Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

Tag me in the LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Welcome back football fans to the final edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon for the 2018-2019 NFL season. As bitter sweet as it may be, we have just two singular days left that will consist of meaningful football -- the AFC & NFC Championships this Sunday and then, of course, the Super Bowl two weeks later. Then we have to sludge through what feels like an eternity of an off-season. We'll get through it together, guys. Don't worry. Alexa, play Babyface - "When Can I See You Again"... 😔

So anyway, let me ask you, are you a believer in the “defense wins championships” mantra? If so, you may want to ditch that belief for at least another season (sorry Bears fans). The top four offenses, on a points per game basis, are the only teams that remain competing for a trip to Super Bowl LIII. In their regular season match-ups these teams had plenty of offensive fireworks. The Saints and Rams combined for 80 points back in week 9 during a 45-35 New Orleans victory. The 83 points scored in one of the games of the year between the Patriots and Chiefs in week 6, where New England emerged victorious 43-40, cannot be forgotten either.

Can we expect the same sort of high-scoring theatrics this Sunday? Time will tell. But for now, both game totals rest comfortably in the mid-50’s. The latest lines at the time of this writing are as followed:

- LAR @ NO (-3.5) | 57 O/U

- NE @ KC (-3) | 54.5 O/U

Currently 54% of public bets are on the Rams to cover +3.5 and 57% on the over. 54% are liking Kansas City to cover -3 as well as 58% on the over. There was previous concern that the game in Kansas City would be exposed to extremely frigid temperatures but the latest forecasts now predict that an “arctic blast” will be avoided. It looks like it will be cold -- around 30°F throughout -- but nothing historically freezing or any sort of conditions that most of these guys aren't used to playing in. From a DFS perspective, with only two games to choose from, it will be very difficult to have unique lineups. My recommendation for most people: go light with your bankroll and mostly just play to add a little bit more of an additional entertainment factor to your football watching Sunday. Of course, I wish for y’all to take down some GPPs but you’ll probably need to get super “creative” in order for that to happen. Primarily, I'm just saying to not treat this like a regular season NFL slate -- the risk is just too high. So, with just two games, this will be a short and sweet newsletter so let’s jump into my favorite picks for Sunday.

Quarterbacks to Target

Drew Brees (DK: $5.9k | FD: $8.8k) vs. LAR

I’m only highlighting one quarterback this week. If I were to make just a single lineup for this Sunday, Brees would be my guy. I hit on him here last week but, plain and simple, he just excels at home. He is averaging +8.6 FPPG at home as opposed to on the road and he threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns against the Rams in their regular season clash. The Rams also held the Cowboys to 50 total yards rushing last week and, while we can’t necessarily count on that same sort of success to replicate itself against Kamara and Ingram, I’m looking to entrust the Saints’ passing attack a bit more as Sean Payton should be looking to carve up this Rams' secondary. ESPN and all the other sports outlets have probably talked your ear off and overplayed that Marcus Peters soundbite but I’m a believer in the theory that the Saints will be looking to exert dominance through the air as their top priority.

Running Backs to Target

Damien Williams (DK: $6.4k | FD: $7.2k) vs. NE

As wild as this would have seemed a few weeks ago with picking him over guys like Gurley and Kamara, I’m going with Damien Williams as my go-to running back when looking to spend up at the position. While I think both Gurley and Kamara should fall within DFS consideration, Williams sets himself apart from the rest by not exactly competing for touches in his respective backfield. He handled 30 total touches last week and accumulated 155 yards of offense to go along with a touchdown. In comparison, Gurley saw 18 touches (118 total yards, one TD) while splitting work with CJ Anderson and Kamara garnered 20 touches (106 total yards) while continuing his workload share with Mark Ingram. Expect for the Chiefs to utilize Williams even more heavily than they did with Kareem Hunt in their week 6 match-up with New England. In that game, Hunt saw 10 carries for 80 yards and caught five passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. That's 15 touches... half of what he saw last week. Of course Hunt was very productive in that game but I feel like a 20 touch floor for Williams is a safe estimate. Spencer Ware is practicing fully and Darrel Williams could remain a factor but Damien Williams has done enough over the last couple of months to set himself apart and earn the trust of Andy Reid and this coaching staff. This is his backfield to lose. The Patriots have allowed 27.7 FPPG to running backs on the road this season.

James White (DK: $5.4k | FD: $7.7k) @ KC

The Patriots were in control of the game against the Chargers for essentially start to finish and James White still saw an astounding 17 targets -- catching 15 for 97 yards. When it comes to the post-season, the Patriots clearly scheme to utilize White and, for the most part, no one is stopping him from putting up impressive numbers in the box score. Sony Michel (24 carries, 129 yards, three touchdowns) put up the best game of his rookie campaign last week and should certainly see a healthy workload himself. But from a fantasy floor perspective, I’m entrusting White’s involvement to continue to stay strong. When you consider the fact that the Patriots, as underdogs, could very easily trail for much of this game, it only bolsters my confidence in White even more. The Chiefs also allow 5.5 receptions per game and 52.6 yards receiving to running backs as well. All signs point towards another nice outing for him here.

