Fresh off of their bye week, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs step in as heavy favorites of Derrick Henry and the Titans tonight. Will Tennessee make this a game, or are we in for another primetime blowout?

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) | 45.5 O/U

TEN: 16.5 Implied Points | KC: 29.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Ryan Tannehill - Questionable, TE Jody Fortson - OUT

Score Prediction: TEN - 20, KC - 34

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Titans, 5-1 Chiefs

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Titans Defense / Chiefs Offense

Chiefs Defense / Titans Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Patrick Mahomes: The Titans head into week nine as the NFL’s No. 1 run defense which means yards and points are funneled to the passing game. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they’re not a team that is overly reliant on their run game. 71.4% of the Chiefs’ offensive touchdowns and 73.4% of their total offensive yards have come by way of Patrick Mahomes’ arm. As usual, he’s a no-brainer when it comes to a showdown captain play.

RB Derrick Henry: The Titans head into Arrowhead Stadium as major +12.5 underdogs, but they can ill afford to abandon the run game completely, even when trailing by multiple scores. With Ryan Tannehill (ankle) sidelined in week eight, Derrick Henry willed this team to a 17-10 win over Houston. Henry took 32 carries for 219 yards and two TDs. His 33 total touches represented an astronomical 56.9% touch%, which easily led all NFL RBs in week eight. There is some uncertainty around who the Titans QB will be on Sunday night, but we can almost lock Henry into a 25+ touch workload, and this Chiefs defense has rated out near the bottom of the NFL by many key metrics. KC is allowing the 8th most FPPG to RBs and the most receptions/gm to RBs, which isn’t really Henry’s forte, but he does have as many as five catches in a single game this season.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: It took a few weeks, but the Mahomes + JuJu connection feels strongly established after a couple of highly productive games in weeks six and seven. In those two contests, JuJu caught 12-of-13 targets for237 yards and two TDs. The Titans have allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs this season, and the Chiefs have been getting quite creative with JuJu regarding how they roll him out in different packages all over the field. JuJu has aligned around 30% of the time on each boundary, and the remaining 40% of his routes have been out of the slot. He has now clearly emerged as Mahomes’ second-favorite target behind TE Travis Kelce.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

TE Travis Kelce: As always, I would never knock anyone for considering Kelce as a captain selection. He’s been as good as ever this season and only has one game where he has scored below 15.8 DKFP. This has been a bit of an odd year for Kelce when it comes to his touchdowns. He has seven TDs on the season but, you may remember, four of those came in a single game back in week five against the Raiders. But Kelce remains the betting favorite as an any-time touchdown scorer tonight (-143 odds), and he owns a huge 29.4% TGT% inside the redzone.

WR Mecole Hardman: Once you get past the four guys that have already been highlighted above, things get very, very dicey for this game -- especially while we wait on the QB news for the Titans. The Chiefs did trade for former Giants WR Kadarius Toney, who will look to make his Kansas City debut tonight. However, even though the Chiefs are coming out of a bye week, I can’t imagine that Toney has a full grasp on the intricate KC playbook yet and he’s likely only going to appear in specific packages. So, let’s ride a little narrative here and look to Mecole Hardman as a FLEX option. Hardman and Toney share a similar skillset so you have to wonder if Hardman takes it personally that the Chiefs brought Toney in to steal potential touches from him. Either way, Hardman knows the full playbook, and he has been an effective weapon in recent weeks. He came out of nowhere with a three-touchdown performance in week seven where he also led all Chiefs WRs with a 62% snap%.

WR Robert Woods: Man, this feels gross. It’s impossible to trust anyone on this Titans offense outside of Derrick Henry. But, whether it’s Malik Willis or Ryan Tannehill at QB tonight, Woods is the most likely candidate to lead the Titans in targets. If it is Willis starting, I’m sure everyone will be completely put off of any Titans receiver after the rookie QB passed for just 55 yards on 10 attempts last week. However, Willis did complete 28-of-51 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason, and the Titans never really NEEDED to pass last week, given how well the run game was working. Woods only has two double-digit fantasy scores this season, but he was brought in to be a top receiving option, and it’s feasible that he could find success against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: As always, it’s hard to trust any Chiefs receiver not named “Travis Kelce.” Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster becoming somewhat trustworthy, the addition of Kadarius Toney does further muddy the waters. With that said, MVS should still hang onto a prominent role and is coming off of his first 100+ yard game as a Chief in week seven. He should continue to play around 60-70% of snaps and see a handful of targets with likely one or two deep shots mixed in at some point.

