A juicy star-studded primetime match is on tap for Thursday Night Football!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) | 47 O/U

MIA: 21.5 implied points | CIN: 25.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (Questionable, “plans to play”), WR Jaylen Waddle (Questionable), WR Cedric Wilson Jr. (Questionable)

Score Prediction: MIA - 24, CIN - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bengals, 4-2 Dolphins

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Joe Burrow: There are several star playmakers in this primetime match-up, but we’ll begin by highlighting Joe Burrow. The big concern with Burrow stems from his O-Line protection. He has been under pressure on 38 dropbacks this season -- 4th most among NFL QBs. However, Burrow has dropped back more than most QBs, and the 25.5% pressure% is only the 12th highest. Miami has been torn up by opposing QBs and has allowed the most FPPG to the position… buuuuut facing Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in back-to-back weeks is no easy task for any defense. With that said, the Dolphins rank 31st in pass DVOA and have pressured QBs on just 14.6% of dropbacks (4th lowest). If that trend continues, Burrow may have the most time in the pocket he has had all season. And we know he has an embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position.

WR Tyler Boyd: Ja’Marr Chase is the clear superstar of this WR corps, and Tee Higgins is a stud in his own right. However, through three games, Boyd has the second-most PPR fantasy points on the team, trailing Chase by just 12.9 points. Again, Chase is incredible, but it is possible that his ceiling could be limited since he will almost certainly draw shadow coverage from top Dolphins CB Xavien Howard, who is questionable (groin) but expected to play. The Dolphins have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs, where Boyd runs nearly 90% of his routes. On DraftKings, you’re also getting a $4,000 discount ($6,000 CPTN discount) by rolling with Boyd instead of Chase. Does that mean I would be firmly against going with Chase (or Higgins) as captain plays? Nope. But Boyd has comparable upside at a much lower cost in this match-up.

WR Tyreek Hill: We are assuming that Tua Tagovailoa (back) suits up for this game and, by all indications, he will. Jaylen Waddle’s status appears to be more in line with his questionable designation as he deals with a groin injury. He has been limited in practice, but it could be the Dolphins taking extra precautions on a short week. Whether or not Waddle plays, Tyreek Hill brings his typical slate-breaking upside to the table. The Bengals’ secondary has been stout on the perimeter, allowing the fewest FPPG to outside WRs. Hill has run over a third of his routes out of the slot (CIN 8th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs), so he’ll see more favorable coverages there. There is also some spicy subplot beef brewing between Hill and Bengals CB Eli Apple. Hill had some words for Apple following Miami's week three win, and he’s likely to draw Apple’s coverage on around half of his routes. Apple has been sharp this season, so we’ll see if The Cheetah gets the best of this match-up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Tee Higgins: The 19 targets for Higgins this season represent a rather low 17.7% TGT% for a receiver of his caliber. Ja’Marr Chase commands the heavy target share with a 29.3% TGT% but, as mentioned above with Boyd, there is a real possibility that Chase’s ceiling and targets are somewhat limited from Xavien Howard's shadow coverage. Higgins carries an affordable $8,200 showdown salary and should draw more favorable coverage against CB Nik Needham, who has allowed a 70% catch% this season (per PFF).

RB Joe Mixon: The Bengals RB has yet to find the endzone this season, but that should only suppress his ownership a bit. On a single-game slate, a workhorse RB like Mixon (23.7 touch/gm) will still command significant ownership but less so than if he had punched in one or two TDs already this season. Mixon rarely comes off of the field (78.4% snap%), and he’s been a significant factor as a pass catcher (16.7% TGT%). Miami is solid up front defensively, ranking 7th in rush DVOA, but Mixon will easily be the best RB they’ve gone up against this season.

K Evan McPherson: It’s feeling a little Bengals-heavy thus far in this article, but McPherson is a tough value *not* to mention. And, as we saw on MNF, kickers have the potential to be optimal captain plays. McPherson has a huge leg and offers notable double-digit fantasy point upside in a match-up that figures to be fairly high-scoring. He has posted a double-digit fantasy score in 13 of his last 18 games and has already connected on a couple of 50+ yard FGs this season.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Raheem Mostert: With two star-studded offenses headlined by incredible receivers, the number of viable fliers and dart throws feels quite limited in this primetime clash. Mostert does deserve some recognition as a potential player to fill out your showdown lineups. He is the cheaper RB in this Miami backfield but has played on just five fewer snaps than Chase Edmonds. He hasn’t broken loose yet this season, but Mostert does have the big play upside and has a strong chance to handle around 10-15 total touches.

WR Trent Sherfield: If Jaylen Waddle and/or Cedrick Wilson Jr. are ruled out, Sherfield would be in line for a heavy amount of snaps. With Wilson limited to five snaps last week, Sherfield was in on 63% of snaps and operated as the team’s WR3. He only drew one target, but it’s all about the opportunity with these dart throws. Simply being on the field is the single largest hurdle guys like Sherfield must first jump over in order to contribute. But, again, his viability hinges on the availability of Waddle and, to a lesser extent, Cedrick Wilson Jr.

Bengals D/ST: Cincinnati ranks 10th in overall DVOA this season. If Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t seem to be 100% or if Jaylen Waddle sits, then they’ll be able to fully key in on stopping Tyreek Hill, and, from that point, things could get ugly fast for Miami. An added boost also goes to any defense when they’re at home, and the Bengals do come in as moderate four-point favorites on Thursday Night Football when overall scores tend to be lower on the short week.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Tyler Boyd

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd: Standard CPTN Burrow double stack.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Joe Mixon: Tyreek’s week two receiving line (11-190-2) was a big reminder that he’s one of the most lethal WRs in the league, and Tua is capable of supporting him even with Jaylen Waddle commanding a 29.7% TGT%. I’m willing to overlook Hill's week three dud performance (2-33-0) and slot him in as a CPTN play on Thursday night.

*WR Tyler Boyd, QB Joe Burrow, RB Raheem Mostert: If you roll with any of the big three Bengals WRs, Burrow is almost a must-add in the FLEX to complete the stack. And, while it doesn’t feel great to trust either of the Miami RBs, we’ll run this stack back with Mostert while still leaving plenty of salary left over for the remaining three FLEX positions.

*RB Joe Mixon, Bengals D/ST, K Evan McPherson: Let’s say this game completely flips the script, and instead of a pass-heavy game, we get sort of an ugly 20-10 Bengals win. In this stack, we’re banking on one or two Mixon TDs, pairing the Bengals D/ST as an RB+D/ST correlation stack with Mixon, and expecting McPherson to connect on multiple FGs.

*K Evan McPherson, WR Tee Higgins, WR Jaylen Waddle: The Dolphins' defense does have the potential to give up several moderately long drives but ultimately stall the Bengals out in field goal range. McPherson is a threat to make it through the uprights anywhere from 60 yards in and he had as many as 21 fantasy points in a single game last season. Hey, weird things happen in primetime and a kicker ending up as the optimal captain play is a more common occurrence than many realize.

*WR Jaylen Waddle, QB Tua Tagovailoa ~OR~ *QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle + one more MIA pass catcher: If both Waddle and Tua carry those “questionable” tags close up to kickoff, I’m willing to bet that will be enough to suppress their overall ownership. Tua has already stated that he plans on playing and teams are always cautious when one of their big playmakers (like Waddle) is a little banged up heading into a short week, so I feel as if Waddle is a decent bet to suit up as well. So, stack these two for leverage (and, if going with Tua at CPTN, run a double Dolphins pass-catcher stack in the FLEX).

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!