Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Ravens | LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview 📺

A high-profile AFC North clash makes its way into the Sunday primetime spotlight. With so many studs on the field in this game, we'll dig into the best players and strategies to consider for your DFS lineups tonight!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3) | 47.5 O/U

CIN: 22.3 Implied Points | BAL: 25.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Tee Higgins (Questionable, expected to play), WR Rashod Bateman (OUT), RB Justice Hill (OUT), TE Hayden Hurst (Questionable, expected to play)

Score Prediction: CIN - 24, BAL - 30

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 4-2 Bengals

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Lamar Jackson: In a match-up with no shortage of captain-worthy players, Lamar Jackson might just be in a tier of his own. On top of what he provides as a passer (223.3 YPG, 65.0% comp%, 11:4 TD:INT ratio), he’s essentially an RB1 as well. Jackson has racked up 299 rushing yards in his last three games with a pair of additional touchdowns. He’s averaging 8.5 YPC and leads all NFL players with 6.9 yards before contact. The Bengals rank 7th in overall DVOA but in a game that should stay close with some shootout potential, another big dual-threat performance could be in order.

QB Joe Burrow: The Ravens’ banged-up secondary has been a major weakness that has led to opposing QBs averaging 328.0 YPG and 2.0 pass TDs/gm. The Ravens' defense has only applied pressure on 18.9% of QB dropbacks this season, the 6th lowest Prss% in the NFL. They’re also allowing an offensive score on 40% of drives, the 10th-highest score% in the NFL. Joe Burrow has a top-tier group of pass catchers at his disposal, but the main concern is always around how well his O-Line will hold up to give him time to find one of those receivers. This is a match-up where Burrow should routinely have a clean pocket to step into and sling it to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, or one of the other Bengals playmakers.

TE Mark Andrews: With Rashod Bateman (19.5% TGT%) sidelined in this game with a foot injury, Mark Andrews’ status as the top Ravens receiving target should be further cemented. He already owns a 31.9% TGT% (9.0 TGT/gm), which is elite territory even for an alpha WR, let alone a TE. Andrews’ major upside comes in the redzone where he has a monster 38.9% RZ TGT% and an 85.7% catch%. He’ll draw a plus match-up with Logan Wilson and carries the most multi-touchdown upside out of any player in this game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has slate-breaking upside, and I wouldn’t talk anyone out of rolling him as a captain. However, due to his lofty salary, I am leaning more toward utilizing him as a high-floor FLEX play. He owns a team-high 26.8% TGT% and lays claim to a 36.3% share of the Bengals’ overall air yards. The Ravens' secondary has been getting cooked by opposing WRs and they have allowed the most FPPG to the position through four weeks.

RB JK Dobbins: Dobbins handled a 50% snap% in week four where he took 17 total touches for 63 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one on the ground, one through the air. While it wasn’t an efficient game, yardage-wise, it was still a performance that earned him 22.3 DKFP. Now that backup RB Justice Hill (36% snap% in Wk4) has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, Dobbins could step into a more secure featured back workload. Other Ravens RBs Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake are likely to see some snaps as well, but Dobbins is far and away the most talented RB of that group. Depending on the game flow, a 20-touch game isn’t out of the question for Dobbins.

WR Devin Duvernay: Sans Rashod Bateman, Duvernay may operate as the de facto WR1 for the Ravens. Mark Andrews will presumably see the most targets, but Duvernay could go from his usual 3-to-5 targets/gm to commanding around 6-to-8 targets tonight. And, what is most impressive about Duvernay’s season: he’s catching nearly everything thrown his way with a 92.3% catch%. That’s one surefire way to garner confidence from your QB.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Justin Tucker OR K Evan McPherson: Two of the best kickers in the game are featured in this AFC North showdown. Both guys could likely see multiple FG opportunities and kicking conditions are perfectly fine with winds maxing out at 5 mph in Baltimore tonight.

WR Demarcus Robinson: Again, the absence of Rashod Bateman will trickle down to other Ravens receivers. Robinson is third among Ravens WRs with a 44.5% snap% this season, and he will be on the field for most, if not all, two-plus WR sets this evening. While he has not been a central piece on a run-first offense, the added opportunities from simply being on the field will put him in play at his basement-level showdown salary. Robinson has a fairly low 8.6-yard aDOT on his 10 targets this season so Lamar Jackson has primarily been looking in his direction on shorter routes that have a higher success rate. Robinson is also expected to run most of his routes against CB Chidobe Awuzie, who has been the most targeted CB in the Bengals' secondary.

WR Tyler Boyd: As bad as the Ravens defense has been against the pass, they don’t allow a massive amount of production on the ground -- specifically to RBs (84.3 YPG). While RB Joe Mixon will still get his heavy volume dosage, it’s possible that, if Mixon struggles, the Bengals could use slot man Tyler Boyd as an extension of the run game on short-to-intermediate passes. It also helps Boyd’s case that the Ravens have allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs this season (Boyd: 86% routes ran in the slot).

TE Isaiah Likely: It wouldn’t be a showdown slate without a backup tight end making an appearance. Likely is nothing more than a GPP lottery ticket, but the rookie tight end is a versatile weapon in the mold of a WR/TE hybrid. He can make some plays after the catch and should be in on around 40-50% of snaps tonight.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

TE Mark Andrews

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, WR Demarcus Robinson: I don’t believe you necessarily have to double-stack multiple Ravens receivers with CPTN Jackson since he could just end up doing a ton of damage with his legs. It will be hard *not* to at least stack Mark Andrews with him as a correlation play.

*QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins: Obvious CPTN Burrow double stack here. The Ravens have given up the most FPPG to WRs and I don’t see them slowing down this talented Bengals WR corps. If Burrow distributes the ball fairly evenly, he’ll have an easy pathway to ending the game as the optimal CPTN while multiple Bengals WRs register as optimal FLEX plays.

*TE Mark Andrews, QB Lamar Jackson, K Justin Tucker: The Ravens' offensive success is so heavily reliant on Andrews through the air (especially in the redzone) and Lamar Jackson on the ground. This three-man Ravens stack could realistically soak up all offensive points scored by the Ravens tonight.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Joe Burrow, RB JK Dobbins: Chase can also break open the slate if he ends up commanding double-digit targets, as we saw him do in week one and across multiple huge games last season. Chase had 10 targets in both games against the Ravens in 2021 -- in those two games, he combined for 15 catches, 326 yards, and a touchdown! We’ll run this stack back with JK Dobbins on the other side.

*RB JK Dobbins, QB Joe Burrow, WR Tyler Boyd (Fade Lamar Jackson): If Dobbins has a big day and ends up as the optimal captain, that likely means he punched in multiple rushing scores while Lamar Jackson’s fantasy impact on the ground was largely suppressed. Jackson is going to be upwards of 80% owned in GPPs so fading him and banking on a big day from the Ravens' primary RB could be one way to be contrarian. Run it back with a Burrow + WR stack in the FLEX.

PrizePicks SNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Sunday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

J.K. Dobbins OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Joe Burrow OVER 270.5 Passing Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!