The stage is set for a frigid primetime showdown in Green Bay with Derrick Henry and the 6-3 Titans traveling to face off with Aaron Rodgers and the 4-6 Packers, who are coming off of their biggest win of the season over the Cowboys in week 10. Let's dig into some DFS plays, showdown strategies, and player props to target for tonight's primetime action!

By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter and LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3) | 41 O/U

TEN: 19.0 Implied Points | GB: 22.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: K Randy Bullock - OUT, WR Romeo Doubs - OUT, WR Randall Cobb - IR (expected to be activated ahead of Thursday’s game)

Score Prediction: TEN - 22, GB - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Packers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Titans

SICScore/Field View 👩‍⚕️🩺

via sicscore.com

Titans Defense / Packers Offense

Packers Defense / Titans Offense

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Derrick Henry: It’s going to be CHILLY in Green Bay tonight where temps will be in the mid-20s and, with the wind chill factor, it will feel closer to the mid-teens. Derrick Henry is already the most dominant downhill runner in the league but there is a direct correlation between Henry’s rushing average in freezing cold temps. For his career, he has averaged nearly two yards per carry MORE in cold weather. He missed most of the second half of last season due to injury, but if we look back at the final seven games of his 2020 campaign, he had rushing yardage totals of 133 yards, 178 yards, 60 yards (outlier), 215 yards, 147 yards, 98 yards, and 250 yards. I can guarantee that no one on the Packers' defense is looking forward to having to tackle Henry tonight. The Packers rank 30th in rush DVOA and have allowed 28.3 DKFPPG to RBs at home this season.

QB Aaron Rodgers: It’s been a turbulent season for Rodgers and the Packers but, despite attempting just 20 passes in week 10, he returned his best fantasy point total of the season with a 20.36 FP performance against a good Cowboys defense. It was his first three-touchdown game of the year and the emerging connection with WR Christian Watson (who caught all three TD passes last week) may be the spark that this Green Bay passing attack has needed. Even without a stellar set of receiving weapons, Rodgers has consistently provided a solid fantasy floor, scoring between 15.76 and 20.36 fantasy points in 8-of-10 games this season. The Titans are also a heavy pass funnel defense -- they are very stout against the run (1st in rush DVOA), which has led to an NFL-high 76.2% of yards allowed against them to come via the pass.

WR Christian Watson: We definitely need to temper expectations, but Watson profiled as a big-play receiver even before the 107-yard, three-touchdown breakout last week. Rookie WRs rarely find instant success in the NFL and Watson has had some trouble staying healthy this season, which are both factors that can explain the slow start he had this season. Watson’s eight targets against Dallas represented a 42.1% TGT% but, more notably, he owned an astronomical 73.5% share of Green Bay’s total air yards in that game. He’s likely going to be boom or bust, but he’s clearly the receiver with the most raw upside in this game, which makes him a prime captain selection, albeit a risky one. As mentioned above with Rodgers, the Titans’ defense funnels production to the passing game and they have allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Aaron Jones: I’m not a big fan of utilizing Aaron Jones at captain considering Derrick Henry is just $400 more expensive on DraftKings. However, that does make him a clear contrarian captain candidate since he will receive much less ownership. I’d have no issues with Jones as a FLEX play given his potential for 20+ touches with strong touchdown equity. As mentioned, this Titans run defense has been stellar (1st in rush DVOA) but one could argue that they have not faced the stiffest of RB competition overall. If we look back to week one, Saquon Barkley was able to dice up the Titans to the tune of 194 total yards and a touchdown -- good for 36.4 DKFP. I doubt we’ll see that sort of game out of Aaron Jones but he has netted at least 22.7 DKFP in three of the last four games.

WR Allen Lazard: The three-touchdown Christian Watson game vastly overshadowed Lazard’s pedestrian four-target, three-catch, 45-yard performance in week 10. However, Lazard has operated as the default WR1 for the Packers in most games this year and he leads the team in targets (55), receiving yards (472), air yards (680), and receiving touchdowns (5). He also owns a team-high 24.4% redzone TGT%. The fact that defenses will now have to respect multiple Packers WRs and not simply key in on Lazard could be a good thing. Christian Watson’s speed can take the top off the defense while Lazard may find more room to operate on intermediate routes -- however, Lazard has been known to be an effective downfield receiver as well so don’t expect Watson to draw all of the deep targets.

WR Treylon Burks: The Titans average just 148.2 passing YPG (ranks 31st) and their clear intent is to just pound opposing defense with Derrick Henry as much as possible. However, Burks, the No. 18 overall pick in this year’s draft, is the most talented Titans receiver and it will be just a matter of time before he has a breakout performance. After missing four games with a toe injury, Burks returned to action last week, though he played just 56% of snaps and caught 3-of-6 targets for a pedestrian 24 yards. We can expect Burks to play more snaps and be more involved in the game plan this week and he is the type of receiver who can take any catch to the house on a big play. It’s not an exciting nor overly productive passing attack, but the fact that QB Ryan Tannehill heads into this game without an injury designation bodes well for the Titans receivers.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Robert Tonyan: Like most tight ends not named Travis Kelce, the floor for Tonyan is rather low. However, he is the current receptions leader for the Packers, with 39 catches on the year, and he draws a nice match-up with a Titans defense that allows the 3rd most YPG to opposing TEs.

