By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

🥇 Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy (Top Half of the Article)

📝 Week 4 NFL Takeaway by @ZeroInDenver

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

NFL Week 3 Primetime Preview

Grab that clicker, a cold beer, and kick your feet up as we get set for another loaded week in the NFL. The week five primetime schedule is setting up as yet another superb one. Thursday kicks things off with a crucial NFC West showdown between the Rams and Seahawks with a significant division title and postseason implications. Sunday night features a potential “game of the year” candidate between two Super Bowl LVI contenders and a 2020 AFC Championship rematch with the Bills traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face off with the Chiefs. Finally, with no sugarcoating it, the week will wrap up with a pretty ‘meh’ AFC tilt between the Colts and Ravens on Monday Night Football… but we have been pleasantly surprised by similar match-ups this season! It’s a star-studded week in primetime with no shortage of ways to go about attacking these three showdown DFS slates! Let’s get after it!

Note: At the time of this writing, showdown salaries are only available for the TNF game.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 4 Primetime Games

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks | 54.5 O/U

LAR: 28.8 implied points | SEA: 25.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Chris Carson (neck) - Questionable, TE Gerald Everett (C19) - Questionable, WR Dee Eskridge (concussion) - Questionable, RB Rashaad Penny (calf) - IR/Out

Score Prediction: SEA - 30, LAR - 28

Lineup Construction: Second highest total of the week in the NFL behind only the much-anticipated SNF match-up. This is a game that has balanced 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) builds written all over it. The Rams are the more talented and overall balanced team here, but it’s tough to bet against the Seahawks as slight home underdogs who are led by the ever-resolute Russell Wilson who will be seeking his 10th consecutive win on Thursday Night Football. Even though it is only week five, a victory here will go a long way in increasing both teams’ postseason outlook as the Seahawks and Rams are currently looking up at the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals sitting atop the NFC West division.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Russell Wilson: We haven’t seen a ceiling game out of Russ in quite a long time, not since the early half of last season. But every NFL fan knows what the man can do. The Rams defense ranks more towards the middle of the pack in terms of pass DVOA. The fact that the Rams offense plays at the fastest pace in the NFL in situation-neutral tempo should conversely help boost the Seahawks offensive potential. If RB Chris Carson is forced to miss this game, a bit more emphasis may be placed on the passing game as well.

QB Matthew Stafford: He's coming off of his most inefficient game of the season but Stafford is still averaging over 300 YPG and will face a bottom 10 Seahawks pass defense.

WR Cooper Kupp: Kupp is leading the league with 46 targets. Double-digit targets in every game and a monstrous 35% TGT%. Kupp (69% routes ran out of the slot) draws an excellent match-up against Ugo Amadi (100% snaps covered in the slot). Seahawks have allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs.

WR DK Metcalf: 31.8% TGT% and Metcalf accounts for a massive 49.8% AirYard% for Seattle. Rams have surrendered the 13th most FPPG to perimeter WRs. It’s possible Metcalf sees plenty of Jalen Ramsey coverage but on his worst days, Metcalf is a match-up nightmare, on his best days he is uncoverable. He popped up on the injury report earlier in the week with a foot issue, but has since been taken off and carries no injury designation into TNF.

WR Tyler Lockett: Started off the year with 8/278/3 over the first two games but has since gone 8/55/0 in the last two weeks. He’s a volatile option, but Seahawks targets are so heavily funneled to their two primary receivers, so Lockett demands captain consideration.

RB Darrell Henderson Jr.: No injury designation heading into TNF after dealing with a ribs injury. Henderson suffered the injury in week two against the Colts and was held out of week three action. In the two games where he played and stayed healthy all game, he was in on 94% and 90% of offensive snaps. Seahawks run defense has been awful, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to RBs

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Robert Woods: He’s taken a clear backseat to Kupp and is seeing only an 18.7% TGT%. There has been some ‘coach speak’ about getting him the ball more, but it’s more of an “I’ll believe it when I see it” situation. He has still played 88.1% of snaps. If the Seahawks commit to double-covering and bracketing off Kupp, Woods could be in line for his best game of the season.

