By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 3 Primetime Preview

The NFL season gains even more steam as we crack into week three! The primetime schedule for this week is a pretty solid one. The TNF game between the Panthers and Texans isn’t going to break any TV rating records but as we saw last week, sometimes these ugly-looking Thursday games can turn out to be highly entertaining. SNF features one of the more intriguing NFL match-ups in week three between the Packers and 49ers with a close 3.5 point spread. Meanwhile, MNF wraps us up with an NFC East tilt between the Eagles and Cowboys out in Jerry’s World. Let’s get into some DFS showdown plays and strategies for these three match-ups!

Note: The feedback was positive for last week's revamped "Primetime Preview" format so I'll look to keep rolling with it moving forward.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 2 Primetime Games

Carolina Panthers (-8) @ Houston Texans | 43 O/U

CAR: 25.5 implied points | HOU: 17.5 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: QB Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) - Out/IR, WR Nico Collins (shoulder) - Out/IR, WR Danny Amendola (thigh) - Out

Score Prediction: CAR - 27, HOU - 17

Lineup Construction: I’m a fan of how this Panthers defense has been playing through two games and now they’ll get to go after a rookie QB making his first career start on a short week. I don’t imagine this will be a total blowout, but I do see the Panthers covering the spread here as road favorites. 4-2 Panther builds should be the ‘safest’ approach here and is most likely to be the optimal build. Balanced 3-3 builds have their place as well, especially if the home underdog Texans cover that eight-point spread. 4-2 Texans and 5-1 Panthers ‘smash’ builds are viable from a more contrarian GPP standpoint.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Christian McCaffrey: Likely to be 90-95% owned in GPPs with easily the highest captain ownership, despite costing $20,100 as your DraftKings CPT. McCaffrey has scored 27.7 & 24.7 DKFP through the first two weeks and we haven’t seen him come close to a CMC ceiling game yet. Barring injury, CMC will run all over this Texans defense.

QB Sam Darnold: He’s the overall QB12 through two weeks averaging 8.0 YPA. The CAR O-Line is protecting him well and he’s clearly enjoying having all of these versatile weapons at his disposal.

WR DJ Moore: Team leading 19 targets through two weeks (27.5% TGT%). Aside from CMC (15 TGTs, 22% TGT%), no other Panther has more than nine targets. He’s Darnold’s safety valve on intermediate routes and should carry CPT consideration against a Texans secondary that really hasn’t been tested yet after match-ups against Jacksonville (rookie QB, mediocre WRs) and Cleveland (run-first offense & no OBJ in week two).

WR Brandin Cooks: Easily the best player on this Texans offense and the target distribution reflects that. His 21 targets are 15 more than the next closest HOU player and represents a massive 36% TGT%. Cooks’ 303 air yards also account for an absurd 56% of Houston’s total air yards. He’ll be Carolina’s primary focus in the secondary but will also get force-fed the ball.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Davis Mills: Didn’t look great when he was forced to step in for the injured Tyrod Taylor. The game plan will, however, be more catered to Mills this week and he should be in a better situation after getting a couple of practices in with the ones. It won’t be easy against an aggressive and talented young Panthers D, but QBs in single-game contests cannot be completely ignored.

WR Robby Anderson: Only four receptions on nine targets (13% TGT%) but Anderson is clearly the big-play threat down the field. He leads the team with 189 air yards and a 35.5% Air Yard %.

Panthers D/ST: They’ll need a touchdown or two on top of a handful of sacks and a couple of turnovers to end up being the optimal CPT play. Aside from the touchdown(s), the sacks and turnovers should be there and HOU has only a 17.5 implied total. They should fall firmly within FLEX consideration.

K Zane Gonzalez/Joey Slye: As we saw in last week’s TNF game (Graham Gano - 22 FP, Dustin Hopkins - 14 FP), kickers almost always have the best median fantasy point projection out of this salary high-$3k salary range.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Mark Ingram II: Unless Davis Mills gets going early, Ingram is likely going to face plenty of loaded 8-man boxes but it’s hard not to at least be intrigued by the 41 touches he’s handled through two games. If Houston manages to get a lead, Ingram’s early-down role would be more solidified but Carolina’s defense is allowing a league-low 2.7 YPC.

