TNF provides us with an NFC South rematch that produced a surprisingly entertaining game two weeks ago. Can we get the same sort of fireworks tonight, or are we in for another painful Thursday Night Football experience? I guess we'll find out soon enough but, for now, let's dive into some DFS plays and props to consider this evening!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers | 41 O/U

ATL: 21.8 Implied Points | CAR: 19.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Chuba Hubbard - Questionable

Score Prediction: ATL - 24, CAR - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Falcons, 4-2 Panthers

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Falcons Defense / Panthers Offense

Panthers Defense / Falcons Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Cordarrelle Patterson: The Falcons are the second-heaviest run team (60.1% rush play%), and they got their utility man back in the mix last week. Patterson was sidelined on the IR for four weeks with a knee injury, but he stepped right back into the action last week and punched in two touchdowns with 44 yards rushing and a nine-yard catch. It was not an efficient day, and Patterson played only 24 snaps (39% snap%) while losing some plays to Tyler Allgeier (38% snap%) and Caleb Huntley (21% snap%). However, of his 24 snaps, he touched the ball on 14 of them so, when he’s on the field, he’s most likely getting the rock. The Falcons also likely didn’t want to immediately hand over a full workload to Patterson in his first game back, especially knowing they were heading into a short week. Patterson receives a strong match-up tonight against a Panthers defense that ranks 23rd in rush DVOA and allows the 3rd most FPPG to RBs.

QB Marcus Mariota: It’s tough to trust either QB in this game, and it’s not likely we’ll get a similar shootout as we saw when these two teams met two weeks ago. Poor weather could also give more incentive for both teams to focus on the ground game. With those factors considered, Mariota remains a tough fade in this game. He does have some rushing upside, and over his last four games, he’s averaging 37.0 YPG on the ground. He has also improved his completion percentage to 67.9% in those last four games, so, while he doesn’t pass it much at all, at least he is racking up more completions recently. In week eight against the Panthers, Mariota completed 20-of-28 passes for 253 yards, three TDs, and two INTs, and he added 43 yards on six carries -- good for 24.42 DKFP. A repeat performance isn’t a great bet, but he does have the potential for 20 DKFP upside, which, in this game -- that sort of score may be all you need for a captain play to be optimal.

WR DJ Moore: The Falcons will continue to be without AJ Terrell, arguably their top CB, who has been out since week eight. The Falcons' secondary is already one of the worst in the NFL, and it’s not as if Terrell has been great when he’s been on the field this season, but it’s a stellar match-up for any opposing WR. Atlanta has given up the most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks and DJ Moore leads the Panthers (and the NFL, for that matter) with a monster 37.2% TGT%. A bad QB situation handicaps him, but volume is the name of the game, and Moore is getting a consistent dose of targets on a weekly basis.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB PJ Walker: As we saw last week, the threat of being benched mid-game in favor of Baker Mayfield is a real concern for Walker. But if he can get off to a strong start against this awful, awful Falcons pass defense, then Walker can put up some decent numbers as he did in this match-up two weeks ago (317 yards, one TD, one INT, 20 yards rushing). The Falcons are a pass funnel defense and they’ve allowed 27.2 FPPG to opposing QBs when on the road this season. If you can stomach some risk, Walker is a worthwhile FLEX/contrarian captain option.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr.: Most people will likely turn to DJ Moore, who is just $800 more on DraftKings. That will make Marshall a strong leverage option tonight. Marshall has benefited from the CMC/Robbie Anderson trades and comes in off of back-to-back 12+ DKFP performances. He played 92% of snaps in each of the last two games and, as mentioned a couple of times already, the match-up is incredibly appealing even in what looks to be some fairly ugly weather conditions.

