Time to gear up for a primetime AFC West showdown! Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to meet Justin Herbert and the Chargers in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair! Let's get into some DFS plays, stack strategies, and props to consider for this exciting Sunday Night Football match-up!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers | 52 O/U

KC: 28.8 Implied Points | LAC: 23.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Mike Williams - Questionable (expected to play), WR Keenan Allen - Questionable (expected to play but could be limited), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - OUT, WR Mecole Hardman - IR/OUT, TE Gerald Everett - Questionable, K Dustin Hopkins - Doubtful

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 31, Chargers - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chiefs, 4-2 Chargers

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Chargers Defense / Chiefs Offense

Chiefs Defense / Chargers Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Patrick Mahomes: As per usual, Mahomes is the safest captain option on the board. He has been particularly “Mahomes-esque” as of late with four gun-slinging 30+ DKFP performances in his last five games, and he is adding some valuable rushing yardage as well. He will be without a couple of his more reliable WRs (JuJu & Hardman). However, he’s always got his trusty tight end Travis Kelce to rely upon and the acquisition of Kadarius Toney is already paying dividends. This game features a likely high-scoring atmosphere inside a domed stadium. The last time Mahomes visited SoFi Stadium, he racked up 410 yards passing and three TDs.

TE Travis Kelce: With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman both being sidelined tonight, nearly a 30% target share will need to be distributed elsewhere. Kelce already owns a team-leading 23.9% TGT% but he could quite easily eclipse a 12+ target workload tonight. The Mahomes to Kelce connection seems to strengthen even more when these guys suit up for a primetime game. And, similar to Mahomes, Kelce absolutely lit it up the last time he stepped foot in SoFi Stadium where he brought down 10-of-13 targets for 191 yards and two touchdowns.

QB Justin Herbert: The cavalry has finally arrived for Justin Herbert. He has hardly played with his full arsenal of weapons all season but he will get Mike Williams back following a two-game absence and Keenan Allen returns after essentially not playing since week one. Herbert threw for 324 yards and three scores against the Chiefs back in week two, which netted 27.46 DKFP -- his highest fantasy point total of the season. The Chiefs are highly exploitable on defense and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs. We can assume that the Chargers will keep their foot on the gas all night as they look to go toe-to-toe with a prolific Kansas City offense.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Austin Ekeler: I doubt we’ll see Ekeler command 10+ targets tonight since the Chargers get their top two receivers back in the mix. That limits his ceiling a bit and, due to his high salary, he should likely be relegated to a preferred FLEX play rather than a top captain candidate. He still owns legitimate multi-touchdown upside and he can be an absolute menace in the redzone. The Chiefs are also allowing 7.4 receptions/gm to RBs which lines up nicely with Ekeler’s pass-catching prowess.

WR Mike Williams: Following his two-game injury hiatus (with a week eight bye in between), Williams returns to action tonight and, reportedly, will handle a normal workload. Justin Herbert averaged just 220.5 YPG without Williams available so his return will be a welcomed one. Williams leads the regular Chargers starters with an 11.8-yard aDOT this season so he is viewed as the big play threat when he’s on the field. He carved the Chiefs up for eight catches on 11 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown in week two and has averaged 8.6 targets/gm this season. He’ll stand out as a great FLEX play with optimal captain upside.

WR Kadarius Toney: Toney’s familiarity with the Chiefs’ complicated offensive playbook continues to ramp up with every passing week. He should retain a clearly defined role in this offense moving forward, especially while Kansas City is banged up at WR. Despite playing only 44% of snaps last week, Toney was quite heavily involved. He reeled in 4-of-5 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown while adding two carries for 33 yards. Toney’s ‘quick twitch’ athleticism makes him a dangerous and ideal weapon for Andy Reid’s versatile offensive scheme, and he’ll bring plenty of fantasy potential to DFS lineups tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Isiah Pacheco: Trying to predict the Chiefs' backfield rotation and usage is an exercise in futility. For the time being, it seems Pacheco has supplanted Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the early down back. Jerick McKinnon will operate as the preferred receiving back but Pacheco handled 16-of-17 Chiefs RB carries on a 56% snap% in week 10, while CEH went without a touch on just a 6% snap%. The Chargers are awful against the run, ranking 29th in rush DVOA and allowing the 2nd most FPPG to RBs.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS will be on the field for nearly every offensive snap. The simple fact that he shares the field with Patrick Mahomes on so many plays is enough to consider him for DFS lineups tonight. He led all Chiefs WRs with an 84% snap% last week and brought in 3-of-4 targets for 60 yards and a TD. Since week three, MVS owns a team-high 14.0-yard aDOT so, while his raw target numbers may not be high, he is the go-to deep threat in this high-flying Chiefs offense.

