We've got a big-time AFC showdown on tap for tonight with Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins traveling out the L.A. to face Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This game calls for plenty of fireworks given its 55-point over/under -- the highest O/U of any NFL game in week 14!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers | 55 O/U

MIA: 29.0 Implied Points | LAC: 26.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: TE D. Smythe - Questionable

Score Prediction: MIA - 30, LAC - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Dolphins, 4-2 Chargers

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Dolphins Defense / Chargers Offense

Chargers Defense / Dolphins Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Tyreek Hill: We begin with one of the most electric players in the league and the current NFL receptions (96) and receiving yardage (1,379) leader. Tyreek Hill is coming off of another massive week against a stout 49ers defense where he was able to bring in 9-of-14 targets for 146 yards and a tuddy. The Chargers represent a middling match-up for WRs (13th fewest FPPG) but they will be without do-it-all safety Derwin James for the first time this season and top cornerback JC Jackson continues to be sidelined due to a knee injury. So, it’s not a match-up to fear and Tyreek represents about as high of a floor + ceiling fantasy option as there is.

QB Tua Tagovailoa: We’ll stick to the Miami side of the ball and slide Tua in as a captain candidate as well. It wasn’t a spectacular performance against San Fran in week 13 but Tua still managed to rack up 295 yards and two TDs on just 18 completions. He’ll also be going from facing one of the better pass rushes in the league (SF: 9th in pressure%) to one of the worst (LAC: 28th in pressure%). Derwin James being out stands to benefit Tagovailoa and the Chargers are also banged up on the D-Line. The Dolphins’ O-Line is healthier this week and this game is also expected to be a shootout given its huge 55-point O/U -- in four high-scoring games this season, Tagovailoa has averaged 31.63 FPPG.

WR Keenan Allen: Even with WR Mike Williams back in the mix tonight, Allen sticks out as a worthy captain candidate. There are plenty of targets to go around in this Chargers offense that ranks 2nd in pass play percentage (66.5%) and 2nd in offensive tempo. Since returning from injury in week 11, Allen has improved his fantasy output in each consecutive game and is coming off of a big 14-target week where he posted a 6-88-1 receiving line. Miami has also allowed the 12th most FPPG to slot WRs (Allen: 65% slot%) over the last eight weeks.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has been awesome this season and has posted a floor of 13.3 DKFP over his last 11 games. However, a fully healthy Chargers receiving corps does shave off some of his upside, primarily as a receiver (gotta love those 10+ target games), so he’s likely better suited as a high-end FLEX play given his $11,000 showdown salary on DraftKings. With that said, Ekeler’s redzone usage has been elite this season. He owns a 63.2% share of the team's RZ rushes and an incredible 31.3% RZ TGT%, which is the sort of redzone target share that rivals elite WR1s. He works as a great FLEX play and a sharp contrarian captain play if you’re looking to go somewhat against the grain.

QB Justin Herbert: There are so many great spend-up options in this game so we’ll get to some value plays below, but for now we’ll discuss Herbert as a FLEX/leverage CPTN play. As mentioned above with Allen, the Chargers are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL and Herbert has his full complement of receiving weapons healthy and at his disposal. The Dolphins have also been soft against the pass, ranking 23rd in pass DVOA and allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs. And, while rushing the ball is not something Herbert does regularly, it’s definitely in his bag and the Dolphins have given up the 2nd most rushing YPG to QBs on the year.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: This is a fantastic match-up for RBs (LAC: 30th in rush DVOA, 3rd most FPPG to RBs). Unfortunately, the Miami backfield is a bit murky with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert splitting opportunities. According to HC Mike McDaniel, they’re going to roll with a “hot hand” approach with their backfield which does absolutely nothing in the way of helping us clear things up from an expectations standpoint. But if we’re going off of the eye test, Wilson has looked like the better back this season, and the advanced metrics back that up. Wilson does a better job at breaking tackles and creating yards before contact so we’ll count on him to develop the “hot hand” tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Gerald Everett: Everett has been a solid TE option for much of the season and has five games with double-digit fantasy points in 11 starts. He steps into a terrific match-up against Miami, who has surrendered the 3rd most FPPG and the 2nd most receptions to TEs this year.

WR Trent Sherfield: With so much defensive attention shading toward Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it is no surprise that other Dolphins' pass catchers have benefited from time to time. Sherfield has been the primary beneficiary in recent weeks. Within his last three games, he has target/receiving lines of 5-4-63-1 (16.3 DKFP) and 3-1-75-1 (14.5 DKFP). He doesn’t command a high target share whatsoever but he has a strong 11.2-yard aDOT with a 65.8% catch% on the year. We’ll want as many of those high-end weapons in our lineups as we can get but, for value purposes, Sherfield sets up as a solid salary-saving value option.

TE Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has been a fantasy ghost for much of this season but he could receive a boost if TE Durham Smythe (knee/quad - questionable) is inactive for tonight’s game. Smythe has led the Dolphins’ TEs in snap% over the last four weeks, owning a 52% snap% compared to a 42% snap% for Gesicki. A major uptick in snaps would do wonders for Gesicki’s involvement and DFS viability in this game so be sure to monitor the Dolphins' inactives list leading up to kick-off.

K Cameron Dicker / K Jason Sanders: The 55-point total implies plenty of touchdowns tonight so loading up on the skill position players would be the preferred route but both kickers remain in play if some salary relief is needed. No wind/weather issues to worry about inside the domed SoFi Stadium.

WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.: He’ll be nothing more than a minimum-priced lotto ticket but Wilson should be on the field for 20-30% of snaps and has a chance to draw two or three targets. One big gain or a luckbox touchdown would be instant value.

Sunday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: If you’re predicting Miami’s offense will roll in this game, consider a Dolphins onslaught stack such as this one. These three players could provide exposure to any Dolphins TD scored tonight.

*QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Trent Sherfield: Standard CPTN Tua double stack. WR Jaylen Waddle wasn’t highlighted above, but I’m not against rolling with him in CPTN Tua stacks. Sherfield makes his way into this stack in order to open up salary for the three remaining FLEX positions ($6,133 Avg. Rem/Player).

*WR Keenan Allen, QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler: Similar concept as the first stack, just flipping it to the Chargers’ side. If you’re predicting the Chargers’ offense will dominate, or at least keep pace with the Dolphins, this stack could give you exposure to every LAC touchdown scored.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle: If Ekeler ends the evening as the optimal captain, that may indicate that the Chargers played with the lead for most/all of the game so we’ll run it back with a Tua/Waddle stack in the FLEX.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett: Standard CPTN Herbert double-stack.

*RB Jeff Wilson Jr., QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen: Take the concept above and just flip it the other way with Miami leading and funneling more touches to the run game. If you’re looking for a cheaper captain play tonight, Wilson may make the most sense and would allow room for several high-end FLEX plays.

Leave $2,000+ Salary on the Table: This isn’t a stack, necessarily, but rather a reminder that leaving a good chunk of salary on the table is one of the best ways to separate your lineup(s) from the pack in GPPs. Given how many high-caliber skill position players are available in this game, most people will look to max out their lineup salary with as many studs as they can jam in. And yet, the final optimal lineups could easily have $2k+ of dead salary when it’s all said and done. It's not the "comfortable" thing to do, but optimal lineups having a big chuck of dead salary happens all of the time in this single-game DFS format.

PrizePicks SNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Sunday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyreek Hill MORE than 95.5 Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett MORE than 8.0 Fantasy Score

Don't forget about this Justin Herbert "free square" prop that PrizePicks has posted for tonight! You can put up to $20 worth of entries on this promotional pick.

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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!