It all comes down to this. The Chiefs versus the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII! Let’s get set for the biggest game of the year with some DFS plays, strategies, and prop bets!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) | 51 O/U

KC: 24.8 Implied Points | PHI: 26.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Mecole Hardman - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 24, Eagles - 28

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Eagles, 4-2 Chiefs

Game Preview:

Another wild NFL season is nearly in the books as we stand just a day away from Super Bowl LVII which is set to kick off on Sunday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. All eyes are on a pair of dynamic quarterbacks who finished first and second in this season’s NFL MVP voting. For MVP winner Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs, this will be their third Super Bowl appearance within the last four seasons. Kansas City won Super Bowl LIV in fairly convincing fashion, defeating the 49ers by a score of 31-20, before stumbling against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers the following season in Super Bowl LV, losing 31-9. For Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles, they will be looking to win the franchise’s second Super Bowl title following their 41-33 victory over the New England Patriots in 2017. It’s fairly safe to say that this match-up features the NFL’s consensus top two teams so we should have a stellar championship game ahead of us. These are two confident teams that boast efficient but contrasting offenses, capable defenses, and both teams head into Sunday’s big game essentially at full strength.

On the Chiefs' side of things, the two weeks between the AFC Championship game and Super Bowl Sunday may end up making all the difference. The ankle injury that Patrick Mahomes sustained three weeks ago in the Divisional Round game against the Jaguars now seems to be a non-issue. Several Kansas City receivers also left the AFC Championship game a bit banged up but, aside from WR Mecole Hardman who has since been placed on injured reserve, the Chiefs will have their full arsenal of weapons available.

The Chiefs and Eagles tied for the NFL lead in scoring offense, both averaging 28.7 PPG. The Chiefs own the edge in total offense, leading the league with 407.9 YPG and ranking 1st in offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Defensively, Kansas City does not stack up as well on paper after ending the season ranked 17th in overall DVOA. Still, they are an aggressive bunch that racked up the second-most sacks in the NFL with 55, and they ranked 5th in applying pressure on 24.9% of QB dropbacks. However, they were not able to take advantage of many turnovers, producing either a fumble recovery or interception on just 10.3% of opponent drives (ranked 21st).

Led by dangerous dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts and a stable of RBs out of the backfield, the Eagles boasted arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL this season, ranking 1st in offensive rush DVOA and leading the NFL with 32 rushing TDs. While they are far from the elite passing offense that their Chiefs opponent is, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles were impressively efficient through the air. Hurts threw for 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions while averaging 12.1 yards per completion… which is the same figure as Patrick Mahomes. Philadelphia owns a topflight receiving duo between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, along with a reliable play-making tight end in Dallas Goedert. Perhaps where the Eagles separate themselves the most would be on the defensive side of the ball, specifically with their pass defense. This Super Bowl features a true strength-on-strength match-up between the Eagles’ number-one-ranked pass defense versus the Chiefs’ number-one-ranked pass offense. The Eagles also racked up an NFL-leading 70 sacks this season while pressuring the QB on 25.5% of dropbacks (ranked 2nd) and forced a turnover on 15.1% of drives (ranked 3rd).

From a game plan standpoint, I believe both teams will act in accordance with what allowed them to make it this far and stay true to what has worked for them all season. The Chiefs will put their faith in their MVP and let Patrick Mahomes pick apart a talented Eagles pass defense. When it comes to offensive play creativity, no one does it better than head coach Andy Reid. Despite lacking any major star power outside of tight end Travis Kelce, Kansas City has its fair share of more under-the-radar weapons like Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. All of these guys have a role to fill and own the benefit of having the league’s best player distributing the ball. Defensively for the Chiefs, it will all be about containing Jalen Hurts and not letting him beat them with his legs. And while it may be the most obvious statement ever, the Chiefs need to keep things close on the scoreboard. Given how well they run the ball, when the Eagles jump out to a lead, it’s extremely difficult for the opposing team to fight back and get ahead.

For the Eagles, they will look to stick to the same recipe that has worked for them all season. Expect Jalen Hurts to be aggressive through the air early on in the game and, if given a lead, they’ll let Hurts and their committee of running backs wear down the Chiefs’ defense and melt the clock on the ground. I also believe that one of either AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith will step up and have a massive Super Bowl performance. Defensively, it will be all about making Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket, keeping his patented ad-lib plays to a minimum, and forcing someone other than Travis Kelce to beat them. The Eagles have the group of defenders to do it, but actually executing a disruptive game plan against Mahomes is always much easier said than done.