TE Tre’ McKitty: This play becomes very appealing if TE Gerald Everett (groin/questionable) is ruled out. Otherwise, nothing more than a cheap flier. After Everett exited last week’s game in the second quarter, McKitty went on to play 75% of snaps and was targeted six times.

WR Justin Watson / WR Skyy Moore: Both of these Chiefs WRs will see a meaningful amount of snaps tonight given the injuries to JuJu and Hardman. Watson played 73% of snaps last week while Moore played 25%. Neither guy made a huge impact in that game but they’ll remain viable lottery tickets who won’t need major production to return value at their basement-level single-game DFS salaries.

Sunday Night Football TD Call 🏈

TE Travis Kelce

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Kadarius Toney: Standard CPTN Mahomes double stack! I would auto-lock Kelce in any lineup that has Mahomes, whether it be in the FLEX or at CPTN. The direct correlation between those two is simply too strong -- if one ends up as an optimal play, the other likely will as well. You can get creative with the second Chiefs receiver, or roll out a CPTN Mahomes triple-stack -- a highly viable strategy if this game turns into a shootout.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Mike Williams: Again, we want to attach Kelce and Mahomes at the hip for correlation purposes. Run this CPTN Kelce lineup back with Mike Williams on the other side.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams, WR Joshua Palmer: Standard CPTN Herbert double stack. The likelihood of Keenan Allen being on a pitch count muddies the Chargers' WR situation quite a bit. Williams can be trusted since he’s expected to play his normal allotment of snaps and, while he wasn’t discussed yet in this newsletter, I do believe Joshua Palmer still plays plenty of snaps and has a key receiving role tonight.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Justin Watson: As discussed above, Ekeler’s receiving upside takes a hit tonight but the Chiefs' defense does funnel a ton of passes to opposing RBs. Since Ekeler is still going to be extremely expensive as a CPTN option, we’ll probably want to throw in one of those Chiefs WR fliers like Justin Watson to free up some salary.

*WR Mike Williams, QB Justin Herbert, RB Isiah Pacheco: Mike Williams may be my favorite contrarian captain candidate in this game. The Chargers have been starved for big receiving plays without him the last couple of weeks and he has posted at least 21.6 DKFP in four of his last six games. We’ll stack him with Herbert in the FLEX and run it back with Pacheco on the other side.

*WR Kadarius Toney, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce: You never truly know what Andy Reid’s game plan is going to be but all of the buzz on Toney has been exceedingly positive and he should continue to see more opportunities as his grasp on the playbook strengthens. After a 44% snap% in week 10, he should be expected to play the majority of offensive snaps tonight. We’ll complete a three-man Chiefs stack with Mahomes and Kelce in the FLEX.

4-2 Chargers-heavy lineup build + fade Mahomes and Kelce in the lineup: Dangerous… very dangerous. But if you want to get extremely different, fading Mahomes and Kelce in the same lineup would separate you from 90+% of the field. The majority of lineups will also either be balanced 3-3 builds or 4-2 Chiefs-heavy builds. So, constructing a 4-2 Chargers-heavy lineup that *doesn’t* feature either Mahomes or Kelce on the Kansas City side is a clear path to having a highly contrarian lineup.

PrizePicks SNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Sunday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Travis Kelce MORE than 18.5 Fantasy Score

Mike Williams MORE than 60.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!