Top DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Plays | Divisional Round Edition 🏆

January 11, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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Welcome one and all to a very exciting weekend of football and one of my personal favorites of the year -- the NFL Divisional Playoff Round! We are down to the final eight teams remaining that are vying for a Super Bowl LIII appearance and you can find reasons to count essentially every team left surviving in as a legitimate contender. We should expect a bit more offensive fireworks this week, as opposed to last week, since we have the six top offenses in the league (on a PPG basis) ready to kick off. As such, it is no surprise that every game is carrying a hefty total. The current totals and spreads, along with game times break down as follows:

- IND @ KC (-5.5) | 57 O/U | Saturday, 4:35 PM ET

- DAL @ LAR (-7) | 49.5 O/U | Saturday, 8:15 PM ET

- LAC @ NE (-4) | 46.5 O/U | Sunday, 1:05 PM ET

- PHI @ NO (-8) | 51 O/U | Sunday, 4:40 PM ET

The DFS pricing of many players, particularly on DraftKings, seems a little loose this week (especially at running back) -- perhaps in an effort to draw in more casual players and make them feel more confident about their lineups but, at the same time, finding value is quite tough on the surface. FanDuel is definitely tighter on salaries overall and you’ll need to be sharp as a tack on where you choose to pivot on your cheaper guys. With just four match-ups to select from, it will be tough to create unique tournament lineups and… this may sound cheesy, but I recommend giving each GPP lineup you make a “story” of sorts. Try to envision how you think these games will play out and what players will benefit from a particular game flow. As for cash games, I believe the approach will be pretty straightforward but you’ll certainly need to take a strong stance on some guys -- particularly among the fairly thin selection of viably “safe” low salary players. Now, let’s get some player breakdowns!

Quarterbacks to Target

Drew Brees (DK: $6.7k | FD: $8.7k) vs. PHI

When the playoffs roll around I am a firm believer in trusting teams, and especially quarterbacks, with veteran experience. Sure, Patrick Mahomes wowed us all this season with his rocket arm, wild impromptu play making ability, and weird froggy voice and he is certainly capable of having a stellar game this weekend. But if you’re spending up at the quarterback position you simply can not dismiss Drew Brees at home in the playoffs with multiple weeks to prepare. He has been otherworldly when playing in the Superdome. His average home stat line in seven games this season has been 26/34, 322 yards and 3 TDs -- an overall home completion percentage of 76.3% and he has thrown just one interception. He has a massive +10.4 FPPG plus/minus at home. He gets to sling it this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the third most passing yards per game and the same defense that he torched for 363 yards and four scores not all that long ago in week 11. As Brees nears the end of his illustrious career, look for him and Sean Payton to make a statement in these playoffs.

Tom Brady (DK: $5.6k | FD: $8.2k) vs. LAC

Sticking with the veteran approach, how can you not give some DFS consideration to Tom Brady playing in Foxborough in the postseason? Brady may have shown his age a bit this year but this is a guy that has thrown for either 300+ yards and/or three touchdowns in nine of his last eleven playoff games. And now arguably the greatest NFL head coach/quarterback duo of all time has had multiple weeks to game plan for a Chargers team that is once again having to play on the road across the country. The Chargers are, however, a trendy underdog in the public’s eye and over 60% of bets are going in the Chargers direction to cover +4 points. I'm really hoping the Chargers do actually keep this one close, causing Brady & Co. to stay aggressive for much/all of this game. One of my only hesitations for Brady finding success this Sunday is the potential trouble he may run into with a healthy Chargers pass rush which had seven sacks a week ago in Baltimore. Joey Bosa is several games into his return to action and completes a fierce pass rushing combo alongside Melvin Ingram. In a clean pocket this year, Brady completed 71.7% of his passes. Under pressure, his pass percentage dropped to 45.3%. If the Pats keep TB12’s jersey relatively clean, expect another strong playoff performance. 

Running Backs to Target

Todd Gurley II (DK: $8k | FD: $9k) vs. DAL

By the time Saturday’s primetime Rams vs. Cowboys game rolls around, Gurley will have been nearly a month removed from game action and has had plenty of time to heal up a formerly banged up knee. Gurley been removed from the injury report and Sean McVay has stated "He looks like Todd… he looks like the explosive, great back that we're used to seeing." The Cowboys did an excellent job last week limiting Seattle, the league's top rushing offense, to just 73 yards on the ground at 3.0 YPC. However, the Seahawks also seemed too dead-set on forcing the run for much of that game until it was a little too late. This Rams offense is a different sort of animal and is much more balanced. They also average an NFL leading 37.1 PPG at home this season. Expect Gurley to see his normal hefty workload and be heavily involved in the pass game as well. I wouldn’t sweat the threat of CJ Anderson stealing too many touches away from him unless this turns into a blowout very early on.

