Both teams head into the short week without their star RBs in the backfield. We'll dig into who may step up in their absence and how this potentially low-scoring primetime match-up will play out, overall.

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville’s run down on this TNF showdown!

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3) | 42 O/U

IND: 19.5 Implied Points | DEN: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Jonathan Taylor (OUT), RB Javonte Williams (IR, OUT), WR Tyrie Cleveland (Questionable)

Score Prediction: IND - 17, DEN - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Broncos, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Colts, 5-1 Broncos (light GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Courtland Sutton: He has pulled away as the clear No. 1 option in the Broncos passing game with 14 more targets than the next closest Denver receiver through four weeks. Sutton has commanded a strong 28.0% TGT% and a 12-yard aDOT. Any time you get a receiver who has roughly a 25+% TGT% and a 10+ yard aDOT, you’re almost always getting a high floor + high ceiling combination -- perfect attributes for a DFS captain selection.

QB Russell Wilson: Wilson has taken a few weeks to adjust to his new team and offensive scheme, but he is coming off of a week 4 meeting with the Raiders where he completed 68% of his passes and posted a season-high 9.5 YPA, 124.9 passer rating, and 27.5 DKFP. With the season-ending knee injury to RB Javonte Williams, the Broncos may begin to lean more on the passing game. Currently, they rank 20th with a 57.9% pass play%, but that could be on the rise starting tonight. It’s also possible that Wilson will see a slight uptick in his rush attempts -- he has run 10 times over the last two weeks and ran into the endzone in week 4.

RB Melvin Gordon III: MG3 looks to step into the featured role sans Javonte Williams. A direct quote from Broncos OC Justin Outten: "With Melvin, he's going to carry the load. We'll have a mix of [Mike] Boone, and then, we have to figure out who can spell and feels best in that position." Gordon has had some fumbling issues this season (4 total fumbles, 2 lost), but if he fixes those ball security issues, he’s a strong candidate to handle 20 touches. It may be tough sledding behind a suspect Broncos O-Line going against a Colts defensive front that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, but volume reigns supreme, and Denver is a home favorite here.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Nyheim Hines: Folks will be jumping at the bit to roster Hines tonight since workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) will not suit up. While Hines’ snaps should rise, he’s not exactly a “between the tackles” runner, so he is likely to retain his primary role as a pass catcher. With that said, Hines’ floor should be solid and he could see some additional redzone work as well. With top receiving option Michael Pittman Jr. facing shadow coverage from emerging lockdown corner Patrick Surtain II, some additional targets may need to be funneled elsewhere. The Broncos defense also blitzes at the 4th highest rate (35.4% blitz%) in the NFL which may lead to additional screens and check-downs to Hines.

TE Mo Alie-Cox: This feels a little ‘point chase-y’ following MAC’s huge 6-85-2 week 4 performance, but the Broncos are extremely stout against WRs (3rd fewest FPPG allowed to WRs). Denver has surrendered some decently high production to opposing TEs who are averaging a 5.3-47-0.5 receiving line (13.0 FPPG). Alie-Cox played on a season-high 70% of snaps last week, and he could end up being a primary target for Matt Ryan tonight.

Broncos D/ST: As noted above in the Hines write-up, the Broncos are an aggressive defense with a 35.4% blitz% (4th highest). They have also tallied 11 sacks (T-6th most) and four turnovers this season while allowing just 15.5 PPG (9.5 PPG in their two home games). Denver checks in at 8th in overall DVOA. Matt Ryan has been sacked on 8.9% of his dropbacks (6th highest), he has faced pressure on 26.0% of his dropbacks (9th highest), and the Colts rank dead last with 1.36 points per offensive drive. Tack on some additional factors, like the Colts playing on the road on a short week without their best offensive weapon, and it could be a long night for Matt Ryan and the Colts offense.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Phillip Lindsay: With no Jonathan Taylor, someone has to take on the early down work in the Colts' backfield. While Hines may see some increased carries, the most likely Colts RBs to handle the bulk of the base down carries are Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay. The argument for Jackson is that he is the guy who was already on the Colts’ active 53-man roster before this week. However, 49 of his 51 overall snaps played this season have come on special teams, and that might be where the Colts intend to keep utilizing him. It’s highly unlikely that Lindsay (elevated from the practice squad to the 53-man roster) fills in for Jackson on special teams while Jackson takes on the featured early down RB role. There is a good bit of guesswork to be done here, but Lindsay would get my vote over Jackson. Also, I can just imagine some of you LineStar chatters, perhaps with a little twitch in your eye, just itching to insert the “REVENGE GAME” narrative into this play. And ya know what? I’ll buy into that narrative a bit tonight. Lindsay is originally from Denver, he spent his first three seasons in the NFL as a Bronco, and this is the first meeting he’ll have against his former team. Finally, Lindsay is only $400 in the DraftKings showdown pricing so you won’t need much for value here.

