Thursday Night Football: Commanders at Bears | LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview 📺

Well, it's not an exciting primetime match-up lined up for this evening but, let's be real, we're all going to watch it anyway. There are still GPPs to take down so let's dig into some players to consider for this single-game showdown slate!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Washington Commanders (-1) at Chicago Bears | 38 O/U

WAS: 19.5 Implied Points | CHI: 18.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Jahan Dotson (OUT), TE Logan Thomas (OUT), WR Dyami Brown (Questionable, expected to play)

Score Prediction: WAS - 20, CHI - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Commanders, 4-2 Bears

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Carson Wentz: Wentz was dealing with a shoulder injury ahead of this game but a full practice on Wednesday allowed him to shed his injury designation. In a game that possesses a low 38-point over/under (with a good chance of going under), there are no clear-cut ‘must plays’ on the board. However, Wentz should provide arguably the best floor in this game and he has shown a strong ceiling this season. Washington has been the 3rd most pass-happy team in the NFL with a 66.7% pass play%. This has led to them scoring 83.3% of their touchdowns through the air, which is the highest percentage in the NFL. Wentz is behind a shoddy O-Line and he’ll be without a couple of his pass catchers (J. Dotson & L. Thomas) in this game. But he’ll be up against a middling Bears defense and has a decent shot at 250+ yards and multiple TDs tonight.

QB Justin Fields: The damage through the air has not been there but Fields’ rushing volume (8.4 carries/gm, 38.8 rushing YPG) will also make him a solid floor/ceiling play. While Fields is averaging only 17.6 passing attempts/gm and a lackluster 55.7% comp%, when he is completing passes, they’re going for excellent yardage. Somewhat surprisingly, Fields leads the NFL with a 13.9 yards per completion average and his 9.4-yard aDOT (average depth of target) ranks 5th. The Commanders rank 29th in pass DVOA so perhaps this could be one of Fields’ better passing performances to date.

WR Curtis Samuel: He has seen at least seven targets in every game this season, averaging 9.0 TGT/gm overall. That target volume leads to a strong floor and if he finds the endzone, his chances to end this game as the optimal captain will skyrocket. Samuels’ targets aren’t coming deep down the field, as evidenced by his 4.5-yard aDOT. However, that has led to a high 71.1% catch% and Samuel has been effective after the catch this season with a team-leading 143 YAC. Samuel (72% slot%) is also in a good spot against rookie slot corner Kyler Gordon who opposing QBs have targeted on 33% of routes ran against him. The absences of WR Jahan Dotson and TE Logan Thomas leave open an additional 20.6% TGT% that will need to be distributed elsewhere and, while he hasn’t had any rush attempts in the last couple of games, Samuel does occasionally mix in some backfield work as well.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Terry McLaurin: Scary Terry has quietly had a decent season up to this point, averaging 65.2 YPG with a 17.2 yards per catch average, which ranks 8th in the NFL. McLaurin is the most talented WR on the Commanders roster so it is a little surprising to see him possess a lowly 16.2% TGT%. However, I do believe he’ll be the biggest beneficiary of Jahan Dotson’s absence considering he operates as more of a downfield threat, similar to McLaurin (Dotson: 15-yard aDOT, McLaurinL 14.4-yard aDOT). The fact that the Bears run the ball so much (NFL-high 60.2% rush play%) will negatively impact the number of offensive plays that the Commanders will be able to run. If it was a large slate we were talking about, McLaurin wouldn’t stand out as a great play. But in the microcosm of this single-game match-up, he’s absolutely worth FLEX consideration and he’s not a bad captain option either, given his 25+ FP ceiling.

RB David Montgomery: Following a one-week absence with an ankle injury, Montgomery returned in week five to play 72% of snaps where he punched in his first TD of the season. His high snap share last week does quell some concerns about Khalil Herbert eating into his snaps. Montgomery has an inefficient 3.8 YPC average and he’s only averaging 1.4 yards before contact behind a subpar Bears O-Line. But decent volume and strong touchdown equity will put him on the FLEX/contrarian captain radar. Montgomery should be involved as a pass catcher as well -- he took four catches for 62 yards last week.

Bears D/ST: In what is likely to be an ugly low-scoring affair, defenses will definitely fall into play. Health-wise, the Bears' defense has an advantage over a banged-up Commanders offense (see SIC Score/Field View below). The Bears' defense ranks 12th with a 13.7% TO% (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover) and they have put pressure on 27.2% of QB dropbacks (ranks 7th in the NFL). Carson Wentz has been sacked 20 times this season, making him the third-most sacked QB in the league. There is some solid double-digit fantasy point upside out of this Bears D/ST tonight.

via sicscore.com

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Cairo Santos OR K Joey Slye: It’s looking like a low-scoring game tonight where several offensive drives could stall out within field goal range. Both kickers are in play despite some expected 10-15 mph winds.

RB JD McKissic: McKissic’s DFS value gets a major boost on DraftKings given the full PPR scoring format. He doesn’t usually have much of an impact as a runner but his clear value comes as a receiver. McKissic is averaging 6.0 TGT/gm and has as many as seven catches in a game this season. This Commanders backfield is a full-blown committee now that Brian Robinson Jr. has returned to action but McKissic led all Washington RBs with a 41% snap% last week. His usage will increase if the Commanders play from behind in this game and the Bears have allowed the 8th most FPPG to opposing RBs.

TE John Bates: He played 59% of snaps last week with Logan Thomas (calf) sidelined. Good chance he’ll handle a similar snap share and he’ll likely command a handful of targets as well. Bates stands out as one of the safer cheap plays on the slate.

TE Cole Turner: Highlighting multiple Commanders tight ends feels gross but it's suitable for what appears to be a gross game. Turner is nothing more than a $200 lottery ticket on DraftKings. Despite not bringing in a catch in week five, Turner was targeted three times and played 51% of snaps. He should be on the field quite a bit once again with Logan Thomas sidelined and, who knows, maybe he’s the random tight end who catches a touchdown tonight.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Curtis Samuel

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Carson Wentz, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Terry McLaurin: It’s not an exciting double stack, but if you roll with Wentz at CPTN, ya gotta work in some correlation and take a couple of his pass catchers in the FLEX. Samuel and McLaurin are the two most obvious/safest stack options.

*QB Carson Wentz, TE John Bates, RB JD McKissic: A less conventional but possibly effective CPTN Wentz double stack. Depending on game flow, Bates and McKissic could combine for around 12-15 targets.

*QB Justin Fields, WR Darnell Mooney, K Cairo Santos: Fields’ low passing volume makes it less crucial to run a double stack with him as your captain, but I would fit in at least one Bears pass catcher. Mooney has the most upside due to his 24.7% TGT%. Throw in Cairo Santos in hopes of gaining exposure to all Bears offensive points scored in the game.

*WR Curtis Samuel, QB Carson Wentz, RB David Montgomery: Samuel brings realistic 10+ target upside to the table so he’s a worthy CPTN play tonight. Stack him with Wentz in the FLEX and run it back with Montgomery on the other side.

*RB David Montgomery, Bears D/ST, WR Terry McLaurin: Monty has solid 15-20 touch potential tonight with a decent chance to find the endzone once or twice. I’d pair the Bears D/ST with him in the FLEX as a correlation play and run it back with a Commanders receiver on the other side.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

JD McKissic MORE than 19.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Fields MORE than 13.5 Fantasy Score

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!