Alvin Kamara (DK: $7.3k | FD: $8.4k) vs. PHI

The Eagles have allowed the third most receptions (113 catches on 144 targets) to running backs this season. It’s no secret that Kamara is one of the most dynamic players in the league out of the backfield and he was the fourth-most targeted running back in the NFL this year. He leads the team with 28 redzone targets as well as 47 redzone rushes. He’s such a major part of this offense, especially in scoring territory, and the Saints have an implied total of 29.5 points. His chances at not just one but multiple touchdowns is about as high as any other skill position player on the board.

James White (DK: $4.9k | FD: $7.4k) vs. LAC

The pricing discrepancy on White between DraftKings and FanDuel is a bit strange, especially since FD is only half-PPR. So White obviously falls more into play on DraftKings but this is also a guy who has eight touchdowns in his last six playoff games. Also of note is even though Sony Michel vastly exceeds White in rush attempts (209 to 94), they are both averaging 4.5 YPC on the season. Michel will certainly get his share of carries and of course, a healthy Rex Burkhead only further muddles the waters when projecting the running back touch counts but… hey… this is the playoffs. And White is a certified veteran playmaker at this point and has shown up big in recent seasons in these vital games. As mentioned in Tom Brady’s section above, the Chargers are bringing a pretty fierce pass rush to Foxborough this week. If they’re consistently able to get pressure on Brady, White could benefit nicely from some extra short yardage dump-offs and screens to neutralize some aggressive Chargers' tendencies.

Darren Sproles (DK: $4.4k | FD: $5.4k) @ NO

I mentioned Sproles here last week as a cheaper running back to consider and, while it was unsurprisingly tough sledding against a vaunted Bears defense, he did lead all Eagles running backs with 15 touches on a 56% snap rate. His two catches on three targets against the Bears would also seem to be on the lower end of expectations this week as well since Philadelphia could easily find themselves playing from behind in a hurry. Also, if you’re looking to take a stroll down good ol' Narrative Street, you may remember that Sproles played three of his NFL seasons in New Orleans (2011-13) before coming to the Eagles. This week, once again, has the possibility of being his final career game if the Eagles cannot advance past the Saints. The motivation should definitely be there and with 15-touch potential, he could certainly provide you some value at his current DFS salaries and likely shouldn’t catch much ownership.

Nyheim Hines (DK: $3.3k | FD: $5.2k) @ KC

Well… zero touches on nine offensive snaps in the Colts’ previous game against the Texans certainly shouldn’t foster much confidence in any sort of stable workload for Hines this week, would it? Of course not. But this is simply a contrarian play at its core. The playoffs are not often a place for rookies to see prominent or expanded roles but Hines was a key factor in several games this season for Indianapolis, particularly as a pass catcher. He was the 7th most targeted running back in the NFL (81 targets with 63 receptions)… ahead of guys like Todd Gurley and David Johnson. When looking at last week, you also have to factor in that the Colts basically controlled that game against the Texans from start to finish and they were just simply able to feed Marlon Mack as many touches as he could handle. There wasn’t much need to utilize a pass catching specialist and risk injury to Hines who checks in at 5’8” and 198 lbs. One might predict that a different sort of game flow may come about when traveling to Arrow Head to face this absurdly dangerous Chiefs' offense. The Chiefs also give up 55.9 receiving YPG to running backs this season and the fourth most points overall to opposing RBs. Hines is definitely an interesting GPP flyer for me in this game which has the highest total on the slate.

Wide Receivers to Target

Michael Thomas (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.4k) vs. PHI

Thomas will check in as the most expensive receiver on the board this week. You’ll need to get creative to fit him in lineups but we’re already well-versed on how much more prolific his quarterback has been at home this season and as such, Thomas is averaging +7.2 FPPG when playing in New Orleans. He also gets the friendliest match-up of the week that a receiver could hope for as the Eagles give up 47.6 FPPG to opposing WRs when on the road. Even if Philly looks to focus heavily on stopping Thomas, I have serious doubts they’re really all that capable of doing so. Take a look at last week when they faced the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky was committed to delivering the ball to his number one guy, Allen Robinson. Robinson hauled in 10 of 13 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. At the risk of stating the obvious, Brees and Thomas are both superior players respectively than Trubisky and Robinson. Of course this Saints' offense has more offensive weaponry at its disposal to spread the ball to in comparison to the Bears but Thomas’ average stat line at home this season is 10 targets, 8.5 receptions, 102.8 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. Very solid.

Julian Edelman (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.6k) vs. LAC

Things get a little murky in the mid to high-mid price range of wide receivers in terms of my own personal confidence that I have in the majority of those guys. However, just by simply looking at the game logs, Julian Edelman brings a ton of consistency and a solid floor to the table and should be a near lock for a double digit fantasy output this week. You can’t really safely predict touchdowns for anyone but what you can predict for Edelman is a high likelihood of 10+ targets -- a mark he has hit in six of the last nine games. Even though Josh Gordon played a different role in the receiving game than Edelman, his absence from the offense along with his 17% target share has a ripple effect in further production being required from other Pats receivers. With Rob Gronkowski maybe not appearing to be quite the player he used to be, you can count on Edelman, who has a team-leading 25% target share, to be Brady’s go-to guy. The match-up that Edelman will draw with Chargers' slot corner Desmond King II is not a pretty one, however. But Belichick and Brady should find ways to get Edelman the ball regardless and I just have a hard time imagining King shuts him down.

