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San Francisco 49ers (-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs | 47.5 O/U

SF: 24.8 Implied Points | KC: 22.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon - Questionable

Score Prediction: 49ers - 27, Chiefs - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 49ers, 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 49ers

Another wild NFL season is nearly in the books as we stand just a day away from Super Bowl LVIII, which is set to kick off on Sunday at 6:30 pm ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV. This will be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV in which the Chiefs emerged victorious over the 49ers by a score of 31-20. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs can establish themselves as a true dynasty by winning a third NFL Championship in the span of five years. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers will have their minds set on redemption, and they’ll head into the biggest game of the year as slight favorites. In the realm of DFS, we’ll have plenty of tournaments posted that boast huge prize pools, and there are several free rolls to take a stab at as well. Here’s to hoping for a great game and one final profitable NFL venture as we bid a bittersweet farewell to the NFL season! Best of luck!

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Christian McCaffrey: Lineups on this Super Bowl showdown slate will live and die by CMC but there’s absolutely no way you can fade him (unless you’re banking on an injury) --- and if you’re playing just one lineup, he should almost certainly be in there somewhere. It’s been business as usual for McCaffrey in these playoffs. CMC received 24 touches and scored two touchdowns in both the divisional round match-up with the Packers and the NFCCG against the Lions, and he has been targeted 17 times this postseason while logging a 95% snap rate. If we dig into DVOA match-ups, CMC and the 49ers’ run game are in the best spot out of any skill position as the Chiefs have ranked 27th in rush DVOA this season. If he can drop 29.2 DKFP on the Lions' run defense, which led the NFL in rush DVOA, I don’t see any reason why he can’t find ample success against Kansas City. And, as we’re all away, he is one of the few “game script independent” RBs in the entire NFL.

WR Deebo Samuel: I’ve said it multiple times throughout the season but, to me, Deebo Samuel is the one skill position player that makes this offense go from “good” to “borderline uncontainable.” That’s nothing against any of their other elite weapons, but there is a pretty direct correlation between Deebo playing well, and the 49ers winning games. If we ignore the meaningless week 18 game in which most key 49ers starters were rested, you’ll notice that three of the 49ers’ other four regular season losses came when Samuel was either out or injured early in the game (week 6-8). The 49ers move their receivers all around in the formation and the Chiefs don’t shadow with their DBs, but Samuel should avoid coverage from top Kansas City CB L’Jarius Sneed for the majority of the game, and he’s always a threat to mix in some touches out of the backfield. If you’re playing the angle that the 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII, then I would be more than willing to load up Deebo as the captain play. If he has a big performance, I believe San Francisco will emerge victorious.

RB Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has found the endzone in all three rounds of these playoffs and seven consecutive games overall. He’s a good bet to handle 20+ touches and it’s hard to imagine him not making it into the optimal lineup, at least as a FLEX play, if he maintains his touchdown streak. The 49ers rank mid-pack (15th) in rush DVOA, and they allowed the 5th most receptions to RBs this season. With Jerick McKinnon ‘iffy’ to play and Clyde Edwards-Helaire largely phased out of the Chiefs’ game plan, Pacheco will have little competition for touches and should be expected to play around 80% of the snaps while handling all goal-line work. Furthermore, he’s the seventh-most expensive player on the DraftKings slate, which frees up a bit more roster flexibility if you’re rolling him out at captain (specifically, in Chiefs-heavy lineup builds).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs had their fair share of bumps in the road this season but thanks to improved defensive play and a more established ground game, they haven’t relied upon the arm of Patrick Mahomes as much in their pathway to defending their Super Bowl LVII title. You have to go all the way back to week seven of the regular season to find a game where Mahomes exceeded 21 DKFP. Despite the lack of high-end fantasy production, Mahomes is still arguably the best QB in the game and the emergence of WR Rashee Rice has given him a reliable target to throw to not named “Travis Kelce.” While I’m not leaning on utilizing him as a captain much, if at all, Mahomes will provide a safe floor as a FLEX play and we know that the pressure of playing in a Super Bowl won’t be a factor for him in his third appearance in the “big game.”

TE Travis Kelce: The postseason finally woke Travis Kelce up from his regular season slumber and he has gone on to haul in 23 of 27 targets for 262 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ three playoff games. On paper, it’s a difficult match-up. The 49ers allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs this season and they rank 4th in TE DVOA. However, we know that Kelce will be force-fed targets for the entire game unless the Chiefs jump out to an absurdly large early lead… in which case, Kelce probably already did a big portion of the offensive damage. I’ll leave the “Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce + NFL” conspiracies for someone else.

QB Brock Purdy: I don’t keep up with all of the daytime sports talk shows, which are just soap operas with a lot of screaming for middle-aged dudes if you ask me. But I am well aware of the “game manager” and “only good because of his supporting cast” narratives that surround Brock Purdy. I don’t care how he does it, the fact is, Purdy tends to get the job done and is typically a solid all-around DFS option. He led all NFL quarterbacks this season in QB Rating, yards per completion, and passing success rate while ranking 3rd in touchdown passes (31) and 4th in completion percentage (69.4%). Has he been lights out in the 49ers’ two playoff games? Not exactly. But he has scored 15.48 DKFP and 18.48 DKFP while also showing off a bit of rushing upside (48 yards rushing in the NFCCG). The Chiefs are 5th in pass DVOA and also allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs this season, but Purdy is a quality QB who is surrounded by elite play-making weapons, so it would be ridiculous to completely ignore him when constructing DFS lineups.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jake Moody / K Harrison Butker: This game won’t feature many safe, or even overly viable, “punt” options so kickers and defenses will find a way into many of my lineups. And there will be no weather issues for kickers to worry about inside a domed stadium. Harrison Butker will be the more popular option due to his better consistency, which leaves Moody as a potential leverage option. Ultimately, I would just roll with whichever kicker plays for the team I am favoring in any particular lineup. 4-2 49ers stack? Roll with Moody. 4-2 Chiefs stack? Side with Butker.

