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Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles | 48.5 O/U

Chiefs: 25.0 Implied Points | Eagles: 23.5 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries (Excluding IR): None

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced

Super Bowl LIX Preview

Caesars Superdome | New Orleans

Sunday, February 9th | 6:30 pm ET

Watch/Stream: Fox/Tubi (free live stream)

First, let us all shed a collective bittersweet tear for the finality of football season. It’s been another entertaining year and, hopefully, a profitable one for you guys on the DFS and prop betting fronts. As always, thank you for reading these NFL newsletters throughout the season!

The Chiefs are back in what now feels like their annual Super Bowl appearance and are looking to solidify their dynasty status with a historic third straight title. Their path wasn’t smooth sailing, as they battled injuries and close games, with 11 of their 15 wins coming by a single score. Despite losing key offensive players like Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco for stretches, they adapted by leaning on rookie Xavier Worthy, trading for DeAndre Hopkins, and bringing back Kareem Hunt. Even with these challenges, Patrick Mahomes led them to a top-10 finish in offensive success rate and expected points added (EPA) per play.

Kansas City’s defense has been just as crucial to their success, ranking top-10 in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed. Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive scheme, which ranked fifth in pressure percentage, will challenge the Eagles’ offensive line and Jalen Hurts’ poise under duress. Philadelphia’s biggest difference from their last Super Bowl appearance is the addition of Saquon Barkley, who had a Herculean 2,000-yard season with 15 total touchdowns. If the Chiefs can’t contain him, all of their stout run defense metrics will not matter.

The Eagles could struggle in the passing game, as Jalen Hurts has been shaky against the blitz, ranking 20th in yards per attempt under pressure. His ability to scramble will be something to watch, but the Chiefs’ defense has been dominant against quarterbacks all year. On the other side, Philadelphia’s defense, commanded by Vic Fangio, was one of the best in the league, ranking first in total yards and passing yards allowed. However, the Eagles’ best chance to win might come by way of controlling the clock -- they led the NFL in time of possession this season and will need to keep Mahomes off the field to have a shot at the slight upset.

Ultimately, this game could go in either direction but my expectation will be for the Eagles to have more dominance over the pace thanks to the combination of Saquon Barkley’s and Jalen Hurts’ rushing prowess, which could be complemented by a few big strategic play action passes down the field to AJ Brown and/or DeVonta Smith. By no means do I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to go out quietly -- doubting the back-to-back champs would just be far too presumptuous and short-sighted. While both of these defenses are top-tier, the Eagles’ D has been a bit more opportunistic throughout the season, ranking 5th in opposing offensive drives ending in a turnover and 1st in expected points contributed by defense. If there is one massive, pendulum-swinging, game-altering defensive play made in this game, I believe it’ll be the Philly defense that accounts for it.

No matter how it plays out, this should be a tightly contested showdown with plenty of drama. It may not be the Super Bowl match-up that most non-Eagles or non-Chiefs fans were hoping for, but these are arguably the two best teams from this NFL season and they have earned their rightful place in the grand finale!

Score Prediction: Eagles - 24, Chiefs - 22

Super Bowl LIX DFS Cheat Sheet

Click the cheat sheet above for a higher quality direct image link.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Super Bowl LIX Stack Concepts

*[Player Name] represents captain selection.

*RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: There is little convincing needed to point out Barkley’s skill and DFS upside and not having him in your lineup will likely have you reaching for a bottle of Tums. Even though he will be immensely popular, he is the most likely player to explode for a monster fantasy score. Running it back with Mahomes on the other side is sensible from a game script standpoint. However, that is an expensive combination, so we’ll save some dough with a cheap JuJu Smith Schuster, which, of course, also works as a stack piece for Mahomes. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,666.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack featuring his two most trustworthy targets. Other KC pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Mahomes lineups (in order of preference): WR Hollywood Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Samaje Perine, TE Noah Gray, WR Justin Watson. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,000.

*WR Hollywood Brown, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Saquon Barkley: As discussed in the cheat sheet, going for a cheap captain is the only way you’re going to fit in three or four star players comfortably. Hollywood Brown is an aggressive captain choice, but he is getting the snaps in the playoffs and leads the team with an 18.3-yard aDOT in the postseason, so Mahomes is looking for him as a big play threat. We’ll want to lock in Mahomes in the FLEX for correlation purposes and, since we’re saving money at captain, running it back with Saquon is a supremely logical choice. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,633.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, WR AJ Brown (+ Fade Saquon): Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. Most of Hurts’ appeal comes from his rushing/touchdown upside but everyone is aware of this. If it turns out that he has a big day through the air, while also doing plenty of damage on the ground (and potentially scoring all of the Eagles’ rushing TDs), then he is likely going to end up as the optimal captain. I doubt many will be taking the CPTN Hurts double-stack approach, especially if it includes the Saquon fade, so keep this stack in mind for against-the-grain GPP entries. Other PHI pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Hurts lineups (in order of preference): TE Dallas Goedert, WR Jahan Dotson, RB Kenneth Gainwell, WR Johnny Wilson. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $5,800.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Dallas Goedert: There are some rumblings and rumors of Kelce potentially hanging it up and calling it a career after this season, so there is perhaps a “retirement game” narrative to ride. Even if that isn’t the case, Kelce has always shown up in his four previous Super Bowl appearances and the Eagles haven’t exactly held TEs in check lately. Stack with Mahomes and run it back with the affordable Goedert on the other side. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,900.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Kareem Hunt: We can’t place too much weight on it but DeVonta Smith has excelled in three previous career games versus the Chiefs and, as mentioned in the cheat sheet, he gets a strong WR/CB match-up out of the slot versus Chamarri Conner. With so much defensive attention going toward stopping Saquon, and AJ Brown still considered the WR1, Smith could easily end up leading all skill position players in scrimmage yards. Stack with Hurts and work in some game script correlation by rolling Kareem Hunt as the bring-back play. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $7,366.

Best of luck & enjoy the Super Bowl! See you guys next season (or over in the NBA/PGA/MLB chats!)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!