By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 6 Primetime Preview

Time to gear up for week six, folks! The primetime schedule for this week is quite honestly underwhelming -- perhaps the least appealing set of primetime games up to this point in the season. And yet, while I say that, we’ve been surprised over and over again this season with some ‘ugly duckling’ primetime match-ups that turn out to be incredibly compelling back-and-forth nail biters. Without further ado, let’s dig into these three games and see if we can bink some big bucks in some showdown contests, shall we?

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 5 Primetime Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles | 52.5 O/U

TB: 29.8 implied points | PHI: 22.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Tom Brady (thumb) - Questionable, WR Chris Godwin (knee/ankle) - Questionable, TE Rob Gronkowski (ribs) - Questionable, TE Dallas Goedert (C19) - Questionable

Score Prediction: TB - 31, PHI - 26

Game Notes & Showdown Lineup Construction: We have quite a few notable injuries to monitor leading up to this game. As of now, I would be surprised if Tom Brady sits this game and Chris Godwin seems more probable than doubtful. Gronk is not expected to play once again and Dallas Goedert, who had a positive COVID test on Tuesday, will have to produce two negative tests 24 hours apart in order to be eligible to suit up Thursday night. As of now, I’m going to proceed as if he’ll be out in this game, but keep an eye out on that situation closer to kickoff. Overall, the Eagles check-in as the healthier team, and I like the home underdog’s chances of covering that seven point spread against a banged up Bucs squad. At the same time, a Tom Brady-led team will always have a chance of blowing out whatever team they go up against.

In general, I’ll be targeting even 3-3 builds in showdown along with 4-2 builds (both teams) with a sprinkle of 5-1 Bucs ‘smash’ builds in the off chance of a TB blowout win.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Tom Brady: Nursing that thumb injury, but he should be all systems go by game time. If there are still any Brady doubters who are still calling for his regression, he further quelled those naysayers in week five with a GOAT-Esque 400+ yard, 5 TD performance. Even if he’s not quite 100% with that thumb injury, Brady should find plenty of success against Philly’s defense which ranks 24th in pass DVOA. They’re only allowing 208.8 passing YPG, but QBs have only attempted 31 passes/gm -- Brady has averaged 45 passes/gm in the NFL’s most pass-heavy offense (69.7% pass play%).

QB Jalen Hurts: He’s been one of the more consistent fantasy QBs all season and has produced QB1 numbers in 4-of-5 weeks. Hurts’ 51.2 rushing YPG is obviously a tremendous help to his week-to-week floor and he’ll look to have another solid performance against a Bucs defense that is allowing the 5th most FPPG to opposing QBs.

WR Mike Evans: The Eagles have been extremely stingy against WRs this season, allowing the 29th fewest FP to the position, including the least FP to perimeter WRs (Evans: 63% perimeter routes). They’ve also faced some pretty strong WR groups, overall. With that said, we should still expect the Bucs WRs to be the main source of offensive production given the fact that they run less than any other NFL team and their top tight end is expected to miss another game. Evans has averaged just under 10 targets/gm over the last four weeks.

WR Antonio Brown: AB may not be getting the same target volume he did in the mid-2010s out in Pittsburgh… but he certainly still looks like he’s in his prime even at 33-years-old. He’s averaging a career-high 16.3 yards/catch and is clearly capable of still producing some ceiling game performances.

WR DeVonta Smith: If you roll with an Eagle at the captain, it’s hard to consider anyone besides Hurts. However, DeVonta Smith is seeing a massive 38.4% share of Philly’s total air yards and he’s on the field for just about every play (90.4% snap%). If the Eagles end up playing from behind for much of this game, Smith could be in line for a season-high in targets, receptions, and yards.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Chris Godwin: The only thing keeping Godwin out of the section above is the simple fact that he is banged up. Assuming he suits up, he’ll still be in line for around 8-to-10 targets and he’ll draw the more advantageous WR/CB match-up against slot corner Avonte Maddox. Godwin has run 69% of his routes out of the slot and the Eagles have allowed the 9th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four games.

RB Leonard Fournette: With Ronald Jones II not seeing more than 17% of snaps since week three, it would seem that Fournette has put a stranglehold on the lead RB role for the Bucs. He’ll surrender some passing downs work to the now healthy Gio Bernard, but he’ll likely see around 60-70% of the total snaps and have some touchdown opportunities throughout this game.