As you can tell by my score prediction above, my pick is for the Eagles to win by a narrow margin. If I was forced to give a confidence rating on that, on a scale of 1-to-10, I’d give it a two. I’m not one to bet against Patrick Mahomes but the Eagles simply have the more complete team in this one. Ultimately, I can envision this game coming down to one or two pivotal defensive plays. When it comes down to either team making that big play happen, I trust the Eagles’ defense to get it done more than the Chiefs’.

Whichever way this game goes, we should ultimately end up witnessing a terrific championship game to wrap up an awesome season. Enjoy the game and I wish everyone the best of luck with your DFS and betting ventures! And let me send out a personal “thank you” to everyone who read these NFL newsletters this season. Hopefully, they were of some assistance in some capacity!

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Eagles Defense / Chiefs Offense

Chiefs Defense / Eagles Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Jalen Hurts: No surprise here but, even at his slate-high DFS salary, Jalen Hurts steps in as a premiere captain option. Any time you can roster a QB that can provide value with his legs, you’re gaining exposure to a high-floor, high-ceiling player. Hurts has averaged over ten rush attempts per game, over 50 rushing YPG, and has punched in 15 rushing TDs. The Chiefs also allowed the 5th most rushing YPG to QBs this season and rank mid-pack at 15th in rush DVOA. Of course, it’s not all about what he can do on the ground. Hurts may only throw it about 30 times in this game, which is about his season average in per-game pass attempts, but he has ranked 3rd among NFL QBs this season averaging 8.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt. Also, few teams in the league have a better one-two receiving duo than what the Eagles have in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.

TE Travis Kelce: The floor that Travis Kelce can provide is a major plus on its own but his multi-touchdown potential also keeps him firmly on the captain radar. Kelce has been targeted 26 times in the Chiefs’ two postseason games, which works out to a 31.2% TGT%. He has taken those 26 playoff targets and turned them into 21 catches for 176 yards and three touchdowns. He has brought in at least six receptions in six consecutive games and, regardless of the Eagles’ efforts to contain him, Kelce is locked into a hefty guaranteed target workload. The Eagles do boast the league’s top pass defense but they can be vulnerable against the tight end position. Over their last nine games, they have ranked 23rd in the NFL allowing 51.1 receiving YPG to TEs.

WR DeVonta Smith: Smith had a quiet game in the NFC Championship (3-2-36-0 target/receiving line) but in a game where the 49ers essentially played without a QB, the Eagles were able to coast to a 31-7 victory and never had to get overly aggressive through the air. In the seven games prior to the NFCCG, Smith had posted a floor of at least five receptions, at least 61 yards, and at least 13.7 DKFP. A case can be made for either of the two primary Eagles WRs but when it comes down to it, DeVonta Smith has been the more reliable floor option and has displayed a similar ceiling to AJ Brown. Smith has hauled in 69.9% of his targets this season and it’s a strong match-up against a Chiefs secondary that has allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Isiah Pacheco: Despite numerous big performances down the stretch of the regular season, Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon has yet to do much in this postseason. Instead, rookie Isiah Pacheco has seemingly cemented himself as the preferred ball carrier and he even operated as the primary receiving RB, a role typically reserved for McKinnon, in the AFCCG, catching 5-of-6 targets for 59 yards. Predicting what Andy Reid will do with his running backs has been an exercise in futility for quite some time but it is at least somewhat telling that Pacheco logged a 57% snap% in what was a closely contested AFCCG against the Bengals -- all while Patrick Mahomes was dealing with a banged up ankle injury (hinting at the Chiefs’ trusting Pacheco with a fair amount of pass protection). Another hitch in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl backfield outlook is the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been on the IR since week 12. Things could shake out several different ways here but the softer match-up against the Eagles' defense would be on the ground (PHI: 21st in rush DVOA) as opposed to through the air (PHI: 1st in pass DVOA). At the moment, Pacheco sets up as the RB to target, and, with any sort of touchdown luck, he has a great shot at cracking the optimal.

TE Dallas Goedert: The Chiefs have allowed the 10th fewest receptions (72) to tight ends this season but their nine touchdowns allowed to TEs are tied for the 5th most. As touched on previously, the Eagles weren’t forced to throw much against the 49ers in the NFCCG, but Goedert’s five receptions accounted for a third of Jalen Hurts’ completions. He’s been a reliable receiving weapon in the 14 healthy games he has played this season and Goedert has secured an impressive 79.7% of his targets while averaging 7.6 yards after the catch. The Eagles' tight end will be a strong bet to score a touchdown while racking up a handful of catches and 50-70 yards receiving.

