High winds and two limited offenses may lead to a low-scoring affair on Thursday night. We'll still look for the best options to consider in this AFC North primetime showdown!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5) | 38.5 O/U

PIT: 17.0 implied point total | CLE: 21.5 implied point total

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: PIT - 16, CLE - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Browns, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Steelers, 5-1 Browns

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Nick Chubb: This is the sort of Thursday Night Football game we’re used to being exposed to. This is trending towards an ugly low-scoring game, and to the surprise of no one, this game carries the lowest O/U out of any week three NFL match-up. To make matters worse, there are 20 mph winds expected throughout the evening in Cleveland. With that said, this has all the makings of a “ground and pound, grind it out” offensive game flow. Despite splitting snaps nearly 50/50 with Kareem Hunt through two weeks, Chubb has handled 20+ touches in each game. The Steelers defense allows only 4.0 YPC (10th lowest), but under the surface stats, they rank 18th in rush DVOA. Behind a stout O-Line, Chubb is averaging 3.7 yards before contact and he should operate as the engine to this Browns offense on Thursday night.

WR Diontae Johnson: It’s hard to trust any receiver when Mitchell Trubisky is the guy throwing them the ball, but the Steelers are likely to be playing from behind, and Diontae Johnson is the clear-cut WR1 in this Steelers offense. He owns a 31.4% TGT% and has seen double-digit targets in both games this season. The Browns have also allowed the 5th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, where Johnson has aligned on all but 4% of his routes.

QB Jacoby Brissett: Neither QB in this game will instill much excitement, especially when you roll one out as your captain. High winds may also induce less passing overall. But the Steelers coaching staff isn’t oblivious that the Browns will want to run the ball with their powerful 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Some favorable coverage looks could be available for Brissett, and this is a Steelers defense that has allowed 590 yards passing through two games (4th most in NFL). Brissett also showcased some rushing value last week when he ran for 43 yards on six attempts. It’s not something he often does, but the main takeaway is that he is a capable runner, which is always a nice bonus from a QB.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Kareem Hunt: Hunt has handled a 52% snap% this season, which is just a hair below Chubb’s 53%. The main difference is Hunt’s 15.0 touches/gm compared to Chubb’s 21.5 touches/gm. It’s still solid volume for Hunt, and, again, with those high winds in play, this game figures to stay primarily on the ground with plenty of short dump-off passes to be had as well. Hunt would be the preferred pass-catching back over Chubb, and if any sort of downfield passing attack is ineffective, Hunt may pick up some extra targets.

RB Najee Harris: The results have been awful up to this point, but the volume is going to be there for Harris, who is coming off of a 15-carry, six-target game in week two. It’s been tough sledding for Harris, who has only averaged 2.2 yards before contact and 2.9 YPC behind a bad Steelers O-Line. But those six targets from last week are encouraging, and I would fully expect him to have a five-target floor in this sort of game environment. He succeeded in his two games against this Browns defense in 2021 when he combined for 279 yards rushing on 54 carries (5.2 YPC) and added six catches for 47 yards while scoring two TDs. The Steelers did win both of those games, so perhaps they’ll go back to the well and feed Harris with as many touches as he can handle.

Browns D/ST: Despite being -4.5 point favorites and the Steelers possessing only a 17.0 implied point total, the Browns are somewhat surprisingly the cheaper D/ST in this game, which is a bit of a rarity when it comes to showdown pricing as it relates to somewhat sizable betting favorites. Mitchell Trubisky has been awful, and if they manage to keep Najee Harris in check on the ground, things could get really ugly, really fast for the Steelers offense. There is some realistic double-digit fantasy point upside for the Browns defense here.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Cade York: You see the likelihood of “20 mph winds” in this game, and you may not jump at the opportunity to roster a kicker. However, the winds are expected to be blowing NNW. Wind forecasts can always change, but if that is the case, it would mean that they’ll mostly be blowing in the direction of a kicker’s face or at their back in FirstEnergy Stadium, depending on which way their offense is moving the ball. That makes rostering a kicker much more tolerable. In York’s case, he can boom it. He’s made 5-of-5 FGA already this season, including a 58-yarder, though he did miss one of his PATs last week. Regardless, he would be the preferred kicker to roster in this game, though Steelers K Chris Boswell has already drilled a couple of 50+ yarders as well this season.

TE Harrison Bryant: Despite playing on 47% of snaps compared to David Njoku’s 91% snap% in two games, Bryant has commanded more targets than Njoku (8-to-6). The Browns have run 2+ TE sets on 43% of their plays, so Bryant will be on the field quite a bit and could stand to benefit from a low aDOT passing attack which both offenses may implement in this game.

TE Pat Freiermuth: The second-year tight end isn’t an incredibly cheap option, but he has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise anemic Steelers offense. He went 5-75-0 on 10 targets in week one, and while he wasn’t as efficient with his receptions last week, he still managed a respectable 4-22-1 receiving line on seven targets. Diontae Johnson will likely be Cleveland’s defensive focus on Pittsburgh pass plays, and Freiermuth’s 6.2-yard aDOT indicates that he is being targeted on short-to-intermediate routes where the chance for completions is higher.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

RB Kareem Hunt

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Nick Chubb, Browns D/ST, K Cade York: It’s not sexy, but this CPTN Chubb stack with the Browns D/ST and K Cade York may very well account for all of the actual points scored (for the Browns) in this game.

*WR Diontae Johnson, QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Amari Cooper: With this stack, we’re assuming a couple of things: 1. The high winds end up having less of an impact on this game. 2. Trubisky plays decently well and peppers his best receiving weapon with 10-15 targets. It’s feasible.

*QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper, TE Harrison Bryant: Standard CPTN Brissett double-stack.

*RB Kareem Hunt, TE Pat Freiermuth, QB Mitchell Trubisky (Fade Nick Chubb): Deploying Hunt at CPTN is an interesting strategy on this showdown slate because the majority of folks will gravitate towards Chubb. But Hunt could easily come away as the top overall fantasy player in this game, especially if he lucks out on the TDs and if some additional targets are funneled his way. With Chubb projected to be 60+% owned, fading him in any lineup already goes a long way in setting yourself apart from the crowd.

*RB Najee Harris, QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper: As mentioned above, Najee Harris did have some tremendous success against this Browns defense in both games last season. If the Steelers do get up on the scoreboard, it’ll likely be due to Harris having a big day. So, we’ll run it back with a Brissett/Cooper stack in the flex.

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Analysis: The general feeling is that both offenses in this game will rely on the ground game and the short passing attack. Harris handled a career-high 28 carries against the Browns in week 17 of last season and tied his second-most carries with 26 rushes against them in week 8. A foot injury forced Harris out of the game in week one after just 10 carries but he returned fully healthy last week and was given 15 carries against the Patriots. 14+ rush attempts should be well within his wheelhouse on Thursday night.

As far as Hunt’s receptions go, at worst this seems like it’ll be a push on 2.0 receptions but the over has a high chance of hitting. Dating back to the start of last season, Hunt has at least two receptions in 8-of-10 games and he’s been on the field essentially just as much as Nick Chubb thus far this season. With the high winds expected in this game, we should see a few extra dump-off passes to the running backs and Hunt is the preferred receiver over Chubb.

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That will wrap us up with the TNF edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!