Rex Burkhead (DK: $3.4k | FD: $5.5k) @ KC

When taking Burkhead in lineups you’re really just hoping he somehow “vultures” two touchdowns -- which in the Patriots offense is well within the realm of possibilities. He only saw 11 offensive snaps last week (13% snap rate) but received five touches and also found the endzone. When Burkhead is on the field there is a very strong chance that New England is looking to get him the ball and they really seem to love him in various redzone packages. It’s definitely more of a dart throw selecting Rex but, as I’ll state the obvious once more, there’s only so many contrarian options on a two game slate.

Wide Receivers to Target

Michael Thomas (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.8k) vs. LAR

Yeah, he’ll probably be 65+% owned, perhaps 90% in cash, but I want every bit of this juicy click-baity Marcus Peters match-up narrative. In week nine, 146 of Michael Thomas’ franchise record setting 211 receiving yards came against routes ran against Marcus Peters -- that includes his 72 yard touchdown catch-and-run. The passing game runs through this man and Drew Brees trusts him as much as I’ve seen any quarterback trust a receiver. It’s just too difficult to imagine a game script where Thomas just isn’t force-fed 12+ targets. In a game where the Saints only scored 20 points last week, Thomas still accrued 38.1 (DraftKings) points. The Rams will apply more pressure on the scoreboard than the Eagles managed.

Julian Edelman (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.9k) @ KC

I’m sorry if these picks seem far too obvious… please stop yawning. It’s just hard to go away from what simply makes sense. Edelman is the gear that makes this Pats offense churn. When a key first down is needed or a pivotal catch across the middle is called for, Tom Brady trusts Edelman implicitly. Edelman is also a top option inside the enemy’s 20-yard-line and he saw the second most redzone targets (19) on the team this season behind only James White (22). He caught 14 of those targets for four touchdowns and a 73.7% catch rate. Kansas City was the second worst defense this season in terms of redzone catch percentage, as they allowed a whopping 82.2% of redzone passes to be caught. If I know of this weakness in the Chiefs’ defense, then Bill Belichick and Tom Brady definitely do as well. With Rob Gronkowski seemingly in more of a blocking role these days, expect Edelman to perhaps be “the guy” when New England approaches scoring territory to go along with his typically heavy chain-moving volume in the middle of the field.

Brandin Cooks (DK: $5.3k | FD: $6.9k) @ NO

While every key player in these games is going to carry significant ownership, I could see Cooks going a bit under-owned in comparison to his potential upside. Cooks hasn’t eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark in his last six games but I believe some of the blame can fall on Jared Goff and his drop off in production since losing Cooper Kupp. Credit @ChrisMeaney on Twitter for this stat: “Jared Goff averaged 329 yards passing in 8 games with Cooper Kupp, compared to 248 in 9 games without him. He has thrown 1 or 0 TD's in 5 of his last 6 games.” However, something has to give soon with an offensive system this prolific and head coach Sean McVay and Jared Goff should be looking to correct inefficiencies in their passing offense sooner rather than later considering what is at stake this week. Cooks navigated this Saints secondary very well in their regular season match-up -- catching six of eight targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. Similar success could easily be had this Sunday.

Ted Ginn Jr. (DK: $4.3k | FD: $5.3k) vs. LAR

Ginn didn’t necessarily have a huge day in the box score last week, however he was still second on the team with seven targets. But he was also a slight Brees under-throw away from having a 65-yard touchdown on the first play of the game against the Eagles. I’ve watched that play about a dozen times and Ginn absolutely hit that elusive next level gear that only a handful of NFL players possess. The Eagles’ Cre’von LeBlanc made a great quick “oh sh*t, this man is going deep” read on that route and turned around in time to sprint deep enough to make a play on the (under-thrown) ball. But he was absolutely beat on the route in general. Point being, Ginn looks 100% and the majority of the focus is going to fall in Michael Thomas’ direction. Ginn is that boom/bust type of guy that can make or break your lineup if you’re willing to take the risk.

Tight Ends to Target

Tyler Higbee (DK: $2.6k | FD: $4.5k) @ NO

The general tight end formula this week is fairly straightforward: try to jam in Kelce. Go with Gronk if you’re feeling frisky. After that, good luck buddy. Higbee would be my top contrarian tight end to roll out apart from those two and he would allow for a ton of roster flexibility. Higbee played on 71% of the Rams’ snaps last week (compared to Gerald Everett’s 42%) and was tied for third on the team with four targets -- catching two for 30 yards. If he sees the same sort of snap count this week in a game they may need to go pass happy in, then lucking into a touchdown to go along with three or four catches is all you’d need for this play to pay off nicely. It’s safe by no means but definitely a way to be different on this slate.

Defensive Breakdown

New England Patriots (DK: $2.1k | FD: $4k) @ KC

Honestly, it seems rude of DraftKings and FanDuel to even make us pick a defense this week. Mostly joking but considering these are literally the four best offenses in the NFL competing this week, it makes sense to just go with the cheapest option on both sites with the Patriots. I would have selected the Saints DST to highlight but the loss of DT Sheldon Rankins to a torn Achilles is being made less of a big deal than it actually is in my opinion. At least with selecting the Pats DST you get a defense in the lower total game of the day going against Patrick Mahomes who, despite his absurd production this season, is still a 23-year-old fella playing in the biggest and most pressure-filled game of his life against one of the best dynasties ever constructed in all of sports. I promise I’m not a Pats fan but this makes plenty of sense. Plus, we’re all still waiting on Andy Reid to goof up… as is tradition.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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Thanks for everyone who took the time to read these newsletters this season. I very much enjoyed it. Have fun watching these games! Should be a couple of good ones!

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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