RB Mike Boone: Not a big fan of the price on Boone, but the Broncos are still likely to utilize multiple backs in a committee approach. While Melvin Gordon III will take on the more featured role, we could still see Boone handle anywhere from 30% to 45% of the snaps. He had just one touch through the first three weeks but after Javonte Williams went down, Boone came in and actually out-snapped Gordon 19-to-10 in week 4. He took three carries for 20 yards (6.7 YPC) and was targeted three times, catching one for nine yards. Boone is an intriguing FLEX play, especially if he continues to be utilized as a pass catcher and/or if Melvin Gordon III continues to struggle with ball security. There is some concern with Boone in pass protection, so if he struggles to pick up blitzes on passing downs, that could impact his snaps noticeably.

TE Eric Saubert: After playing on 77% of snaps last week, Saubert now leads the Broncos TEs in offensive snap%. Albert Okwuegbunam, who was thought to be the primary pass-catching Broncos TE entering the season, has seen his snaps decrease each week this season, and he was on the field for just one play in week 4. Saubert has only two catches on six targets this season, but he has an unusually high 17.7-yard aDOT, and both of his catches have gone for 20+ yards. If he’s going to continue seeing upwards of an 80% snap%, he’s worth a shot as a FLEX flier in GPPs. Standing at 6’5” and 253 lbs, he is also a big-bodied target that could command some looks in the redzone. The Colts have also allowed the 6th most FPPG to opposing TEs this season.

K Brandon McManus OR K Chase McLaughlin: As usual, kickers are almost always going to be in play for single-game slates thanks to their low salaries and high median projections. The thin air in Denver also adds a little extra yardage to kicks, increasing a head coach’s confidence in attempting longer field goals. Winds are forecasted to only be around 5 mph in Denver tonight, so there is no real concern there. Ownership-wise, I believe McLaughlin could be the smarter GPP option since he's likely to have noticeably less ownership than McManus.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Melvin Gordon III

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Courland Sutton, QB Russell Wilson, RB Nyheim Hines: Sutton has seen 7+ targets every game this season, and he finally connected with Wilson on a touchdown pass in week 4. Sutton should continue to operate as the WR1 on Thursday night. We’ll stack him with Wilson and run it back with pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines on the other side.

*QB Russell Wilson, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jerry Jeudy: Standard CPTN Wilson double stack. Sutton and Jeudy combine for a 45.5% TGT%. It’s also worth noting that the now injured Javonte Williams was third on the team with a 15.8% TGT% so those targets will be distributed elsewhere. Sutton and Jeudy are the two obvious beneficiaries.

*RB Melvin Gordon III, Broncos D/ST, TE Mo Alie-Cox: If Gordon is entrusted with 20+ touches in this game, including most/all of the goal line work, his chances to end the night as the optimal captain will skyrocket. Pairing him with the Broncos D/ST makes sense from a correlation standpoint and we’ll run it back with a Colts pass catcher.

*Broncos D/ST, RB Mike Boone, K Brandon McManus: This is an ugly stack on the surface but one that could easily be filled out with multiple studs/high-priced players. The Colts have just been a train wreck offensively this season and that is likely to continue without Jonathan Taylor. Odds are that Patrick Surtain II will shadow Michael Pittman Jr. in this game and he’s been locking down the top perimeter WR on opposing teams all season, allowing just 103 yards and zero TDs on 25 targets thrown to WRs in his coverage (per Mike Clay, ESPN). A D/ST usually needs either a shutout or a defensive/special teams touchdown to come away as the optimal captain… but that is a possibility tonight.

5-1 Broncos “Smash” Lineup Builds (Include Broncos D/ST): The Broncos completely shutting down the Colts in this game is totally within the range of outcomes. If the Jags defense can blank ‘em (with a healthy Jonathan Taylor), the Broncos could do the same. The spread is only DEN -3 here, and even when teams are 10+ point favorites, most single-game lineups will still roster two or three players from the expected losing team. So, very few lineups will roll out 5-1 Broncos “smash” builds tonight making it a worthy GPP approach.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Melvin Gordon MORE THAN 12.5 Receiving Yards

Michael Pittman Jr. LESS THAN 63.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!