TE Zach Ertz: His involvement was already trending up with at least six targets in the last three weeks, including nearly a 30% AirYard% in that span. Now, with Goedert looking iffy to suit up, he should likely be Hurts’ second receiving option behind the rookie Smith. At $3,400, his potential volume (if Goedert sits) makes him an intriguing value captain selection.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Miles Sanders: His overall numbers would look a bit better if it weren’t for the fact that he’s gone without a TD through five games. Sanders is still playing around 65% of snaps but is ceding valuable passing and red zone work to rookie Kenneth Gainwell. The Bucs run defense is also their strength. Most people know this, so look for Sanders to carry lower ownership than most RB1s would possess in the majority of showdown formats.

RB Giovanni Bernard: Gio looked pretty unaffected by the MCL sprain that sidelined him in week four. He’s playing more snaps than RoJo and if the Eagles manage to pull ahead, Gio’s snaps should rise given his pass-catching skillset. Don’t be surprised to see him utilized a decent amount in the red zone as well.

TE Cameron Brate: Neither Brate nor OJ Howard has made a notable impact at the TE position in Gronk’s absence. Brate is the one who is seeing some red zone looks and Philly is prone to giving up decent production to opposing tight ends (9th most FPPG allowed).

K Ryan Succop & Jake Elliot: Kickers are always decent targets when in need of a cheaper FLEX play due to their consistent median projections.

RB Kenneth Gainwell: In a play-from-behind game script, Gainwell would likely see additional snaps as he did in week four against the Chiefs when he garnered eight targets and finished with 20.3 DKFP.

WR Tyler Johnson: Played on 51% of snaps last week and would be a beneficiary of a banged-up Chris Godwin (particularly if he sits). Even just 3-to-5 targets could allow for returned value on his $1,500 showdown salary.

WR Quez Watkins: He’s not seeing a ton of looks but he’s catching over 76% of his targets while fostering a strong 12.6-yard aDOT. At some point, the Eagles will have to notice his efficiency on deeper routes and send him additional looks.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection

*Tom Brady, Mike Evans, DeVonta Smith: Basic Brady + pass-catcher stack while running it back with the opposing alpha receiver.

*Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Antonio Brown: I wouldn’t say the Bucs have a certified alpha receiver, but this is the same basic concept as above -- just flipping the teams around.

*DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, Leonard Fournette: As mentioned in his player highlight above, Smith’s 38.4% air yard share is elite. Eventually, that sort of downfield volume is going to produce some massive fantasy games.

*Zach Ertz, Jalen Hurts, Tom Brady: *If Goedert is out. An Ertz captain build would open up ample salary to fit both QBs along with two additional stud receivers (or Fournette).

5-1 Bucs ‘Smash’ Builds: The Bucs can beat just about any team by 20+ when they’re on their A-game and very few lineups will take a 5-1 approach. It’s worth a sprinkle in GPPs if you’re rolling out 20+ lineups.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) | 42.5 O/U

SEA: 18.8 implied points | PIT: 23.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Russell Wilson (finger) - Out, JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) - Out/IR, RB Najee Harris (cramps?) - Questionable, RB Chris Carson (neck) - Questionable, WR James Washington (groin) - Questionable

Score Prediction: SEA - 17, PIT - 27

Game Notes & Showdown Lineup Construction: Sunday Night Football catches a rare “L” with this match-up. Largely due to key injuries, there just isn’t much intrigue about it. Vegas clearly isn’t expecting much of an offensive performance from either offense in this game, despite both defenses ranking among the bottom half of the NFL in overall DVOA. Once Russell Wilson exited the game last week after rupturing a tendon on the middle finger of his throwing hand, Geno Smith did orchestrate an impressive 10-play, 98-yard touchdown drive versus the Rams. After much criticism of his aging and stiff play, Ben Roethlisberger had a solid, albeit unremarkable week five performance. Still, his 15-for-25 game with 253 yards and two touchdowns (no INTs) against Denver was easily his best-looking game of the season.