RB Alex Collins: *If Chris Carson is out. At $3,200, Collins has value regardless since, even if Carson plays, he may be limited. Obviously, if Carson can’t suit up, Collins should handle the majority of RB touches. If given that full workload, Collins is a very intriguing value captain selection as well which could unlock plenty of stud FLEX plays.

WR Van Jefferson Jr.: Six targets in back-to-back weeks. He’s pushing for an 80% snap% and has a strong 13.8-yard aDOT. Jefferson, the 57th overall pick in the 2020 draft, could be emerging as the secondary target in this offense behind Kupp.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Tyler Higbee: A bit TD dependent, but he’s seen 5+ targets in 3-of-4 games and rarely comes off the field (91% snap%). He’s been cleared from the injury report after dealing with an ankle injury.

WR Freddie Swain: He’s taken over as the Seahawks primary slot receiver and has earned a 67.7% snap%. It has only translated to an 11.8% TGT% but he has been making the most of his opportunities with a 75% catch rate. Rams have allowed the 12th most FPPG to slot WRs.

K Matt Gay/Jason Myers: Both kickers, priced under $4,000, carry strong median projections in a game with a high 54.5 O/U.

RB Sony Michel: He’d likely need a Henderson injury in order to have a truly impactful workload, but Henderson has had trouble staying healthy throughout his football career.

WR DeSean Jackson: We know DJax’s M.O. at this point. He’s going to likely see a couple of deep shots (21.6 yard aDOT) and whether or not he comes down with one or two of those will determine if he does anything of value in this game. He’ll likely carry lower ownership than any other WR mentioned above.

RB Travis Homer: Complete punt but if the Seahawks fall behind by a decent margin in this game, Homer could see some usage as the preferred passing downs RB.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection

*Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Freddie Swain: Wilson is of course a capable runner but it’s not something he really does much if he can help it. So, when “captaining” QBs who are more likely to get the vast majority of their FPs via passing the ball, you’ll usually want to stack two or three of their pass catchers. Lockett obviously makes sense here in place of Swain, but leaving Lockett out of this particular stack will still leave a decent chunk of salary left over for other FLEX positions.

*Matthew Stafford, Van Jefferson Jr., Robert Woods (Fade Kupp): Most CPT Stafford lineups will spend up for Kupp as well… and Kupp is going to be highly owned regardless. Fading him in some lineups would be a nice leverage approach, especially if he has another inefficient game like last week (13 targets but only caught five for 64 yards).

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Tyler Lockett: On the flip side, Kupp can go off as he did in weeks one thru three. It’s not far-fetched at all to give Kupp about a 50% chance of being this game’s top overall fantasy scorer, in which case he would likely finish the game as the optimal captain selection, even at his lofty salary.

*Alex Collins, Russell Wilson, Jason Myers: (If Carson is out) This stack carries potential exposure to every Seahawks score & would leave tons of salary left over to fill out the remaining FLEX spots.

*Darrell Henderson Jr., DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett: It’s reasonable to predict 20+ touches for Henderson *if* the Rams play with a lead throughout this game. That would produce a pass-heavy game script on the Seahawks side of the ball in return.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | 56.5 O/U

BUF: 26.8 implied points | KC: 29.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: BUF - 28, KC - 35

Lineup Construction: Let’s be real; the media had no choice but to hype up Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough but this AFC Championship rematch really feels like the most anticipated game up to this point in the season. A shootout is all but guaranteed here as two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL get set to clash. As you might expect, I’ll be going after, and recommending, even 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) builds with only a sprinkle of consideration going towards 5-1 ‘smash’ builds. The score prediction above is always just for fun. I truly have no idea who is going to come away from this game victorious but it’s sure to be a hell of an entertaining Sunday night! (Now… watch this game disappoint us all by being some sort of 20-10 snooze-fest)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Patrick Mahomes: The Bills absolutely possess the defensive advantage in this game. Buffalo ranks 1st overall in pass DVOA and have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs… though their list of competition includes Davis Mills, Taylor Heinicke, Jacoby Brissett, and Ben Roethlisberger -- three QBs who started the year as backups and one who looks like he should be watching games from the couch instead. Needless to say, Mahomes will be light years ahead of anyone the Buffalo secondary has gone up against this season.