RB David Johnson/Phillip Lindsay: Unlike week one against the Jaguars, HOU played from behind for most of last week against the Browns. Johnson led the RBs with a 43% snap rate, Lindsay 23% snap rate. Both are better receiving backs than Ingram and may see increased work due to game flow and a rookie QB under center.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr: He’s 3rd on the team with an 18% TGT% and has played on more than 50% of snaps each of the first two weeks. His role should continue to grow as the season progresses and more rapport is established with Sam Darnold.

WR Chris Conley: Played 90% of snaps after rookie WR Nico Collins got hurt last week. With Cooks demanding most of the attention from the Panthers secondary, Conley could benefit from softer coverage.

WR Anthony Miller: Should step in as the HOU slot WR in 3WR sets with Amendola ruled out.

TE Dan Arnold: TE Ian Thomas has the snap advantage (62.1% snap%) works as more of a blocking TE while Arnold (39.3% snap%) is utilized more as a receiver. Texans have been torched by opposing TEs through two weeks, allowing 18/177/1 on 21 targets to the position.

RB Chuba Hubbard: Would need a CMC injury or massive early blowout to come into play, but anything is possible.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection

*Christian McCaffrey, Sam Darnold, DJ Moore: Very straightforward Panthers stack with their three primary fantasy scorers. On DK, this will leave you with only an average of $2,700 for your remaining three FLEX slots. A kicker and a couple of punt plays would make sense as remaining fillers. Switching CMC out with Darnold at CPT (while keeping Moore) would open up slightly more breathing room with $3,066 avg. rem/player salary.

*Sam Darnold, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr.: If DJ Moore has a so-so game and Darnold connects with Anderson on a big TD play while peppering TMJ with 5-7 targets over the middle, this may be the optimal core to a 4-2 Panthers stack.

*Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Chris Conley, Joey Slye: If Mills plays an unexpectedly good game, Cooks has a decent chance at being the optimal captain and likely has 100+ yards and a TD or two. If Houston pulls off the upset and somehow scores 28+ points, this stack may be responsible for all Texans points/touchdowns scored. Not overly likely, but not completely crazy.

*DJ Moore, Sam Darnold, Dan Arnold: In this stack scenario, Darnold throws for 300+ yards and three TDs. Moore: 6+ catches, 120+ yards, and a TD. Arnold: 5 catches, 50+ yards, and a TD.

*Christian McCaffrey, Panthers D/ST, Brandin Cooks: Straightforward “gameflow” stack. Panthers lead wire-to-wire, feed CMC his typical 25+ touches, and Cooks sees 12+ targets and 50+% of the total Houston air yards.

Fade Christian McCaffrey: Not for the faint of heart, but fading CMC would instantly make your lineup unique from around 90% of the field, even in GPPs. His salary is high enough to where he may need to score, at minimum, 20 DKFP to even qualify as an optimal FLEX play. I don’t like to predict injuries, especially to an exciting player like CMC, but he did miss some time in the second half last week with muscle cramps. He still saw 29 touches. If the Panthers get up big early or a more serious issue were to come up for CMC (again, not hoping for this), perhaps roll out Chuba Hubbard just in case.

4-2 Texans Stack: I’d expect less than 10% of lineups will deploy a Texans-heavy lineup. Worth a shot if you’re entering more than a few lineups.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | 49.5 O/U

GB: 23.0 implied points | SF: 26.5 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Eli Mitchell (shoulder) - Questionable, RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle) - Out, RB Trey Sermon (concussion) - Questionable,

