We have a high-stakes NFC West showdown to open up Week 15 in the NFL. The division-leading 9-4 49ers, currently riding a six-game win streak, travel to face the 7-6 Seahawks who will hope to get within a game of the division lead with a win at home tonight. Let’s hone in on some top showdown DFS plays, strategies, and player props!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks | 43 O/U

SF: 23.3 Implied Points | SEA: 19.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Brock Purdy - Questionable (expected to play), WR Deebo Samuel - OUT, QB Jimmy Garoppolo - OUT, RB DeeJay Dallas - Questionable

Score Prediction: SF - 23, SEA - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 49ers, 4-2 Seahawks

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

49ers Defense / Seahawks Offense

Seahawks Defense / 49ers Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Christian McCaffery: CMC is no stranger to DFS lineups, especially when it comes to these single-game formats. The 49ers have yet to lose a game with CMC on the roster and he should be THE most featured player in this game. We know things don’t always work out with how the stats and averages line up on paper, but this is a dream match-up for a running back. The Seahawks have surrendered the MOST FPPG to RBs this season and, over the last four weeks, RBs have racked up 171.5 rushing YPG, 42.0 receiving YPG, 1.8 TDs/Gm, and 38.9 FPPG against Seattle. San Francisco will be without one of their big playmakers in Deebo Samuel (knee/ankle/out) and they’re running out rookie third-string QB Brock Purdy for his second career NFL start. Needless to say, even with Purdy impressing over the last two weeks, CMC will be the key cog that will make this offense go tonight.

WR Tyler Lockett: The Seahawks will have to contend with a stout 49ers defense that has allowed 17 points or fewer in 10 games this season (including six straight) and ranks 2nd in overall DVOA. So, when it comes to Seahawks players, it’s going to be vital to dig deeper into specific match-ups in search of a potential edge. Somewhat surprisingly, the 49ers have given up the 5th most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks (10th most FPPG on the season). Their secondary has been most vulnerable on the right perimeter and in the slot. That just so happens to be where Tyler Lockett runs 84% of his routes (45% right perimeter%, 39% slot%). Lockett has been as consistent as it gets and he’s currently riding a six-game streak with a receiving touchdown. The Seahawks are +3.5 home underdogs but they’re sure to put up a fight and Lockett will be a key piece to their potential success, as usual.

TE George Kittle: It’s been a lackluster few weeks for Kittle recently but the rule of thumb is ya play tight ends versus Seattle, who is giving up the 2nd most FPPG to the position. They’ve actually been stout against TEs recently, allowing the 2nd FEWEST FPPG to TEs, but they’ve faced guys like Tommy Tremble, Tyler Higbee (w/ John Wolford at QB), Foster Moreau, and Cameron Brate… not exactly a ton of elite TE talent on that list. But let’s take a couple of other factors into the equation. The injured Deebo Samuel leaves behind a 21.0% TGT% and Brandon Aiyuk will be matched up with the incredibly impressive rookie CB Tariq Woolen for much of the night. QBs are only testing Woolen by targeting receivers in his coverage on 14% of routes ran against him. So, it all boils down to Kittle being in a favorable spot -- he should see increased target volume and draws a pristine match-up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Geno Smith: It’s a brutal match-up against the 49ers who have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs and just 0.9 passing TDs/gm this season. With that said, Geno has been a rock-solid QB throughout the season and has posted at least 19.08 DKFP in six consecutive games. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven straight games but that will be a tough streak to maintain tonight. So, we’ll view him as more of a high-floor FLEX play rather than a go-to captain option.

QB Brock Purdy: We can view Purdy in a similar light as Geno Smith -- a relatively high-floor FLEX play, though his inexperience at the NFL level provides some more hesitation than it does with Smith and it’s not necessarily a great match-up against the Seahawks (9th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs L4Wks). Still, if he can put up 21.7 DKFP against a good Bucs defense, then he has some decent upside tonight and he still has some excellent weapons around him, even without Deebo available. Do note that this will be his first game on the road in the NFL, which could certainly play a significant factor. There is a lot on the line for the Seahawks in this game and Seattle can be one of the most difficult and rowdiest places to play at in the NFL.

WR DK Metcalf: He’ll have a tougher match-up when he lines up on the left perimeter (Metcalf: 61% left perimeter%, SF: 3rd fewest FPPG allowed to left perimeter WRs) but Metcalf enters tonight averaging 10.5 targets/gm over the last four games. Geno Smith is going to get him some targets one way or the other, especially when the Seahawks break into the redzone. Metcalf owns a phenomenal 41.5% redzone TGT%, which is one of the top marks in the entire NFL.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

49ers D/ST: San Fran is just a lights-out defensive unit and their D/ST has averaged 13.5 FPPG over their last four games. Even on the road against a fairly solid Seahawks offense, the 49ers D/ST deserves some definite FLEX consideration.

RB Jordan Mason: CMC isn’t going to carry the entire load in the 49ers backfield so Jordan Mason will see his fair share of opportunities. Over the last two games, Mason has taken 19 carries for 107 yards, averaging an efficient 5.6 YPC.

K Robbie Gould / K Jason Myers: Both kickers will be perfectly fine FLEX value plays. A total in the mid-40s typically leads to more field goals than touchdowns and wind won’t be an issue in Seattle tonight.

WR Jauan Jennings: Not a bad play on the (fairly) cheap. Jennings should step into a higher snap share with Deebo sidelined.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Tyler Lockett

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffery, 49ers D/ST, WR Tyler Lockett: It’s hard to go wrong with CMC at captain tonight. The one caveat is that he’ll eat up a massive chunk of your salary so we’ll slide in the 49ers D/ST for both correlation purposes and salary relief purposes. Run it back with Lockett on the other side.

*WR Tyler Lockett, QB Geno Smith, TE George Kittle: You can’t always count on touchdowns but Lockett’s streak of six games with a touchdown entering this week is one helluva trend. As discussed in his player spotlight above, he’ll also draw the most favorable match-up(s) since he runs nearly all of his routes on the right perimeter and in the slot. Stack Geno Smith in the FLEX as a correlation play and run it back with Kittle.

*TE George Kittle, QB Brock Purdy, WR DK Metcalf: The targets should be there for Kittle tonight -- no Deebo, and the Seahawks have been torched by talented tight ends all season. You can guarantee that Shanahan and the 49ers coaching staff are aware of this. The tight end is often a young QB’s best friend, so we’ll run a correlation stack with QB Brock Purdy in the FLEX and run it back with DK Metcalf (or Tyler Lockett).

*QB Geno Smith, WR Tyler Lockett, WR DK Metcalf: This Geno Smith double-stack with Lockett and Metcalf has been extremely solid this season. If they can overcome the brutal match-up and dial up a creative game plan, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this stack land in the optimal lineup.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double stack. It’s fairly risky since this will be Purdy’s first NFL action in a road environment, but anything goes in these primetime games.

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Geno Smith, RB Christian McCaffery: I prefer Lockett’s match-up but Metcalf is far and away the bigger and more utilized redzone weapon, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he has a big night. Pair him with Smith in the FLEX and jam in a high-end bring-back option like CMC.

4-2 Seahawks-Heavy Stacks + Fade Christian McCaffery (in this specific lineup build): If Brock Purdy struggles in his first NFL road game and CMC gets held in check, any 4-2 Seahawks-heavy stacks without CMC in them would be a very unique lineup build for this game. If you’re entering more than a few lineups into GPPs tonight, I’d consider sprinkling in this lineup strategy.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

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George Kittle MORE than 10.0 Fantasy Score

Tyler Lockett + DK Metcalf MORE than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!