QB Josh Allen: Buffalo had a sluggish loss against Pittsburgh in week one then went on to handle their next three opponents with complete ease. Allen did post a ceiling game against Washington, but this game environment quite obviously sets up well for another one of those performances. As usual, his legs add significant value to his fantasy upside and he’s provided 35+ rushing yards in 3-of-4 games this season.

WR Tyreek Hill: Some may worry about Hill seeing shadow coverage from Bills lockdown CB Tre’Davious White but, per Mike Clay at ESPN, Hill was only covered by White on 10-of-63 routes in their two meetings last season. The Chiefs move Hill all over the formation, making shadow coverage on him an extremely difficult task for opposing defenses. He’s the most dynamic offensive weapon in the league and if it hasn’t been made apparent by now, he possesses the highest ceiling of any player in this game (but carries quite a bit of volatility).

TE Travis Kelce: Kelce is going to garner his usual high ownership in single-game contests, but perhaps to a lesser extent following his week four dud (4/23/0 on six targets). In two games against the Bills last season, Kelce went off for a combined 18/183/4 on 22 targets.

WR Stefon Diggs: No ceiling games for Diggs yet on the young season but the targets have been there (10.5 tgt/gm, 27.3% TGT%) and the Bills have yet to really get into any sort of shootout, as they likely will on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled mightily against perimeter WRs (4th most FPPG) which is where Diggs is running 80% of his routes. I’m loving his chances of a big 30+ DKFP day here.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH has posted back-to-back 100 yard games with a receiving touchdown in both. The downside is he has played on just 62% and 54% of snaps in those two games and he’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 2nd in run DVOA. We can still expect CEH to handle around 15 carries to go along with a few targets. If positive touchdown variance strikes for the third week in a row, he’s likely to land as an optimal FLEX play.

WR Emmanuel Sanders: As mentioned above with Diggs, the Chiefs have surrendered the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs where Sanders has run 74% of his routes. Slot WR Cole Beasley has a difficult match-up with L’Jarius Sneed (62% of routes covered in the slot) where KC has allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG. After averaging 6.3 tgt/gm through four weeks, this could be a good opportunity for Sanders to garner closer to around 10 targets in a more pass-heavy game script. Sanders also leads all Bills to pass catchers with a strong 16.04 yard aDOT and seems to be a favorite downfield target of Josh Allen’s.

TE Dawson Knox: He’s been Mr. Redzone for the Bills lately and has secured four TDs in his previous three games. Overall, Knox has a modest 13.3% TGT% in this Bills offense. However, he’s boosted that to a 20.3% TGT% when inside the redzone and he has secured 83.3% of his RZ targets. In a game where each team should make many redzone trips and realistically score 5+ touchdowns, you do have to like Knox's chances to extend his streak to four straight games with a tuddy.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Josh Gordon: Trying to nail the third receiving option in the Chiefs offense has been an exercise of futility for multiple years now. There are many, many unknowns about Gordon this week. He is expected to make his debut, but how much will he actually play? Does he have a decent grasp on the playbook? Is he only going to be assigned to run a few go routes to stretch the field and take attention away from Tyreek and Kelce? Who knows, really. But reportedly, Gordon showed up to the Chiefs facility in excellent shape, has impressed in workouts, and has drawn high praise from his new teammates and coaches. As much as we don’t know about Gordon and his intended role this week, the Bill defense will be in a similar boat as well. He’s worth a shot in single-game GPPs. If anything, there’s always the novelty feeling of being let down by Josh Gordon one more time.

K Harrison Butker/Tyler Bass: It's the same deal as most games with a massive 50+ point over. Kickers will often provide strong median projections in relation to their showdown salaries.

RB Zack Moss: It’s beginning to look like Moss is a solid bet to get around 15 touches, including valuable redzone work. But I do have concerns about how recent Bills game scripts have dictated things in Moss’ favor. If the Bills play from behind, they could just abandon the run game altogether or Devin Singletary could become the preferred option.