Score Prediction: GB - 27, SF - 24

Lineup Construction: I kinda like the Packers to pull the slight upset here, but I’m not putting a ton of conviction behind that. Green Bay is going on the road on a short week, after all. Regardless, the Packers posted a nice rebound performance against Detroit on MNF and a blowout seems highly unlikely. The 49ers are trying to challenge the Ravens for “most cursed backfield in 2021” but Kyle Shanahan has had a track record of making things work with ragtag backfields before. For showdown purposes, balanced 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) builds look like the way to go here. No 5-1 blowout builds for me.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Aaron Rodgers: Nice bounce-back performance in week two where Rodgers had nearly as many TDs (four) as incompletions (five). On a day where Aaron Jones dominated, Rodgers didn’t have to do much in the second half against Detroit. But on the few occasions where he threw downfield, he looked like vintage Rodgers aside from a couple of missed connections with deep threat Valdes-Scantling. The 49ers are depleted on the backend, especially after losing top CB Jason Verrett (ACL) for the year. If Jared Goff can pass for 338 yards on this defense, Rodgers should gave no issues doing something similar.

WR Davante Adams: That was a much more Adams-like box score in week two with 8 catches for 121 yards. Still searching for his first TD of the season but that’s likely to happen on Sunday night.

RB Aaron Jones: It was “The Aaron Jones Show” on Monday night with 17 carries, 6 catches, 115 all-purpose yards, and 4 TDs. That’s almost certainly his ceiling game for the season but Jones reminded us what kind of monster he can be in the redzone. He’ll face a much more difficult match-up in week three against the Nick Bosa-led 49ers defensive front.

WR Deebo Samuel: The NFL’s receiving leader (282 yards) through two weeks! Shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander isn’t much of a concern given how much SF moves Deebo around on the field. So far, Samuel has essentially ran a third of his routes evenly on the left perimeter, right perimeter, and out of the slot.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Trey Lance muddles the situation slightly as he waits for his opportunity to get the keys to the offense, but he didn’t play a single snap last week and Garoppolo should be viewed as a standard starting QB for the time being. Jimmy G is completing 70.9% of his passes thru two weeks and even added 20 yards rushing and a TD on the ground against the Eagles.

TE George Kittle: Slow start to the season with only 8 catches on 9 targets with no TDs. But he’s a YAC monster and he’s healthy. The big games will come. Packers defense has allowed 14/105/3 on 18 targets to TEs in the first two weeks (21.3 DKFP/gm).

RB Eli Mitchell: There’s a pretty decent chance Mitchell is able to suit up Sunday night and would likely carry the bulk of the load out of the 49ers backfield.

TE Robert Tonyan: He’s still very TD dependent but is a clear red zone threat for the Packers. SF has allowed 12/129/1 on 16 targets to opposing TEs through two games.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Brandon Aiyuk: It feels odd to put Aiyuk in this section after a great rookie year, but he’s basically been MIA from the offense so far. He did at least draw the start last week and saw a 54% snap rate. Supposedly he is working on getting back to full speed following a preseason hamstring injury. Perhaps week three is when he flashes the upside he showed during his 2020 rookie season.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS dropped the goose egg on MNF but ya can’t blame him too much. Rodgers missed him on a pretty routine one-yard TD throw and overthrew him on a couple of deep shots as well. Still, that’s going to be MVS’ M.O. most weeks. Very boom/bust, but he definitely maintains GPP-winning potential.

RB Trey Sermon: If he passes through concussion protocol, perhaps Sermon will get a legitimate look this week.

RB Trenton Cannon/Jacques Patrick: If one or both of Sermon and Mitchell can’t go, Cannon and/or Patrick may have a very relevant role on Sunday night. Shanahan is no stranger to making no-name RBs fantasy relevant.

K Robbie Gould/Mason Crosby: Solid total here. Either kicker has a chance at 3+ FGA and should check in just under $4,000 once showdown salaries are released for this game.

WR Allen Lazard: The forgotten man in this receiving offense but should play 60-70% of snaps. He was open on a likely 22-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Lions but Rodgers ended up firing a laser to Tonyan between two defenders.

WR Trent Sherfield: 40.8% snap rate and has seen some looks further down the field as well. Should see softer coverage with Samuel, Kittle, and Aiyuk drawing most of the defensive attention.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Deebo Samuel: This feels like a strong core stack should a pass-heavy shootout develop.

*Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers: Same concept as the stack above with the 49ers being the more successful passing attack.