If Geno Smith comes out and reminds us why he has never stood out as a consistent NFL starting QB, I could see Pittsburgh’s chances of a blowout win becoming somewhat likely -- thereby making 5-1 Steelers ‘smash’ builds viable. But, for the most part, we’ll be looking at 4-2 Steelers builds being the most favorable approach, followed by even 3-3 builds, and 4-2 Seahawks builds behind that.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Najee Harris: The rookie first-round pick leads all NFL RBs in snaps (239) and snap percentage (92.6%). In terms of snap%, it’s really not even close between Harris and the next closest RB, Alvin Kamara (81.8% snap%). Harris’ already elite involvement in the passing game (7.8 tgt/gm) could see even more of an increase due to the season-ending injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Seattle’s defense has also been awful in general, particularly against opposing RBs. They allow the 3rd most FPPG to the position.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben could produce a similar, and likely even better, performance as last week against Seattle’s defense which ranks 28th in pass DVOA. I wouldn’t view the JuJu injury as a major hit to his fantasy potential.

QB Geno Smith: With few exceptions, QBs garner captain consideration by default. Once again, Geno did look very solid on that 98-yard drive against the Rams last week. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett also represent the best pair of receivers that Smith has ever had at his disposal in his career.

WR DK Metcalf: Even with the downgrade at QB, Metcalf is fully capable of a huge performance. The Steelers have been torn up by opposing WRs (4th most FPPG allowed) and Metcalf will see a plenty of coverage from 2020 UDFA James Pierre, who is being targeted on 26% of routes ran against him. I’d expect Geno Smith to just chuck it in Metcalf’s general direction quite a bit and just let his freakish ability do the rest.

WR Diontae Johnson: Johnson’s two target game last week is going to be a major outlier (still went for 72 yards and a TD). He’ll be a near lock to secure 10+ targets moving forward with JuJu sidelined.

WR Chase Claypool: Claypool has only played 61% of snaps this season but he’s being targeted on 18% of those snaps (leads the team). To state the obvious, Claypool’s snap% should only rise in the wake of the JuJu (76.7% snap%) injury.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Tyler Lockett: A 5/57/0 outing in week five was his best fantasy performance in the last three games. Lockett has always been boom-or-bust throughout his career and now there’s more uncertainty with the QB downgrade. This still remains a solid match-up against a back-peddling Steelers secondary and Lockett’s captain ownership should be much lower than all six of the players mentioned above (perhaps with the exception of Geno Smith).

RB Chris Carson OR Alex Collins (If Chris Carson is out): Even if Carson plays, neither are really attractive fantasy targets. But based on potential volume alone and Seattle probably not preferring to lean heavily on the arm of Geno Smith, if either Carson or Collins is poised to receive 15+ touches, I think some consideration needs to be given to one or the other. It could be a near even split if Carson plays, however, which further muddies the situation.

WR James Washington: As long as Washington’s groin injury doesn’t sideline him for the second week in a row, he’s likely to be on the field in any Steelers three wide receiver set.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Gerald Everett: After landing on the C19 list on Sept 29th and missing week four, Everett could have potentially played in last Thursday’s game but his test results did not come in, in time. He’s since been reinstated and should be set to return on Sunday night. He could be the beneficiary of shorter-to-intermediate targets from Smith.

TE Pat Freiermuth: The rookie TE’s snaps were already trending up in the last couple of weeks and while he isn’t the most likely candidate to benefit from the JuJu, it certainly doesn’t hurt his projected target volume.

K Jason Myers & Chris Boswell: Here’s the obligatory “strong median projection for low single-game DFS salaries.” This game clearly doesn’t carry a high total but perhaps this match-up features plenty of stalled drives in enemy territory (within FG range). You’re likely going to want as much exposure to the six guys listed in the “captain/core flex” category. Rostering one of these kickers will help with that approach.

Pittsburgh D/ST: The Steelers D hasn’t impressed outside of their week one performance against Buffalo. We’ll see if they can take advantage of a Geno Smith-led offense.

WR Penny Hart: If Hart checks in with a sub-$1,000 price tag on showdown salaries, he’s a somewhat intriguing punt play who should see 10-20 snaps and be factored into a few designed plays.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf: Harris likely has the easiest pathway to becoming the optimal captain play in this game. He could reasonably handle 20+ carries and haul in 5+ receptions against an awful Seattle defense. I don’t mind pairing him with a reliable PPR option like Johnson while running it back with Metcalf on the other side.