K Harrison Butker OR K Randy Bullock: Given how little we can trust most players in this game, both kickers are firmly in play for value. Butker is the safer play, though his $5,000 showdown price tag is lofty for a kicker. If Bullock is going to be significantly lower-owned, I’ll likely favor him in lineups. On top of the $600 savings you get by dropping down from Butker to Bullock, the Titans should be able to move the ball against a bad Chiefs defense, but still may stall out multiple times in field goal range. Winds won't be an issue in KC tonight.

RB Dontrell Hilliard: There usually isn’t much room for opportunity as a backup running back behind Derrick Henry. However, Hilliard is utilized as a pass catcher a fair amount, and the Chiefs have allowed, by far, the most receptions to RBs this season.

RB Isiah Pacheco: The Chiefs are intent on using a three-headed backfield attack consisting of Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon. But, for however much it is worth, Pacheco has moved in as the “starter” at RB. He was also the “starter” in week eight but played just 28% of snaps, though he was efficient with his limited touches (8 carries for 43 yards, 5.4 YPC). The bye week may help further Pacheco’s role out of the backfield. If he had enough carries to qualify for advanced RB stats, his average 2.5 yards after contact would be tied with Derrick Henry for 10th in the NFL. The rookie runs hard and he has game-breaking speed. At $2,400 on DraftKings, he’s worth a flier in this game.

TE Noah Gray: Jody Fortson being out isn’t exactly game-changing injury news, but the Chiefs snap% breakdown this season goes as follows: Kelce - 79.3%, Gray - 48.8%, Fortson - 23.3%. So, Fortson’s absence should easily push Gray over a 50% snap%. That makes him a prime candidate to be “the random backup tight end that scores a touchdown in primetime” tonight. And, for what it’s worth, Noah Gray has recorded some fantasy-relevant stat in every game this season. Not a bad lottery ticket play for $800 on DK.

Sunday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Mecole Hardman

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman: Your run-of-the-mill CPTN Mahomes double stack.

*RB Derrick Henry, K Randy Bullock, QB Patrick Mahomes: This stack may give you exposure to every touchdown scored in this game. And, as discussed above, I’ll slightly favor Bullock over Butker if I’m targeting a kicker tonight due to the cheaper price tag and (presumably) lower ownership.

*WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Robert Woods: JuJu is looking like a strong No. 2 option for Mahomes these days. You have to stack Mahomes with him in the FLEX then we can run it back with a Titans receiver… Robert Woods is about the only semi-trustworthy guy of the bunch.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, RB Derrick Henry, TE Noah Gray: For cash games, I’d look to start with this four-man stack. You’re getting the safest captain play in Mahomes, the other two studs in this game with Kelce and Henry, and the Noah Gray dart throw shouldn’t leave you with a zero and still leaves some nice wiggle room. With $10,000 salary left for the remaining two FLEX players, you could fill out the rest with a combination like Randy Bullock + Mecole Hardman (or MVS).

*WR Mecole Hardman, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Derrick Henry (Fade Travis Kelce): If you roll out any Chiefs receiver at CPTN besides Kelce, I would consider also leaving Kelce out of the FLEX (for that specific lineup). Kelce’s five-figure showdown salary usually means he needs a 20+ DKFP game to land in the optimal lineup. He’s quite capable of that but if a guy like Hardman goes off and ends the night as the optimal captain, then it’s much less likely that Kelce does enough to land in as an optimal FLEX.

*WR Robert Woods, Titans QB (whoever starts), RB Isiah Pacheco: This is just one of those strange “the game did not go how anyone thought it would go” stacks that you throw into a GPP and see if it sticks. It likely won’t but raise your hand if you thought a 5-1 Browns stack was going to be the optimal lineup for the CLE vs. CIN game on Monday night! These primetime games can be wild like that, man.

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Note: Props were limited for this SNF game at the time of this writing -- particularly on the Titans side since the starting QB situation remains unclear. However, I still feel good about these two props below.

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!