*Aaron Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle: Not expecting four touchdowns again, but Jones could be heavily featured once more as Green Bay looks to pull off the slight upset on the road. Run it back with a 49ers Garoppolo + pass-catcher stack.

*George Kittle, Eli Mitchell, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones: I’ll dub this one “The RedZone Monsters” with Adams being interchangeable with Robert Tonyan in more contrarian lineups. Kittle comes through with a 2021 breakout game with 7 catches, 120+ yards, and a TD. Green Bay has shown an early tendency to be exploitable by opposing TEs.

*Aaron Rodgers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Eli Mitchell (or Trey Sermon): If the 49ers get an early lead, the Packers would need to enter pass-first mode. MVS is always a candidate to be on the receiving end of a 50+ yard Rodgers bomb.

*Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle (fade Deebo Samuel): Most Garoppolo stacks are going to include Samuel. This is just looking to be a bit different in case Samuel gets held in check. Given how banged up the 49ers backfield is, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more pas-heavy approach this week. Up to this point, SF has passed on just 46.3% of plays (3rd lowest).

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4) | 52 O/U

PHI: 24.0 implied points | DAL: 28.0 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: WR Amari Cooper (rib) - Questionable, WR Michael Gallup (calf) - Out/IR, TE Zach Erttz (C19) - Questionable

Score Prediction: PHI - 26, DAL - 34

Lineup Construction: Dallas heads into their 2021 home opener against division rival Philadelphia. This will have the highest implied total of the week three primetime games with a close four-point spread. The Cowboys threw everyone in the DFS world a curveball in week two when they went away from a pass-heavy approach and ended up featuring Zeke Elliot and Tony Pollard in the ground game while Prescott attempted only 27 passes and their defense played surprisingly well. In the two home games in 2020 where Dak was healthy, he threw 47 and 58 passes while Dallas scored 40 and 38 points. It wouldn’t be surprising if they revert back to an air raid attack once again. After an impressive week one performance against Atlanta, the Eagles fell flat against a better 49ers defense but, with the dual threat ability Jalen Hurts provides, they should bounce back and prove to be a dynamic offense once again. In showdowns, I’m looking at even 3-3 builds and 4-2 builds (more in favor for Dallas than Philadelphia.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Dak Prescott: The Eagles defense is allowing only 5.0 YPA through the air but this is easily the best passing attack they’ve faced thus far in the early goings of the 2021 season.

QB Jalen Hurts: Only 12-23 passing for 190 yards last week, but Hurts added ten rush attempts for 82 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Hurts is now averaging 69.3 yards rushing with four TDs in his last six NFL starts. He is essentially “Lamar Jackson Lite” and should almost always provide a nice floor + upside combination. I’m also not sold on the Cowboys defense being improved simply because they held the Chargers in check last week.

WR CeeDee Lamb: On a day where Cooper struggled (5 tgt, 3 rec, 24 yards), Lamb was on the receiving end on nine of Prescott’s 27 pass attempts in week two, catching eight for 81 yards. We need a few more weeks to see if there is a “changing of the guard” in terms of who is the WR1 on this Dallas offense, but Lamb definitely feels like the safer option with Cooper nursing a rib injury. If Cooper sits, Lamb may push for 95% ownership on this showdown slate.

WR Amari Cooper: I would not come close to hitting the panic button on Cooper yet. If he is healthy enough to play on Monday night, he’s firmly within the captain discussion and will probably be lower-owned in that spot considering his week two dud.

RB Ezekiel Elliot: While Tony Pollard had the better fantasy day, Elliot still out-snapped him 44-21 in week two and received 18 touches of his own. I wouldn’t consider Zeke a slam dunk play these days but he always has a chance to score multiple touchdowns and handle 15-20 touches. His role in the passing game would increase if WR Amari Cooper is unable to suit up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Miles Sanders: Hurts does take away from Sanders’ rushing/TD upside and backup rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell (34.1% snap%) is carving out a legitimate role. But Sanders should handle 15-20 touches against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 4.5 YPC and has been vulnerable to pass catching RBs (18 receptions for 107 yards to RBs through two weeks).

