It’s an intriguing TNF match-up between a banged-up Ravens team that has had trouble closing out games in the second half and a Bucs team that is looking to avoid going 1-5 in their last six games. Who gets off the schneid tonight?

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) | 46.5 O/U

BAL: 22.3 Implied Points | TB: 24.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: TE Mark Andrews (questionable, expected to play), RB Gus Edwards (questionable, expected to play), WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, “hopeful” to play), WR Russell Gage (OUT), WR Julio Jones (questionable, expected to be active), TE Cameron Brate (OUT), RB JK Dobbins (OUT - IR)

Score Prediction: BAL - 27, TB - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 4-2 Bucs

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Ravens Defense / Bucs Offense

Bucs Defense / Ravens Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Lamar Jackson: The last month has been a disappointing one for Lamar Jackson and his fantasy point outputs. He hasn’t thrown for more than 210 yards in his last four games while posting a 3:4 TD:INT ratio. He has at least kept up his rushing prowess, averaging 66.8 rushing YPG in that four-game span. If Lamar and the Ravens can fix their second-half woes, he should be a perfectly fine captain option to turn to tonight -- we know when he is at his best, Lamar provides insane 40+ FP upside. The Bucs' secondary is dealing with several injuries and they’ll be without some key starters so that could help the Ravens’ passing game get back on track.

QB Tom Brady: Brady is coming off of perhaps his worst back-to-back losses in his career against the Steelers and Panthers -- two teams that the Bucs were double-digit favorites against. Now, I doubt Brady is just completely “done” at this point in his career, and there should still be some gas in the tank. He has attempted an average of 48.3 passes/gm in his last four starts. That is largely due to game scripts that required a lot of passing. But the Bucs could easily fall behind in this game as well. The good news for Brady is that the Ravens' defense is extremely beat up at all three levels. They’re also not getting a ton of pressure on the QB this season (19.3% Pressure%, 7th lowest) so Brady should have time in the pocket to find his targets. Brady’s three best fantasy outputs have come at home this season so that is an encouraging sign with the Bucs playing host to the Ravens this evening.

WR Chris Godwin: Godwin has posted at least 11.5 DKFP in his last four games without scoring a touchdown. He has at least 10 targets in three of those four games, including 25 total targets over the last two weeks. The Ravens have also allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot receivers, where Godwin has run 73% of his routes this season. Receiving volume shouldn’t be an issue, so if he manages to bring in a TD tonight, that could lead to him ending the game as the optimal captain play.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

TE Mark Andrews: The stud tight end may not be at 100% for this game but he is on track to suit up tonight. Even an ~80% healthy Mark Andrews would deserve plenty of DFS consideration. The Ravens are a low-volume passing team, but Andrews does own a monstrous 31.4% TGT% and an even larger 37.5% redzone TGT%. The Bucs have also not been great against TEs this season, allowing the 11th most FPPG to the position.

WR Mike Evans: Evans’ high salary makes him a tough play at captain so, while he does possess a great ceiling, I’d slightly prefer him as a FLEX play. He had a case of “the drops” last week, which included a surefire long touchdown on a perfect first-quarter pass from Brady. As long as he leaves those drop issues behind him, Evans brings a quality floor and captain-worthy upside to the table. In his last four games, he has seen 9.3 TGT/Gm and has averaged 80.5 YPG. He primarily aligns on the left perimeter, and the Ravens have allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs on that side of the field.

RB Gus Edwards: Edwards is another one of the Ravens players that is “questionable but expected to play.” Last week was Edwards’ first game off of the IR, and he stepped immediately into a key role. He only played 23 snaps in week seven (36% snap%), but he handled 16 carries for 66 yards and scored two TDs while also being targeted once. With JK Dobbins (knee) riding the IR, this will be a split backfield with Edwards, Justice Hill, and Kenyan Drake all likely to get opportunities. However, Edwards has the best chance at 12-15 carries, including likely goal-line work. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Justin Tucker OR K Ryan Succop: Tucker is the best leg in the game and Succop has been a reliable kicker for virtually his entire career. A game total in the mid-40s means more likelihood for FG attempts than touchdowns and the weather in Tampa Bay looks very kicker-friendly with temps in the mid-70s and light winds under 5 mph. Tucker is going to be the more popular kicking option so consider Succop to be a solid leverage play even though he is the cheaper kicker playing for the favored team.

TE Cade Otton: With Cameron Brate (neck) sidelined, Otton should once again take over as the Bucs’ primary receiving tight end. With Brate also out last week, Otton played 81% of snaps and caught 4-of-5 targets for 64 yards. Otton has now caught 76.2% of his targets this season which is a nice way to build rapport and trust with Tom Brady. We know Brady likes throwing to his tight end, and while Otton is no Gronk, he should be a solid value option to consider. If he can haul in a TD, he would be nearly a guaranteed bet to land in the optimal lineup. The Ravens have allowed the 12th most FPPG and the 5th most TD receptions to TEs this season.

RB Rachaad White: It’s hard to ignore how inefficient Leonard Fournette has been this season -- averaging just 3.5 YPC and 7.0 YPR. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie White receive more opportunities. Last week, white’s 43% snap% was a season-high, and he has been targeted at least four times in three of the last four games. It’s a bit of a dart throw but worth a shot in GPPs.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Chris Godwin

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, WR Rashod Bateman: As is always the case with Lamar Jackson, you don’t *have* to run a double-stack if you play him at CPTN. But this Bucs secondary is affected by some significant injuries. Andrews is always a threat for a multi-touchdown performance and Bateman is the highest upside option on the outside.

*QB Tom Brady, WR Chris Godwin, TE Cade Otton: Standard CPTN Brady double stack.

*WR Chris Godwin, QB Tom Brady, RB Gus Edwards: Godwin provides a safe floor at the CPTN position, he just needs to bring in a touchdown to perhaps turn up in the optimal lineup. Roll with some correlation by stacking Brady in the FLEX and running it back with Edwards on the other side.

*WR Mike Evans, QB Tom Brady, WR Rashod Bateman: Same concept as above, just flipping Evans for Godwin and taking a Ravens receiver as the bring-back option.

*TE Mark Andrews, QB Lamar Jackson, K Justin Tucker: Assuming Andrews faces no limitations, this Baltimore-heavy stack gives you potential exposure to every Ravens point scored tonight.

*RB Gus Edwards, WR Chris Godwin, QB Tom Brady (Fade Lamar Jackson and/or Mark Andrews): This stack assumed Edwards punches in multiple touchdowns, like last week, and the Ravens' passing game continues to struggle. If Edwards lands in as the optimal captain, that will decrease the likelihood that Lamar and/or Andrews makes it into the optimal lineup in the FLEX. Consider including a “Brady + pass catcher” stack in the FLEX in any CPTN Edwards lineups.

*K Justin Tucker, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Mike Evans: This is the “Justin Tucker goes 5-for-5 on field goals in a 22-13 win over Brady and the struggling Bucs” lineup.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Lamar Jackson MORE than 10.0 Rush Attempts

Cade Otton MORE than 33.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!