An intriguing primetime AFC East clash is on tap tonight as Josh Allen and the Bills travel into Foxborough to take on Mac Jones and the Pats!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New England Patriots | 43.5 O/U

BUF: 23.5 Implied Points | NE: 20.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Jakobi Meyers - Questionable (expected to play), RB Damien Harris - OUT, TE Quintin Morris - Questionable

Score Prediction: BUF - 27, NE - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Patriots

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Bills Defense / Patriots Offense

Patriots Defense / Bills Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Josh Allen: Even in a difficult match-up against a Patriots defense that ranks 2nd in overall DVOA and 3rd in pass DVOA, it’s nearly impossible to leave Josh Allen out of the captain discussion. He has truly had just one poor game this season, and, if you recall, that was week 11 where the Bills had to rather hastily relocate their game from Buffalo to Detroit due to an incoming blizzard -- understandably, some Bills players came out a bit flat. Otherwise, Allen has netted at least 24.52 DKFP in 9-of-11 games this season. And, while the Patriots match-up is the major negative, if you go through the list of QBs New England has faced, you’ll notice a trend. Suspect QBs like Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger, Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff, and Mitch Trubisky struggled heavily against the Pats. More capable QBs that faced the Pats had good-to-great performances: Kirk Cousins (22.86 DKFP), Justin Fields (24.36 DKFP), Aaron Rodgers (17.14 DKFP), and Lamar Jackson (43.42 DKFP). And even Zach Wilson managed to put up 22.4 DKFP against them in week eight. So don’t shy away from rolling Allen at captain tonight simply because of the defensive match-up.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Damien Harris will be sidelined with a thigh injury tonight, which paves the way for another workhorse role for Stevenson. In two games that Harris has missed this season (weeks 6 and 9), Stevenson played 86% of snaps (Wk6: 23 touches, 91 total yards, two TDs) and 73% of snaps (Wk9: 18 touches, 70 total yards, one TD). Stevenson’s role as a pass-catching RB makes him an awesome DFS asset. He’s coming off of a 10-target game last week and has commanded at least five targets in nine consecutive games. The Bills’ run defense has also been rather exploitable recently. Over their last four games, Buffalo is allowing the 10th most FPPG to RBs, including 103.5 rushing YPG, 39.8 receiving YPG, and 1.0 TD/Gm. Stevenson will operate as a game-flow independent RB tonight -- if the Pats are ahead, he’ll handle more rush attempts; if the Pats are behind, he’ll see additional targets.

WR Gabe Davis: On the majority of his routes, Davis should see coverage from CB Jalen Mills out on the left perimeter. The Patriots have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to the left perimeter over the last eight weeks. Davis is a bit more reliant on big plays rather than raw target volume, but his ceiling is high enough to where he makes sense as a bit of a contrarian (and cheaper) captain candidate.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Stefon Diggs: The only reason to temper expectations for Diggs tonight would be his likely shadow match-up against CB Jonathan Jones, who has been excellent this season. Diggs does run just over a third of his routes out of the slot (35% slot%), and he’ll mostly escape Jones’ (7% slot%) coverage there. Diggs will get his heavy dosage of targets one way or the other, but this may be a better spot for him as a FLEX play rather than a captain option since his ceiling may be limited on his perimeter routes.

WR Jakobi Meyers: Meyers heads into this TNF game a bit banged up with a shoulder injury but all signs point toward him suiting up this evening. His 22.8% TGT% may not be on par with WR1s in other offenses, but that target share does lead all Patriots receivers. WR1s have done incredibly well against the Bills in recent weeks: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Wk12: 30.9 DKFP), Amari Cooper (Wk11: 34.3 DKFP), Justin Jefferson (Wk10: 38.3 DKFP), and Garrett Wilson (Wk9: 17.3 DKFP). As long as Meyers can play his usual allotment of snaps, he makes for a fine FLEX play tonight.

TE Dawson Knox: The Patriots have held opposing RBs to 2.4 YPC and the fewest FPPG over the last four games, and they’ll likely keep an extra man in the box to account for Josh Allen’s rushing ability. The Bills will also be without starting LT Dion Dawkins. So, while he had a quiet two-catch game in week 12, I could envision Knox operating as sort of an extension to the run game via shorter aDOT routes near the line of scrimmage. The Patriots are also vulnerable against tight ends. They’ve allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (8) to TEs this season and the 8th most FPPG.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR DeVante Parker: On paper, Parker (91% perimeter%) has a plus match-up against a Bills secondary that has surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last eight weeks. And while the Patriots do not take many deep shots, when Mac Jones does throw downfield, DeVante Parker is typically the target of interest given his team-leading 16.6-yard aDOT. The Bills' secondary will have former two-time Pro Bowl CB Tre’Davious White in the lineup, who was active for the first time this season in week 12. However, White played just 16 defensive snaps (23% snap%) last week and likely isn’t ready for a full snap share just yet.

K Tyler Bass OR K Nick Folk: A total in the mid-40s often leads to more FGA than touchdowns. Bass and Folk have both scored double-digit fantasy points in three of their last four games and the weather isn’t looking too bad in Foxborough tonight (cold with winds around 8 mph). Both kickers are in play as affordable FLEX fillers.

RB Pierre Strong Jr./RB Kevin Harris/ JJ Taylor: Due to the Damien Harris injury, one of these three guys will step in as the backup to Rhamondre Stevenson tonight. Until actives/inactives come out pre-game, it’s unclear which guy may see snaps behind Stevenson. It’s a complete dart throw, but there may be valuable touches to be had here, and all three guys are the bare minimum of $200 on DraftKings.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Gabe Davis

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis: Standard CPTN Allen double stack. Substitute Diggs or Davis for TE Dawson Knox if you need the salary savings.

*RB Rhamondre Stevenson, K Nick Folk, QB Josh Allen: Volume should not be an issue for Stevenson tonight so he’s a clear captain candidate. The real question would be how to build around a CPTN Stevenson lineup. I usually like pairing RBs with their kickers in hopes of soaking up most/all of their team’s points scored. We can run it back with Josh Allen on the other side as a high-floor, premium FLEX option.

*WR Gabe Davis, QB Josh Allen, RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Utilizing Davis at captain won’t break the bank but he’ll still provide optimal upside. His cheaper DFS price will make it easy to fit in multiple high-floor FLEX options like Allen and Stevenson.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, K Tyler Bass: This stack gives you potential exposure to every point the Bills score tonight. As discussed above, it’s not an easy match-up for Diggs against CB Johnathan Jones. But Allen is going to force-feed Diggs targets regardless and he’s nearly as match-up proof as it gets on this elite offense.

*WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Mac Jones, TE Dawson Knox: WR1s have torched the Bills in recent weeks. Meyers may not have as much raw talent as some of the other top WRs that have given Buffalo trouble recently, but he remains the number one option in the Patriots receiving game with a team-high 22.8% TGT%.

4-2 Patriots-Heavy Stacks: One way to go against the grain in GPPs tonight would be to roll out a 4-2 Pats-heavy stack. The Patriots may not even have to win for this stack to be optimal but traveling into Foxborough for a primetime game is never an easy environment to play in so an upset is not off the table. I’d expect for less than 15% of lineups will deploy Pats-heavy stacks tonight.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rhamondre Stevenson MORE than 34.5 Receiving Yards

Josh Allen MORE than 34.5 Pass Attempts

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!