Primetime Preview | Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategies

September 09, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Welcome to the LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we’ll be getting a look ahead at the week’s primetime games with a focus on the single game slates. On top of single game strategies and tips, you’ll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you’ll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s highlighted, as those are always the more straightforward players to roster.

On DraftKings, your “captain” selection is going to result in that player’s salary to multiply by a factor of 1.5x but they will also score 1.5x fantasy points. On FanDuel, there is no increased salary adjustment for the “MVP” roster position, however that player will still score 1.5x fantasy points. Due to the differences in how DraftKings and FanDuel format their single game NFL rules, this newsletter leans more towards a DraftKings focus but FanDuel players may still gain some helpful information from these Primetime Previews as well.

Many believe that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL showdown lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single game showdown lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially in GPPs. In DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain play. Quarterbacks are often times the highest owned captain selections but end up being the optimal play less than 20% of the time. QBs who add value with their rushing ability are more viable as captain selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common *optimal* captain selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers -- in that order.

1b) ‘Stacking’ Your Captain Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain. If you have a WR at captain, you almost always want to pair that player with his quarterback. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain, you are sort of predicting that more than one of his receivers are going to have a productive day, and no single receiver will be outscoring him, so stack two or three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested defense) so you could choose to take that route. RBs who are good receivers are also stack-able with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which may be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, then consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps in your captain slot) while trying to find the skill position players who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider building a 5-1 lineup -- meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that manages to have a decent box score. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by about 10 points or less).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premium guy at the position like Travis Kelce or George Kittle. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have maybe been rising in recent weeks or perhaps somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

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