RB Darrel Williams: He's playing around a third of RB snaps over the last two games and saw a season-high 12 touches (with a TD) last week. CEH has had some fumble issues so if he happens to put it on the ground again, or just proves to be ineffective early on, I imagine Andy Reid would not hesitate to hand the bulk of the Chiefs RB workload over to Williams.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders: Bills perimeter passing attack stack, exploiting Kansas City’s defensive weakness (4th most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs).

*Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox: Going CPT Tyreek + Mahomes will eat up a major chunk of salary. You likely won’t be able to squeeze Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs in as well, not comfortably at least, so gaining exposure through the Bills passing game via Sanders & Knox makes sense.

*Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce (or Tyreek, but not both), Josh Gordon: As noted further up, showdown salaries are not available for this game at the time of this writing. I’m going to assume going CPT Mahomes + Kelce *and* Tyreek would force you into taking at least two total punt FLEX plays. While similar builds have worked out to be optimal in the past, it’s not incredibly likely -- especially when the Bills are [likely] going to score 24+ points themselves with pricier players making pushes for the optimal lineup. So, all this to say, this particular CPT Mahomes double pass-catcher stack takes on the risk/reward of including Josh Gordon to pair with the more known quantity of Travis Kelce (or Tyreek).

*Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Harrison Butker: I do have a good feeling about this being Diggs’ best fantasy outing of the season thus far and he will likely carry low captain ownership in relation to the other four studs in this game. There’s decent leverage to be had with this stack.

5-1 ‘Smash’ Builds: Even in games where a team is favored by 10+ points, it is pretty rare for a 5-1 build to be the optimal approach in showdowns. But, realistically, both of these teams are strong enough to blow the other one out, under the right circumstances. If you’re an MME player who enters 20+ lineups, I’d perhaps aim to allocate 10-15% of lineup exposure towards 5-1 builds.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-7) | 46 O/U

IND: 19.5 implied points | BAL: 26.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: IND - 20, BAL - 24

Lineup Construction: So, this match-up certainly takes a backseat in terms of intrigue and excitability by comparison to the other two primetime tilts this week. But football is football and I can think of many other NFL games that would be less enticing than this one! I would look to have mostly 4-2 Ravens builds followed somewhat closely by 3-3 balanced builds. The Colts operate at one of the slowest offensive tempos in the league and Baltimore features their usual run-heavy scheme, so I would lean towards the under-hitting here. It’s likely to be a major change of pace from the previous night’s primetime game, that’s for sure!

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Lamar Jackson: I would expect Jackson to absolutely run away with captain ownership here. He has only posted one ceiling game this season but he easily brings the best floor + ceiling combo to the table in this spot. The Colts defense ranks 26th in pass DVOA but 5th in run DVOA. With that in mind, while Lamar is still going to deliver his normal dosage of scrambles and designed runs, perhaps his arm will be what carries his fantasy potential on Monday night. His 316 yards through the air last Sunday were both a season-high for Jackson and the most passing yards he’s thrown for in a game since week one of 2019 against Miami. If the Colts contain the Ravens run game on the ground, perhaps another high-volume passing game is in order.

QB Carson Wentz: He’s only averaging 229.5 yards/gm but will face a middle-of-the-pack Ravens secondary (14th in pass DVOA) which is allowing 293.3 yards/gm to opposing QBs. However, those numbers are skewed quite a bit by Derek Carr’s week one overtime performance where he threw for 455 yards -- the following week, Patrick Mahomes went for 343 yards against Baltimore. It’ll take Wentz’s best game of the season in order for him to come away as the optimal captain selection, but Indy should be playing from behind in this game, so it’s not completely out of the question.

WR Marquise Brown: Baltimore is only passing it on 51.5% of plays (4th lowest) but when they do go to the air, 33% of targeted air yards have gone in Brown’s direction. Touchdowns are not easily predicted, but Brown has found the endzone in nine of his last 12 games, going back to week 12 of 2020.