WR Kadarius Toney: It’s a bit of a gamble going with Toney but he does carry some broad FLEX appeal given his presumed “gadget” role in the Chiefs offense. Toney got banged up in the AFCCG which led to an early exit, but he got up to a full practice on Thursday and, per coach Andy Reid, he was “doing everything.” Toney could see touches as both a receiver and a rusher. In the Divisional Round game against the Jaguars, Toney joined Travis Kelce as the only two Chiefs players to record more than two receptions. Health has always been an issue with Toney but he heads into Super Bowl Sunday without an injury designation and carries some exciting potential from a DFS standpoint.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Kenneth Gainwell: The debate can be made that there are simply too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to the Eagles’ ground game. Between Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Jalen Hurts, it’s difficult to decipher which one or two guys will end up having a significant impact. In Gainwell’s case, he heads into Sunday having logged at least 13 touches in each of the Eagles’ two postseason games and he led the Eagles’ RBs with a 41% snap% in the NFCCG and had 17 opportunities (14 rush, 3 tgt) on his 31 snaps. When considering both DFS pricing and expected involvement, Gainwell makes sense if you’re eyeing someone out of this Eagles backfield.

Eagles D/ST: Rolling with a D/ST against Mahomes and the Chiefs is typically a bad idea but it cannot be understated how talented and opportunistic this Eagles defense is. Some unforeseen circumstances helped them out, mostly in the NFCCG, but Philly has surrendered just 14 points in their two playoff games and they’ve scored at least 9.0 FP in seven of their last eight games overall.

TE Noah Gray: Gray may be far behind his fellow tight end, Travis Kelce, in terms of offensive involvement, but he does play a role. Gray is typically on the field for 50-65% of snaps and has logged an offensive touch in every game this season. He’s more of a dart throw but, at $1,200 on DraftKings showdown pricing, Gray is worth a flier in GPP lineups on the off-chance that he brings in a touchdown or a big catch.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: This is a play that could easily produce a goose egg so proceed with caution. Even before his injury in week 11 that has kept him on the IR until this week, CEH was getting phased out of the Chiefs’ backfield rotation and losing touches to both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. That said, this guy was at one point atop the Chiefs’ depth chart this season and he may have some sneaky involvement on Super Bowl Sunday. Regardless, you wouldn’t need too much production in order for CEH to pay off his $1,000 showdown price tag.

Super Bowl LVII TD Call 🏈

QB Jalen Hurts (Rushing)

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPT Hurts double-stack. I have a feeling that AJ Brown will come in at the lowest ownership among the Eagles’ three primary receivers. Feel free to sub him in for Smith or Goedert for a more contrarian build.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Standard CPT Mahomes double-stack.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR AJ Brown: The most popular route that folks will take when it comes to their captain selection will be with one of the two QBs. Travis Kelce brings just as much DFS upside to the captain slot but will carry notably lower CPT ownership. Let’s hope for a multi-touchdown Kelce game, stack him with Mahomes in the FLEX, and run it back with an Eagles’ playmaker like AJ Brown on the other side. It’s a pricey three-man stack, but there is a huge ceiling attached to all three of these players.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Isiah Pacheco: This stack could work out particularly well if the Chiefs manage to hold the lead for much/all of the game. That would force the Eagles to stay aggressive through the air while increasing the likelihood of Pacheco touches.

*TE Dallas Goedert, QB Jalen Hurts, TE Travis Kelce: A double tight end stack isn’t usually a popular approach on single-game slates but we’ll give it a shot here. Of course, Travis Kelce isn’t your typical tight end, and Goedert, while fairly consistent, hasn’t had very many big games this season. That said, Goedert does open up some solid salary relief out of the captain position and I like his chances of finding the end zone on Sunday. This stack boasts a strong floor with just enough upside to make it worthwhile.

*WR Kadarius Toney, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR DeVonta Smith: Toney’s usage will be an interesting development to monitor in this game. When healthy, he offers a versatile skillset but, for DFS purposes, we’ll look for him to make his mark primarily as a receiver. Toney operates mostly out of the slot which is where the Eagles’ top-ranked pass defense can appear vulnerable at times. On the season, the Eagles have surrendered the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs. He’s far from a safe captain play, but certainly an intriguing one. We’ll stack him with Mahomes in the FLEX and run it back with DeVonta Smith on the other side.

PrizePicks Super Bowl LVII Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Super Bowl LVII over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

*Patrick Mahomes MORE than 0.5 Pass Yards

DeVonta Smith MORE than 13.5 Fantasy Score

*The Mahomes "free square" prop is available until 11:59 ET on Saturday (2/11) night. Use it before ya lose it!

Super Bowl LVII Prop Bet YouTube Content

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!