A tightly contested SNF match-up could be heading our way! Jimmy Garoppolo is back at the helm for the 49ers and will walk into Denver to face Russell Wilson & Co. as slight road favorites.

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (+1.5) | 45 O/U

SF: 23.3 Implied Points | DEN: 21.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Jerry Jeudy (questionable, expected to play), QB Trey Lance (IR), WR KJ Hamler (questionable, expected to play), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR), RB Tyrion Davis-Price (OUT)

Score Prediction: SF - 27, DEN - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 49ers, 4-2 Broncos

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Courtland Sutton: Broncos WRs Jerry Jeudy (ribs) and KJ Hamler (knee/hip) are a bit banged up, though both are expected to play. If Jeudy is not 100%, it could lead to a couple of extra looks for Sutton. Sutton’s role is pretty well-established regardless and he is coming off of a strong week two where he posted a 7-122-0 receiving line on 11 targets. He owns a solid 26.1% TGT% through two weeks and, more importantly, Sutton has garnered a massive 47% share of Denver’s overall air yards. The 49ers do check in at 7th in pass DVOA but Sutton should see decent volume regardless, which will include some deep shots from Russell Wilson. One big play connection and Sutton is immediately well on his way to a huge night in Denver.

QB Russell Wilson: He hasn’t looked polished through two weeks but Wilson is the best QB in this game so that auto-qualifies him as a worthy CPTN target. While the 49ers have allowed the third-fewest FPPG to QBs, they’ve also only faced Justin Fields (in a bad weather game) and Geno Smith. This Broncos offense has managed just 16 points in each game this season but, even though I don’t view them as a top 10 offense, they do possess the weapons to move the ball well and put up some points. Wilson projects to have the highest median floor tonight and it just feels like he is due for a vintage Russell Wilson performance.

WR Deebo Samuel: With Jimmy Garoppolo now back as the 49ers starting QB, this offense will look much more like the 2021 version of itself. That’s a good thing for Deebo’s fantasy upside as he routinely netted 25-30 DKFP with Jimmy G at the helm. Samuel will continue to mix in some carries out of the backfield and should command 8-12 targets. It’s not the easiest match-up against the Broncos, who rank 6th in pass DVOA, but Samuel is the Swiss Army knife in this offense. Targets/carries will be forced in his direction one way or another.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Javonte Williams: Melvin Gordon III is still going to take around 35-40% of the snaps at RB, but Williams is clearly the more dynamic option out of the backfield. He’s averaging 5.4 YPC and has a 23.2% TGT%, which is a huge percentage for an RB. Williams’ 12-target week one game dramatically inflates his TGT% but if the 49ers secondary holds steady against the Broncos WRs and TEs, then Williams could show up big in the passing game once again while handling 12-15 carries as well. Williams has also tallied seven redzone opportunities to Gordon’s four.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: The 49ers routinely have one of the most unpredictable backfields in any given week. With Elijah Mitchell riding on the IR, Wilson is the de facto RB1. He played just 37 snaps last week (47% snap%) but he garnered 20 total touches (18 car, 2 rec) and was reasonably effective (4.7 YPC, 9.5 yards/catch). He’s in line for solid volume once again tonight and he has had seven redzone opportunities this season.

WR Brandon Aiyuk: Like all 49ers pass catchers, Aiyuk also stands to benefit from Garoppolo returning to his starting QB role. Aiyuk led the 49ers in air yards last season and trailed Deebo Samuel by just 242 yards receiving, 21 targets, and had seven fewer catches. He won’t have the same floor as Deebo, but Aiyuk does have similar 20+ DKFP upside.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Brandon McManus: McManus has returned a double-digit fantasy score in both games this season and kickers always get a little extra bump in the thin Denver air which allows for more makeable 50+ yard FGs. Denver’s offense is also good enough to sustain drives but the 49ers defense is good enough to “bend but not break” and halt drives that would fall in McManus’ effective FG range.

RB Kyle Juszczyk: This is a total lotto ticket but Juszczyk was on the field for 51% of offensive snaps last week and he plunged into the endzone on his lone carry that came at the goal line. Strange things always seem to happen in these primetime games and it’s not an unrealistic stretch to assume that Juszczyk will operate as the 49ers’ goal line back. At only $1,400, a one-yard TD and maybe a catch or two would return ample value while allowing you to fit a few studs into the same lineup as well.

WR KJ Hamler: As long as he is active, Hamler should see quite a few snaps in this game. Hamler played 61% of snaps in week one but was held out of last week’s game with knee/hip injuries. Reportedly, he expects to play tonight. Hamler’s lone target in week one had a 32-yard depth of target. He ran 44% of his routes from the right perimeter and the 49ers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to receivers on the right side of the field. With Sutton and Jeudy commanding most of the defensive attention, Hamler may run against more favorable coverages and will just need one or two big plays to pay off his relatively modest $5,000 showdown salary.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Deebo Samuel

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Deebo Samuel, RB Javonte Williams, K Brandon McManus: This stack somewhat insinuates that the Broncos play with the lead for much of this game while the 49ers play a bit of catch-up while force-feeding Deebo targets along with a few carries.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Russell Wilson, RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Same concept as above, just flipping the game script in the opposite direction (assuming the 49ers mostly play with the lead).

*QB Russell Wilson, WR Courtland Sutton, WR KJ Hamler: Standard CPTN Wilson double-stack.

*QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle (Fade Deebo): With Kittle set to make his 2022 debut, Garoppolo has the better overall receiving weapons at his disposal. It’s not the best spot for a Garoppolo ceiling game but rolling a CPTN Jimmy G double-stack while fading Deebo would make for a fairly unique lineup build that provides strong upside.

*RB Javonte Williams, K Brandon McManus, QB Russell Wilson: The “Broncos dominate start to finish” game stack. They are slight underdogs at home but home underdogs run away with games fairly often in the NFL.

*RB Jeff Wilson Jr., 49ers D/ST, WR Deebo Samuel: And, on the other side of the coin, this would be the “49ers dominate start to finish” stack.

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That will wrap us up with the TNF edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!