K Mason Crosby OR K Josh Lambo: These won't be ideal kicking conditions in Green Bay tonight (frigid temps with 10-15 mph winds) but the 41-point total tells us we are likely to see more field goal attempts than touchdowns. Lambo is filling in for the injured Randy Bullock for at least this week, so if I were going to take one kicker from this game, it’s likely going to be Crosby since the longtime Packer is very familiar with these kinds of Lambeau Field conditions.

Titans D/ST: Let’s not pretend that one unlikely win over the Cowboys instantly takes away all of the previous Packers' offensive struggles. Neither offense is expected to light it up tonight and, despite being banged up, the Titans' defense has shown a lot of tenacity in recent weeks. Over their last four games, they have accumulated 16 sacks and six turnovers while allowing just 12.5 PPG -- that includes holding the mighty Chiefs offense to 20 points in a narrow week nine overtime loss. If I’m taking one defense in this game, give me the team that doesn’t have to get battered by Derrick Henry all game.

WR Randall Cobb: It looks like Cobb has a strong chance to be active for tonight’s game after spending the last four weeks on the IR with an ankle injury. He is the stone minimum $200 on DraftKings and should step right back into a healthy snap share as the Packers' primary slot receiver. Needless to say, he will not need to do much to pay off this price tag and it easily allows for nearly unlimited roster flexibility.

Thursday Night Football TD Call 🏈

WR Treylon Burks

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Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Derrick Henry, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Randall Cobb: As discussed earlier, cold weather + Derrick Henry = huge success (usually). Even with the Titans strolling into Green Bay as +3 underdogs, using Henry as your captain tonight makes unlimited sense, but he’s gonna cost ya a hefty CPTN price of $17,400. So, let’s get Rodgers in there in the FLEX and stack him with Randall Cobb, who is nearly free on DraftKings at the $200 minimum. This stack leaves an average of $7,333 for your three remaining FLEX plays -- plenty of leeway there!

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Christian Watson, WR Allen Lazard: Standard CPTN Rodgers doublestack. Can he build on his three-touchdown performance last week? Here’s to hoping (at least when it comes to this three-man Packers stack). The best way to attack the Titans' defense is through the air, after all.

*WR Christian Watson, QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Derrick Henry: We’ll soon find out how much additional confidence Watson’s week 10 performance (4-107-3) instilled in Aaron Rodgers. If he is now viewed as the Packers’ WR1, then he owns surefire optimal captain upside. Risky? No doubt. But sometimes ya gotta risk it for the biscuit in these showdown GPPs.

*RB Aaron Jones + Fade RB Derrick Henry: Aaron Jones being priced just barely under Derrick Henry will lead to much, much lower ownership to land on Jones, particularly at captain. Whether it be in the captain slot or the FLEX, Henry is going to flirt with 90+% ownership even in GPPs tonight. Rolling out Jones at captain while fading Henry (in hopes of a down game) will instantly provide massive leverage in contrarian GPP builds.

*WR Allen Lazard, QB Aaron Rodgers, Fade WR Christian Watson: In this stack, we assume that Lazard bounces back after a down week and shows that he is still Rodgers’ preferred receiving threat. Simultaneously, we’ll fade Christian Watson in this stack as many people look to chase his week 10 ceiling game.

*WR Treylon Burks, QB Ryan Tannehill, TE Robert Tonyan: Anyone who watched Burks in college knows what type of playmaker he can be at the NFL level. Per his NFL scouting report, Burks ranked in the 97th percentile on short receiving, 99th percentile on intermediate routes, and 100th percentile as a deep threat. He’s a big 6’3” target with freakish athleticism. Unfortunately, his rookie season has been hampered by a stint on the IR and lackluster QB play. So, in this stack (which I would only roll out in GPPs), we’re banking on Tannehill having his best game of the season and Burks ripping off a breakout performance. Anything is possible in these primetime games.

*WR Randall Cobb + Any studs you want in the FLEX: Who doesn’t love a $300 captain build that is actually viable? Cobb is expected to be activated off of the IR and suit up for tonight’s game. The veteran WR’s best game of the season came in week five against the Giants where he caught 7-of-13 targets for 99 yards. Yes, it is quite unlikely, but if he has another game like that, he may just end the night as the optimal captain considering you can jam in just about any number of players you’d like in the FLEX.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick "Power Play" I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these prop parlays have been treating us pretty well overall this season so let's keep it rolling! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Derrick Henry MORE than 100.5 Rush Yards

Aaron Rodgers MORE than 1.5 Passing TDs

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That will wrap us up with today's "Primetime Preview" edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!