RB Jonathan Taylor: The 20 touch potential with some goal line work mixed in with a few targets will keep Taylor within captain consideration. Taylor will likely need the Colts to keep things close on the scoreboard, or pull ahead outright, in order to develop a more positive script for the Indy ground game

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

TE Mark Andrews: Andrews being held out of the endzone through four weeks is not a trend I see continuing for very much longer. He has still garnered a respectable 21.6% TGT% while posting a high 72% catch rate. The two redzone targets on the season for Andrews simply feels like a figure that is soon due to increase rapidly.

WR Sammy Watkins: His team-leading 29 targets are actually one more than Marquise Brown and he’s seen only 48 fewer air yards -- good for a 29.8% AirYard%. Watkins simply hasn’t found the endzone yet this season, otherwise, his fantasy totals would appear much more similar to Brown’s.

RB Latavius Murray: With Ty’Son Williams being a healthy scratch last week, Murray led the way with a 62% snap% and handled 18 carries. That only amounted to 59 yards (3.3 YPC) but he did find the endzone to make the final box score look a bit better. This Ravens backfield is not an exciting situation to deal with and it's more difficult than ever to try to figure out, but if Murray is being handed the keys to the car, it’s a valuable role to be behind the wheel.

WR Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman is rarely coming off the field (93.6% snap%) this season and his 9.0 tgt/gm has translated to a borderline elite 26.5% TGT%. With zero receiving touchdowns, he’s another positive TD regression candidate in this game and is easily the preferred Colts WR to the roster.

RB Nyheim Hines: He’s had a very healthy 45.6% snap% this season and the most likely way this game plays out will find the Colts playing from behind for much, or all, of the contest. The Colts didn’t sign Hines to a healthy contract extension (which made him among the top 10 highest paid RBs in the NFL through 2024) to *not* use him. If the game flow does work out as expected, Hines provides reasonably strong PPR upside.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Justin Tucker: Best kicker in the game. He’s averaging 12 FPPG and will fall firmly within FLEX consideration.

WR Zach Paschal: He’s played just seven fewer snaps than Pittman this season, equating to a 90.2% snap%. What is most notable about Paschal are his nine redzone targets and 40.9% RZ TGT%. He hasn’t surpassed 44 yards in a game this season so he’ll check-in as a TD dependent FLEX option in this game.

WR James Proche: It’s been an ongoing battle for the honors of taking over the Ravens third WR job (which, admittedly, isn't a super valuable fantasy role) but Proche impressed last week and may have an edge over Devin Duvernay heading into week five. Despite playing only 24 offensive snaps (33% snap%) last week, Proche commanded six targets, catching five for 74 yards.

Baltimore D/ST: The Ravens D looked scrappy last week, holding Denver to seven points and racking up five sacks with a turnover. In a game where Indy may struggle to score 20 points, the Ravens could secure double-digit fantasy points for a second consecutive week.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Justin Tucker: I’ll usually try to get 2+ of a QB’s pass catchers when taking the position at captain but Lamar doesn’t necessarily call for that criteria to be met, given his rushing potential.

*Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman Jr., Marquise Brown: If Wentz comes away as the optimal captain, I imagine Pittman has a pretty big day himself. It makes sense to run it back with Brown, who has been a TD magnet and is Lamar’s favorite downfield target.

*Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, Sammy Watkins: If Taylor is popping off and leading the way as the optimal captain, that likely means the Ravens get pushed towards a more aggressive offensive game plan on the other side.

*Latavius Murray, Baltimore D/ST, Michael Pittman Jr.: Assuming the Ravens are actually committing to him as their lead ball carrier, Latavius could push for 20+ touches in a positive game script. It makes sense to run it back with the Ravens D/ST along with the Colts top target leader.

4-2 Colts Builds: Ravens-heavy lineup builds will lead the way in terms of popularity, alongside balanced 3-3 builds right behind those. Constructing lineups with four Colts versus two Ravens would be one contrarian angle to take without getting as extreme/risky as going after an all-out 5-1 smash build.

That will wrap us up for the Week 5 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate breakdown linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes/No below!