TE Kyle Pitts: In the last three games, Pitts has led the team with a 33.3% TGT% and 38.1% AirYard%. Of course, the Falcons are not a high passing volume team, so that 33.3% TGT% works out to a “good, not great” 7.0 TGT/gm. Still, it’s encouraging that Pitts is actually getting a decent number of targets, and given his level of talent, simply getting the ball in his hands can produce great results. He did put up his best fantasy performance of the season against this Panthers squad in week eight (9 targets, 5 catches, 80 yards, one TD) and should be one of the go-to FLEX/contrarian captain options tonight at only $7,000.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Tyler Allgeier: Even with Patterson back in the mix, he still saw double-digit touches last week and took 10 carries for 99 yards with a 24-yard catch. He’s probably not going to be as efficient this week and likely needs a TD to land as an optimal FLEX play. But, on a team that runs as much as the Falcons do, Allgeier may put up decent numbers tonight even if he is playing second fiddle to Patterson.

RB Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has logged full practices in back-to-back days so, even though he is still listed as questionable, it would be a surprise if he doesn’t suit up tonight. Hubbard is likely going to steal some early down work from D’Onta Foreman and he’s also the preferred option on passing downs. If the Panthers trail for most/all of this game, Hubbard could easily end up out-snapping Foreman. Even though Foreman has put up a couple of impressive performances following the CMC trade, the Panthers are reluctant to use him when they’re playing from behind.

WR Damiere Byrd: Fair warning, Byrd has a zero-point floor and he’s a straight-up boom-or-bust option. He only has 10 targets on the season but his involvement has increased in recent weeks and, when he is targeted, the ball is being sent to him deep, deep downfield (29.2-yard aDOT). He has hauled in touchdowns of 75 yards and 47 yards in two of the last three weeks and, even in rainy/windy conditions, Byrd will probably see one or two deep shots come his way tonight. He just needs to connect on one of those big plays to pay off his showdown salary.

Falcons D/ST OR Panthers D/ST: The weather forecast is putting me off of both kickers tonight so, instead, I’ll give a boost to both of the defenses since they’re priced similarly to the kickers. Ugly weather, low total, mediocre/bad offenses, decent chance for sacks and turnovers -- all reasons to like the D/STs in this game tonight.

TE Tommy Tremble: He has brought in a touchdown in two of the last three games and the Falcons have surrendered the 2nd most catches, 3rd most yards, and 6th most FPPG to opposing TEs this season.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Cordarrelle Patterson

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons D/ST, WR DJ Moore: It’s a pretty ridiculous $17,700 CPTN price tag for Patterson, but that’s just a byproduct of this match-up between two teams without many standout offensive weapons. Patterson has been targeted more than once in only one-of-five games this season, which is a bit strange following a 69-target, 52-catch season last year. If he can see some positive regression in his role as a pass catcher and punches in a TD, he is a good bet to end the game as the optimal captain despite the high salary. Pairing him with Falcons D/ST for correlation and running it back with DJ Moore on the other side.

*QB Marcus Mariota, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Damiere Byrd: One of the ugliest QB double stacks you’ll ever see. But who knows… it may work. This stack combined for 59.12 DKFP against the Panthers two weeks ago.

*WR DJ Moore, QB PJ Walker, RB Tyler Allgeier: If any player in this game sees double-digit targets, it’s going to be DJ Moore. More targets = more upside. And, to reiterate, this Falcons' secondary is veeeery bad. Stack CPTN Moore with Walker in the FLEX and run it back on the other side with Allgeier (or Patterson).

*QB PJ Walker, WR DJ Moore, WR Terrace Marshall: If Walker can avoid getting benched, this QB/WR/WR double stack actually has some solid potential given the match-up. The Falcons just funnel so much production to the passing game. Moore and Marshall should play 90+% of snaps and could realistically combine for 15-20 targets given the right game script.

*TE Kyle Pitts, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Chuba Hubbard: Pitts is a match-up nightmare and the Falcons are finally starting to throw to him more. It can be hard for Pitts to go wild in the box score while Mariota works as more of a game manager, but the 33.3% TGT% for Pitts over the last three games is encouraging.

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!