49ers D/ST / Chiefs D/ST: I would approach D/STs the same way as outlined with the kickers above. Not that either D/ST is a “must play” to begin with, but you want your lineups to paint a picture. Rostering a D/ST while also loading up on that D/ST’s skill players in hopes of a somewhat lopsided victory is one way to do that.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: The Chiefs’ receiving corps beyond Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice has been a wasteland all season and the outlook is no different heading into the Super Bowl. But MVS has had a couple of huge plays this postseason and he even logged a season-high 83% snap rate in the AFCCG. It’s unclear how much the return of WR Skyy Moore (activated off the IR) or the potential availability of WR Kadarius Toney could impact MVS’ opportunities. But it’d be a relative surprise if MVS doesn’t play the second-most WR snaps for the Chiefs (behind Rice). It’s highly doubtful he’ll see more than two or three targets, but he can always break one loose for a big play.

TE Noah Gray: While it may not be an exciting play, Gray is usually good for two or three receptions per game and always has some “luckbox” touchdown potential. Gray has also played just under a combined 60% snap rate in the AFCCG and Divisional Round so he’s likely going to continue to be out there for the majority of offensive snaps. Certainly worth a flier here and there at his $1,800 price point.

FB Kyle Juszczyk: It’s not often you’ll see a fullback become a viable DFS play but it would not be a major surprise if Juszczyk sees two or three touches with a chance at punching in a goal-line TD. We can’t rule anything out of Kyle Shanahan’s playbook when the stakes are this high, and Juszczyk is going to be on the field for around half of the snaps, to begin with (47% snap% this season, 61% snap% in the NFCCG). It’s not a safe bet and could easily result in a goose egg, but at $800, Juszczyk is worth a dart throw somewhere if you’re entering more than a few lineups.

WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: McCloud won’t log many offensive snaps, unless multiple 49ers’ WRs go down, though he could end up catching a pass or two. But I’d be most interested in pairing him with the 49ers’ D/ST for a chance at the ever-elusive “double dip” touchdown. McCloud returns both punts and kicks for San Francisco. Unlikely as it may be if he houses one, a touchdown is going to be counted for both McCloud and the 49ers D/ST. Realistically, he’s most likely to put up a zero, so this is another one of those ideas that should be ignored unless you’re rolling out a lot of lineups and willing to take on some sizeable risk on an outlandish strategy.

Super Bowl LVIII TD Call

WR Deebo Samuel

Super Bowl LVIII Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Brock Purdy, K Jake Moody: With this combination of players, we’ll be hoping for 30+ points out of the 49ers offense, in which case, this stack gives you exposure to every 49ers’ offensive point scored. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,600.

*WR Deebo Samuel, QB Brock Purdy + Two Other 49ers: As discussed, Deebo is the real X-factor of this excellent San Francisco offense and he’ll be given the ball in a variety of ways. If Deebo has a big night, I think the 49ers win this game by at least a touchdown, which would bring 4-2 49ers-heavy (or 5-1 49ers-heavy) stacks further into play. So, we’ll of course want to pair him with Purdy in the FLEX and, ideally, add two (or three) more 49ers players (or their D/ST) within this stack.

*RB Isiah Pacheco, QB Patrick Mahomes, K Harrison Butker: Identical concept as the first stack listed, just favoring the Chiefs' side of the ball and counting on them to score 30+ points offensively. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $7,466.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack featuring, far and away, his two most reliable targets. Other Chiefs’ pass catchers to mix into CPTN Mahomes lineups (in order of preference): WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, TE Noah Gray, RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Justin Watson, WR Skyy Moore, WR Richie James, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Kadarius Toney (if active). As you’re probably aware, as receivers, all of those players have some prominent “goose egg” potential. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,433.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Christian McCaffrey: This stack features the three most expensive players on the slate, so you’re going to have to REALLY hope your cheap FLEX plays hit. That said, the Kelce/Mahomes connection has been as strong as ever in this postseason and, as good as WR Rashee Rice has been, Kelce is going to be the guy Mahomes goes to in the most crucial circumstances. As far as bring-back plays go, it doesn’t get any better (or any more expensive) than rolling with CMC on the other side. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $4,033.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack. I’d be more than willing to add Brandon Aiyuk’s name into the mix, and I don’t even hate the idea of rolling with a CPTN Purdy triple-stack that features Deebo, Kittle, AND Aiyuk. However, that would require a career performance from Purdy and would make it impossible to fit in either CMC or Mahomes. But CPTN Purdy double-stacks are squarely on the showdown radar for this game. Other 49ers’ pass catchers to mix into CPTN Purdy stacks (in order of preference): WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Jauan Jennings, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, WR Ronnie Bell, WR Chris Conley. Everyone past Jennings is a potential goose egg. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,466.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Harrison Butker MORE than 1.5 FG Made

Kyle Juszczyk MORE than 4.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Don’t forget to take advantage of the Patrick Mahomes “free square” as well!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!