks to his elite play-making ability and overall fantasy ceiling. If the Saints want to make a real push to win the most mediocre division in football, they’d be wise to give Kamara all the work he can handle tonight.

WR Mike Evans: If you’ve followed NFL fairly closely in recent years, you’re probably aware of the heated rivalry that exists between Bucs WR Mike Evans and top Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. Their last meeting was in week two and led to punches being thrown and Evans being ejected (and suspended for the following week). At the time of this writing, Lattimore is questionable to play tonight. If he’s active, I may be off of Evans entirely, and here’s why: (via Mike Clay, ESPN) “Evans' stat lines in the games Lattimore shadowed him are as follows (in chronological order starting with 2017): 5-55-0, 7-147-1, 4-86-0, 0-0-0, 1-2-1, 4-64-0, 1-3-1, 2-48-1, 1-14-0, and most recently, 3-61-0.” Lattimore has clearly held Evans in check for most of their meetings, and there is a realistic chance that emotions could run high and lead to another ejection… I wouldn’t rule it out at least. All of this to say, if Lattimore is out tonight, Evans is a fine FLEX/contrarian captain target. He’s had a rough few games recently, but he does bring multi-touchdown and 20+ FP upside to the table.

RB Rachaad White: After missing week 12’s game, Leonard Fournette carries a questionable tag into tonight’s match-up but is expected to suit up. Even with Fournette in the mix, I believe Rachaad White would be my preferred Bucs RB to target. Fournette has simply been far too inefficient this season, ranking 49th in yards before contact per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. White hasn’t been stellar himself, but over the last two weeks, he has taken 36 carries for 169 yards which works out to a respectable 4.7 YPC average. He also saw an eye-popping nine targets last week and caught all of them for 45 yards. We can expect a split Bucs backfield tonight but I wouldn’t be surprised if White handled around 60% of snaps, including most passing down and two-minute drill work.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

QB/TE/Gadget Guy Taysom Hill: Given the way that the Saints utilize Taysom Hill in their offense, he typically needs to at least be considered in single-game DFS formats. He has just one big game this season but he may have a wider pathway to usage as a receiver thanks to the TE Juwan Johnson being out.

WR Jarvis Landry: He’s a touch expensive for my liking but Landry remains a FLEX candidate do to drawing the most favorable Saints receiving match-up. The Bucs have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs this season, which is where Landry has run 69% of his routes.

K Ryan Succop OR K Will Lutz: You know the deal. A low 41-point total means we’re likely to see more field goals than touchdowns tonight. Both kickers are in play with Succop being the preferred option on the “better” offense.

TE Adam Trautman: He should be a popular punt play tonight at $1,200 on DraftKings. No Juwan Jennings also means increased snaps and maybe a couple of extra targets for Trautman. At the very least, he shouldn’t leave your lineup(s) hanging with a goose egg.

Monday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Alvin Kamara

🔂 RT the Touchdown Call Tweet below for a chance to win cash or a free one-month LineStar Premium subscription! 🔂

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Chris Godwin, QB Tom Brady, TE Adam Trautman: By this game’s standards, this CPTN Godwin/FLEX Brady WR/QB stack provides a solid floor and decent ceiling. Godwin and Brady are the two most expensive options on the board tonight so we’ll save some salary by utilizing Trautman as a cheap bring back option.

*QB Tom Brady, WR Chris Godwin, WR Julio Jones: Standard CPTN Brady double stack. Outside of Godwin, it is hard to trust any other Bucs receiver… especially if Marshon Lattimore can suit up and shadow Mike Evans. Julio Jones has been decent enough and has two TDs in the last four games so I don’t mind him as a cheaper stack option with Brady.

*WR Chris Olave, QB Andy Dalton, RB Rachaad White: I love Olave’s skillset but hate his QB situation. Still, for correlation purposes, we’ll stack Dalton in the FLEX with Olave at captain and run it back with Rachaad White on the other side. This stack sort of insinuates that the Bucs play with the lead and feed White touches while the Saints are forced into more passing situations, with Olave being the primary receiving target.

*RB Alvin Kamara, K Will Lutz, WR Chris Godwin: I wouldn’t blame you if you faded Kamara altogether tonight. While we may not be getting prime Kamara anymore, he’s still a dynamic back who can break off huge chunk plays and catch a ton of passes. If he breaks his touchdown curse and the Saints decide to give him workhorse volume, he could conceivably end the night as the optimal captian play.

*RB Rachaad White, K Ryan Succop, WR Chris Olave: Similar stack concept as the CPTN Kamara build above, just flipping the teams/players. Fournette is going to eat into White’s ceiling a bit, but I would still expect 15+ opportunities for the third-round rookie.

PrizePicks MNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Monday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

*Chris Godwin MORE than 56.5 Receiving Yards

Alvin Kamara MORE than 29.5 Receiving Yards

*PrizePicks has discounted the Godwin receiving yards prop by 15% from his standard yards prop (66.5 O/U).

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NFL -- available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!