*Ben Roethlisberger + Two Pass Catchers (which includes Najee): If Big Ben is going to come away as the optimal captain, it’s likely going to entail his highest yardage output of the season and 3+ TDs.

*Chase Claypool, Ben Roethlisberger, Tyler Lockett: If Roethlisberger starts trending in the right direction, Claypool will post some similar performances to his week five 5/130/1 stat line. We’re expecting his snaps to increase and he was already getting a strong target share despite playing only around 60% of snaps.

*Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith, Najee Harris: Here’s an example of a CPT Lockett leverage stack. As mentioned above, I’d expect Lockett’s CPT% to be lower than at least five other players in this game but his ceiling is still comparable to just about anyone else in this match-up.

5-1 Steelers ‘Smash’ Builds (likely include Steelers D/ST at FLEX): I doubt many would be shocked if the Seahawks offense just never really gets much going with a backup QB at the helm in a hostile environment. A 5-1 Steelers build likely only becomes optimal if Seattle doesn’t score more than 13 points, so I would strongly consider having the Pittsburgh D/ST rostered in these contrarian lineups builds.

Buffalo Bills (-6) @ Tennessee Titans | 54 O/U

BUF: 30.0 implied points | TEN: 24.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Julio Jones (hamstring) - Questionable, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (hamstring) - Questionable

Score Prediction: BUF - 34, TEN - 24

Game Notes & Showdown Lineup Construction: Both teams here are coming off major week five 18-point road victories -- though, we can all agree that the Bills dub over the Chiefs was easily the more impressive rout. Winning on the road in the NFL is never easy, no matter the opponent, but I’m really not seeing any real reason the Bills won’t keep rolling here against Tennessee’s porous defense (27th in DVOA). Buffalo is absolutely locked in right now, particularly on the offensive side of the ball where they’re averaging 39 PPG over their last four. Buffalo’s defensive strength also falls towards its run defense, which ranks 1st overall in DVOA. Of course, the behemoth that is Derrick Henry will test their defensive might upfront. But if the Bills slow him down, Ryan Tannehill has not done enough for me to believe he can take over and beat any legitimate defense with his arm. It doesn’t help that his receiving corps has been banged up throughout the season and (as of Wednesday) Julio’s status will once again be in question heading into MNF.

To no surprise, 4-2 Bills builds should be the preferred route to take here, followed by balanced 3-3 builds. 4-2 Titans builds will be the preferred leverage/contrarian approach. Buffalo has a decent pathway to a blowout win here so a sprinkle of 5-1 Bills ‘smash’ builds (if you’re rolling a high number of lineups) makes sense as well.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Josh Allen: Not that you need much incentive to play Josh Allen, but on a Bills team that doesn’t get much production from its RBs, he’s shouldering a significant workload on the ground (37.6 rushing YPG) while averaging 274 YPG through the air. The Titans defense ranks 25th in pass DVOA and 27th in run DVOA.

RB Derrick Henry: As mentioned in the game notes, Buffalo does rank 1st in run DVOA while simultaneously allowing the fewest FPPG to the position. Henry, however, is near match-up proof and no player in fantasy has as much of a guaranteed workload. He didn’t draw any targets last week but, for the most part, he’s seeing more involvement in the passing game than he has in his career.

QB Ryan Tannehill: As stout as the Bills defense has been against the run, they’re nearly as strong against the pass. They’re allowing only 188.4 passing YPG and the least FPPG to QBs. He likely needs his best fantasy performance of the season to come away as the ideal captain selection, but if Henry gets contained in the run game, he may have no other choice than to attempt a season-high in passes. And, as a reminder, he does add some value with his legs as well (26 rushing YPG this season).

WR Stefon Diggs: We are STILL waiting on the Diggs ceiling game. With his 9.4 targets/gm, volume isn’t a major concern for Diggs but the fact is that newcomer Emmanuel Sanders, slot man Cole Beasley, and the emergence of TE Dawson Knox have turned this passing offense into much more than a one-man show like it was for much of last year during Diggs’ dominant year where he accounted for 168 targets, 127 receptions, 1,535 yards, and 8 TDs. Fortunately, he draws a match-up against a Titans defense which has allowed the most FPPG to WRs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders has officially established a significant role in this lethal Bills offense. He now has four TDs through the last three weeks and despite averaging only six targets/gm, it’s clear that Allen looks for the crafty veteran when the Bills are deep in enemy territory. Sanders is also separating himself as the preferred downfield threat, with a team-high 16.0 yard aDOT. As mentioned above with Diggs, this is a Titans secondary that has allowed the most FPPG to opposing WRs so there’s room for multiple Bills WRs to feast on Monday night.

