The undefeated Eagles roll into Houston as massive 14-point favorites tonight. Will the continue to smash the competition or can the Texans put up a fight on their home turf?

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Philadelphia Eagles (-14) at Houston Texans | 45.5 O/U

PHI: 29.8 Implied Points | HOU: 15.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Brandin Cooks - questionable/not expected to play, WR Nico Collins - OUT

Score Prediction: PHI - 31, HOU - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Eagles, 4-2 Texans

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Texans Defense / Eagles Offense

Eagles Defense / Texans Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Jalen Hurts: I know. Real big shocker with this first captain selection. Hurts may be the most expensive player on the slate, but there are very few non-injury-related scenarios for tonight’s game where Hurts doesn’t come away as at least an optimal FLEX play. His floor has been 16.9 DKFP this season, surpassing the 24 DKFP threshold in 5-of-7 games. Hurts’ real DFS value comes from his rushing ability, however, he is coming off of a season-low in rush attempts (two) and rush yards (10) in week eight. Before last week, Hurts had run at least nine times in every game this season. If he gets back to his scrambling ways, expect Hurts to have one of his better games on the ground as the Texans allow 5.6 yards per rush attempt (ranks 31st in NFL).

WR AJ Brown: AJB enters from a massive, massive week where he caught 6-of-11 targets (36.7% TGT%) for 156 yards and THREE touchdowns. He now owns an elite 31.4% TGT% and a 46.1% share of the Eagles’ total air yards. Brown is also a force in the redzone where he has commanded a phenomenal 39.1% RZ TGT%. Brown is a candidate to face shadow coverage from rookie CB Derek Stingley Jr., the No. 3 overall pick from this year’s NFL Draft. However, that is not necessarily bad based on the rookie’s struggles this season. Other WRs drawn shadow coverage from Stingley (such as Courtland Sutton, Davante Adams, and Mike Williams) have had excellent games.

RB Dameon Pierce: This is a really poor game script for Pierce. I may be wrong, but this PHI +14 spread is the largest this season. If you’re considering any Texans player as captain, I believe it has to be Pierce. The impressive rookie is running behind a shoddy Texans O-Line, but he’s been one of the best and most elusive RBs after contact this season. Pierce ranks 4th among NFL RBs with an average of 2.7 YAC per rush, and he has recorded a broken tackle every 7.1 rush attempts, which is tied for 1st in the NFL. He also handles an NFL-leading 94.1% of his team’s redzone rush attempts. The caveat is that the Texans’ offense does not venture into the redzone very often. While the game script likely won’t favor a run-heavy approach for Houston, it’s not a horrible match-up considering the Eagles rank 22nd in rush DVOA. Due to the absences of WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins tonight, Pierce may also see an uptick in his involvement as a pass catcher.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Miles Sanders: Running backs against the Texans has been a “flow chart play” for the entire season. In the last two weeks, Houston has given up 362 yards rushing and five touchdowns to RBs Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. In their 52 combined rush attempts, that works out to an absurd 7.0 YPC average allowed by this defense. Sanders is not quite the workhorse type of RB that both Henry and Jacobs are, but he is averaging 17.3 rushes/gm over his last four games and will likely be involved in a run-heavy Eagles game flow tonight.

WR DeVonta Smith: AJ Brown has overshadowed DeVonta Smith in a few games this season -- last week being one of those games. The Eagles are also among the lowest-volume passing teams in the NFL, as Jalen Hurts only averages 30.3 pass attempts/gm (20.3 completions/gm). Despite that, Smith is a strong candidate to see 7-10 targets tonight, and he will likely face less defensive attention than fellow WR AJ Brown.

WR Chris Moore: Davis Mills is one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL but he’s may have to throw it 35+ times in this game out of necessity. There is a 37.9% TGT% and a ton of snaps up for grabs, with the Texans set to be without their top two WRs (Cooks and Collins). Texans WRs will face off with a talented Eagles secondary, but Moore (86% slot%) should see the most favorable WR/CB match-up against slot CB Avonte Maddox. Moore should see a season-high in targets tonight. How successful he is with those targets will largely hinge on how accurate Davis Mills can be. Fortunately, Moore’s low 6.4-yard aDOT should lead to targets with a higher chance for completions.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Dallas Goedert: The ceiling isn’t great but you’re usually getting a strong floor out of Goedert who has scored at least 11.6 DKFP in five of his last six games. Thanks to most of his targets coming close to the line of scrimmage, Goedert has logged an impressive 78% catch% this season. He should be a safe bet for another handful of receptions tonight.

Eagles D/ST: It’s a prime spot for the Eagles D/ST tonight. The Texans carry just a 15.8 implied point total and this is a talented Philly defense that has racked up at least 12.0 FP in four of their last six games. They rank 1st in the NFL with creating a turnover on 21.9% of opposing offensive drives and they are tied for 5th with 23 sacks on the season.

WR Phillip Dorsett II: For much of the same reasoning mentioned above with Chris Moore, the same goes for Dorsett. With Nico Collins also out last week, Dorsett actually led all Houston WRs with an 83% snap%, and that was with Brandin Cooks playing 81% of snaps. Outside of week seven when Dorsett caught 2-of-3 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown, he has not done much of anything this season… but the opportunity should be there tonight.

RB Rex Burkhead: It’s an extremely low floor play considering he is coming off of a week where he had just one touch and a 19% snap%, but Burkhead has been utilized as a primary pass catcher throughout this season. He has been targeted 5+ times in four games and the Texans could really use all of the pass catchers they can get tonight.

RB Boston Scott: Decent gamble as a dart throw. He has 13 rushes in the last two games and could see some run in potential garbage time.

TE Brevin Jordan: All of these Texans' tight ends are pretty much lottery ticket dart throws. If I had to pick one, I’ll likely give the nod to Brevin Jordan since he led the Houston TEs with a 56% snap% last week. More snaps = more potential target opportunities and the Eagles have not been particularly stout against TEs this season.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Dameon Pierce

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, TE Dallas Goedert: Like all QBs who can take over games with their rushing ability, I don’t believe you have to double-stack any CPTN Hurts lineup. But, this is a solid Eagles double-stack to consider either way.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Chris Moore: We got a glimpse of the type of ceiling AJ Brown can provide last week in the 35-13 beatdown of the Steelers. The game script could play out quite similarly tonight.

*RB Dameon Pierce, QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith: Pierce should handle upwards of 20+ touches tonight regardless of the game script. If the Texans manage to score one or two touchdowns in this game, Pierce may be responsible for one, or both. He’s a contrarian captain play for sure, but he has been one of the few bright spots for this Texans team this season and, as discussed above, the match-up is not as brutal as some may believe it to be. Run it back with a Hurts + pass catcher stack in the FLEX.

*RB Miles Sanders, Eagles D/ST, WR Chris Moore OR WR Phillip Dorsett II: The Eagles are fairly reluctant to give Sanders a super-heavy workload but he should still see his usual 15-20 touches tonight with multiple chances at a touchdown. Run out the Eagles D/ST as a correlation play and throw one of the Texans WRs in the FLEX as well.

5-1 Eagles “Smash” Stacks: The 5-1 “smash” stack strategy is more obvious in this game given the massive 14-point spread. Most lineups will likely still feature at least two Texans players, despite the strong possibility of a complete Eagles blowout win.

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!