WR Jalen Reagor: Reagor should draw the more favorable coverage from Anthony Brown (2nd most FP allowed to WRs this season) while DeVonta Smith is a candidate to be shadowed on the majority of his routes by Trevon Diggs -- who held Mike Evans (Wk1) and Keenan Allen (Wk2) in check when he was in coverage against them. I may be tempted to fade Smith on this slate.

RB Tony Pollard: He looked explosive in week two (better than Zeke), surpassing 100 yards on the ground on just 13 carries (8.4 YPC) and added 31 additional yards while catching 3-of-3 targets. The snaps and touches won’t surpass Zeke’s but we could start seeing this Cowboys backfield favor a two-back committee. However, if this is one of those games where Dak throws 50+ times, there won’t be enough volume to go around to support both backs.

TE Dallas Goedert: Even though Zach Ertz has commanded four targets to Goedert’s seven, he still has accounted for a 60.5% snap rate to Goedert’s 69.8%. If Ertz doesn’t clear the COVID-19 list by Monday night, Goedert should reasonably push for a 90+% snap rate and the Cowboys have been torched by opposing TEs for 13/127/2 on 15 targets.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Greg Zuerlein/Jake Elliot: Once again, kickers are always in play as FLEX options given their low salary and median expected fantasy point projections. This game also provides a solid scoring environment in general.

RB Kenneth Gainwell: 21 touches through two weeks on a 34.1% snap rate with some involvement in the red zone. If he’s under $5,000 once the showdown DFS salaries are released for this game, I like him as a contrarian FLEX play.

WR Quez Watkins: As we saw last week, Quez is more reliant on a big play but he’s been on the field for just under 50% of snaps. He has been running 71% of his routes from the slot where the Dallas defense is vulnerable.

WR Cedrick Wilson: He becomes a much more obvious play if Cooper sits, but in the first full game without Michael Gallup, Wilson played 58% of snaps. He only saw two targets but Dak is also going to throw it more than 27 times most weeks.

TE Dalton Schultz/Blake Jarwin: Both of these guys kinda cannibalize each other but one is likely to find the endzone sooner or later. Schultz has the snap count edge (69.9%) over Jarwin (52.7%), so he gets the slight edge simply due to spending more time on the field.

WR Greg Ward: He’s yet to record a target this season but Ward did see his snap share go from 23% in week one to 36% in week two. He has some rapport with Hurts from the end of the 2020 season and he could benefit from softer coverage with Trevon Diggs shadow coverage likely to go towards DeVonta Smith.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor: A fairly safe stack working under the assumption that a shootout develops.

*Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Ezekiel Elliot: Given his rushing upside, Hurts won’t need to pass for 300+ yards to end the day as the optimal captain. As noted above, I am higher on Reagor than DeVonta Smith as far as Eagles pass catchers go in this game due to Trevon Diggs shadow coverage likely to head Smith’s way.

*CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Dallas Goedert: If both Amari Cooper (ribs) and Zach Ertz (C19) are out in this game, this stack features the two guys that benefit the most from those absences. Lamb is a great captain target regardless of Cooper’s availability.

*Miles Sanders, Amari Cooper (if available), Dak Prescott: This would be a contrarian stack as Sanders would likely need the Eagles to be leading much of this game to receive a heavy ‘captain-worthy’ workload. Meanwhile, after the dud in week two, the majority will target Lamb over Cooper when stacking with Dak.

*Tony Pollard, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor: Again, I was REALLY impressed by Pollard last week and wouldn’t be shocked if he pushes for 15 touches again. Running it back with a Jalen+Jalen stack.

*Ezekiel Elliot, Greg Zuerlein, Miles Sanders: If the gameflow here mirrors that DAL/LAC game that everyone (myself included) thought was going to be a shootout, both lead RBs could come away as optimal plays, one being the captain.

4-2 Eagles Stack: Philly has the less sexy offense with fewer established weapons, so rostering four Eagles in a come-from-behind road underdog game script would be a decent leverage approach.

That will wrap us up for the Week 3 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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