Golden Tate (DK: $4.6k | FD: $5.9k) @ NO

The jury is still out on just how integrated Golden Tate is into this Eagles offense after the mid-season trade but I think it should speak volumes that he was the receiver targeted on the 4th down go-ahead touchdown in last week’s wildcard game. I expect the Saints to focus on stopping Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz first and foremost which could open up some extra opportunities for Tate. He also has a favorable match-up with slot corner PJ Williams who has performed better in the latter half of the season but is still in danger of getting outclassed by a receiver with Tate’s quickness and route running ability.

Ted Ginn Jr. (DK: $4.4k | FD: $4.5k) vs. PHI

Someone at FanDuel may have goofed a bit by keeping Ginn at the bare minimum salary. Brees wasted no time reigniting their QB/WR connection by sending eight targets Ginn’s way in week 16 in his first game returning from injured reserve. He was understandably held out of a meaningless game in week 17 but should be a full go this week as the Saints premiere deep threat.

Michael Gallup (DK: $4k | FD: $5.7k) @ LAR

With Allen Hurns going down with a gruesome ankle injury versus the Seahawks, the Cowboys will really need the rookie Gallup to produce in an expanded role this week. While he did only catch two passes last week, one was for a redzone touchdown and he finished second on the team in targets. We should expect Gallup to see around 80% of snaps and while Ezekiel Elliot and Amari Cooper are the obvious primary playmakers for Dallas, someone else will certainly need to step up as a viable threat (especially if Cole Beasley is unable to suit up as well). In their last nine games, the Rams check in at 26th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed to opposing wide receivers (172.9 YPG). The opportunity should be there -- it’s all just a question of if he and Dak Prescott can get a connection going and improve on Gallup’s 48.5% season long catch rate.

Tight Ends to Target

Travis Kelce (DK: $7k | FD: $7.5k) vs. IND

Well, I didn’t want to go the full newsletter without highlighting a Chiefs player -- that just seems unwise. Kelce cooled off from a fantasy perspective over the final few weeks of the regular season, by his standards, but that’s largely due to the touchdowns just not coming his way. He’s going to see upwards of 10+ targets regardless and has multi-touchdown upside any given week. This match-up with the Indianapolis' defense, however, is one that has yielded the most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season. If you can afford the premium price tag on him, Kelce can absolutely be a nice way to make a bit of a contrarian lineup build.

Rob Gronkowski (DK: $4.6k | FD: $6.2k) vs. LAC

If you want to go the safest and most reasonable route at tight end without paying for Kelce, then the touchdown maker himself Eric Ebron (DK: $5.5k | FD: $6.6k) is probably your man and I wouldn’t blame you one bit. But let’s be real here… Gronk should be given at least some respect! I’m seeing a lot more interest from the general public falling in the direction of Blake Freakin’ Jarwin, for goodness sake, who is dealing with a high ankle sprain and is priced not all that far below Gronkowski. Gronk has had a couple weeks off to rest up and to perhaps hydrate up with some Natty Lights, so c’mon now! There’s upside to be had here at severely depressed ownership if you’re willing to take the leap.

Defensive Breakdown

Los Angeles Rams (DK: $3k | FD: $5k) vs. DAL

Dak Prescott has been the second most sacked quarterback this season after getting taken down 57 times behind the line of scrimmage. Now the 2018 NFL sack leader, Aaron Donald, will be gunning for him. The Rams also have four DST touchdowns at home this year and average two takeaways per game at home. This seems like the safest floor option when it comes to choosing a defense this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $2.5k | FD: $4.6k) vs. IND

I’m really not too keen on any of the road team DSTs in these match-ups. The Chiefs are the cheapest defense on either site that also happens to be playing at home. Luck hasn’t been sacked much at all this year, so there may be limited upside for the Chiefs DST in that category. However, what Luck may need to do is potentially throw for 50+ times, which just opens up the possibility for a fortuitous Chiefs pick six.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

Congrats to last week's freeroll winners!

1st: TheWalrus82 | 173.54 points

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3rd: Henderson9474 | 155.48 points

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That will wrap us up for the divisional round. I'm not entirely sure if this will be the final NFL newsletter of the season since there will only be two conference championship games and then the Super Bowl left. If so, I just want to thank everyone who took the time to read these! It's been an honor to cover NFL for LineStar and I've enjoyed doing it. In the mean time, I'll catch y'all in the NBA and PGA chats.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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