WR AJ Brown: Brown has been one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy this season but a hamstring injury has slowed him down and has caused him to miss the better part of two games. He carries no injury designation into this game but he will be a likely candidate to see shadow coverage from Bills lockdown CB Tre’Davious White, especially if Julio is unable to suit up. He earns a spot here based on talent alone… certainly not through match-up or 2021 in-season production.

WR Julio Jones: If he plays, he likely sees the softer coverage from Levi Wallace. It’s still not a great match-up for an aging receiver coming off of a hamstring injury, but the game script could call for a high volume of passes here.

TE Dawson Knox: He’s currently fantasy football’s TE4 in PPR scoring and has progressively scored more fantasy points in each game this season. It’s a stretch to assume he outdoes his 23.7 DKFP total from last week, but at the very least we know that Knox has become a reliable piece to this offense.

WR Cole Beasley: After a week five dud, expect a bounce-back week for Beasley (90% slot routes) against the Titans, who have given up the 2nd most FPPG to opposing slot WRs.

RB Zack Moss: He’s out-snapped fellow RB Devin Singletary 144 (52%) to 124 (44%) in the last four weeks and has scored 12+ DKFP in all four weeks. Moss has a decent shot at 15 touches which may include some valuable red zone work.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Jeremy McNichols: If the Titans play from behind for most or all of this game, McNichols could see plenty of work as a preferred pass catcher out of the backfield. In Tennessee’s week four loss to the Jets, McNichols plays 40% of snaps and was targeted a whopping 12 times, catching eight for 74 yards. However, that was the week both AJB and Julio sat, which at the very least led to some of that increased target volume.

K Tyler Bass & Randy Bullock: Bass would be the preferred kicking target, given the Bills likelihood of scoring 30+ total points, but Bullock has put up performances of 12 FP and 15 FP on the season as well which would be a strong outcome for the low salary he will inevitably be assigned.

Bills DST: This elite defense has scored 17-to-22 FP in 3-of-5 weeks. If they can rack up 17 FP versus the Chiefs, certainly they have a chance of another high-end double-digit fantasy performance against the Titans (pending stopping Derrick Henry).

WR Marcus Johnson: In Julio’s absence and AJ Brown’s first game after sustaining that hamstring injury, Johnson led all Titans WRs in week five with a 75% snap%. He was primarily utilized in stretching the field and turned his five targets into three catches for 52 yards (17.3 YPC). Another absence from Julio would further secure Johnson’s snaps, but he may have earned a role regardless and should draw less attention from the Bills defense.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Josh Allen, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley: Basic QB captain + two pass-catcher stacks. In this particular stack, we’re paying down off of the more expensive Stefon Diggs in order to save salary for the three remaining FLEX positions.

*Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox: Henry doesn’t necessarily need the best game script to produce but in the off-chance that the Titans pull ahead in this game, Henry will undoubtedly push for 30 touches in an effort to keep the Bills offense off the field. Running it back with a pair of Buffalo pass catchers.

*Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Marcus Johnson: A less sexy Titans QB + Two Receiver stack but if Tannehill comes away as the optimal captain, it’ll mean he posted his best fantasy performance of the season and at least a couple of his receivers end the day as optimal plays as well.

*Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Tyler Bass: I never like saying a player is “due” for a ceiling performance, but five weeks in and Diggs has (barely) cracked 20 DKFP once and has hauled in just a single TD? It would seem some positive regression is due and you cannot ask for a better match-up.

*Cole Beasley, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry: Once showdown salaries are released for this game, I doubt Beasley will be cheap but he should he should be a cheap enough captain to allow you to fit two or three studs in at FLEX. Beasley is coming off of two poor games against the Texans and Chiefs, but both of those defenses have been surprisingly decent against the slot. As mentioned above, the Titans have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs and Beasley would almost certainly carry low CPT ownership. He has multiple 13 target games this season. He just hasn’t found the endzone yet.

That will wrap us up for the Week 6 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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