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Main Slate Rundown 📝

For the second Monday in a row, we’ll have a two-game primetime slate on our hands! A pair of 2-0 teams face off with the Eagles visiting the Buccaneers with a 7:15 ET kick-off. Meanwhile, for the 8:15 ET kick-off, the 1-1 Rams will visit the 0-2 Bengals who will be trying to find some sort of momentum to get their season headed in the right direction.

The focus of this NFL newsletter will be geared toward the two-game slate, as opposed to single-game/showdown slates, since that is where DFS sites are posting their big-money contests. As mentioned last week, on a short slate like this, it’s going to be difficult to be unique so, for large-field GPP purposes, don’t hesitate to leave a bit of salary on the table in some of your tournament lineups. Even leaving around $500 or so on the table will drastically boost your chances of having a unique non-duplicated lineup. On last week’s Monday two-game slate, the DraftKings perfect lineup had $4,600 worth of dead salary while the FanDuel perfect lineup had $6,800 left on the table. This just exemplifies the fact that you don’t need to squeeze every last bit of salary out of your two-game slate lineup builds. Anyhow, let’s get right into some DFS plays to consider! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

The safe QB plays are…

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | @ TB

Poor weather in week one led to a lackluster performance out of Hurts, but we saw a much more Jalen Hurts-like game in week two where he completed 78.3% of his passes for 193 yards and a TD while, more importantly, putting up 35 yards rushing on nine carries with two additional TDs. There may not be a more guaranteed play in football than the Eagles goal line Jalen Hurts QB sneak. The Philly O-line is absolutely elite and Hurts has no problems driving forward on those short yardage plays. The Bucs are also allowing 10.1 yards per completion, which is currently the 10th-highest mark in the NFL. I’m not sure if it’s the best spot for a ceiling performance, but Hurts is arguably the safest play at the position on this small slate.

Baker Mayfield, TB | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. PHI

If you’re looking to save some salary at QB, Baker Mayfield has looked like a competent starting QB through two games with the Bucs. He’s completing 69.1% of his passes and has also shown a willingness to run the football, averaging seven rush attempts per game. The match-up against Philly is interesting. Through two games, the Eagles' defense has been a complete pass funnel -- they’ve been stout on the ground but opposing QBs have found success against them through the air. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins averaged 340.0 pass YPG and 3.5 pass TDs/gm in their respective match-ups with the Eagles. Mayfield and the Bucs (+5.5 home underdogs) will likely need to stay aggressive throughout this game as they try to keep pace with an efficient Eagles offensive attack.

The risky, low-owned QB play is…

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAR

Burrow heads into this match-up with a “questionable” injury designation after re-aggravating a calf injury that he sustained in training camp. He does intend to suit up tonight, though we will have to wait for the final word on his availability closer to kick-off. If he does indeed play, he’s not going to be 100% and will likely lack any strong mobility outside of the pocket. SICscore.com (Sports Injury Central) is giving Burrow an 82/100 SICscore ahead of tonight’s game. If he can battle through the injury, we know that Burrow is capable of a massive performance, and he has some of the best skill-position players at his disposal. However, he may have trouble against a Rams secondary that has held opposing QBs to 159.0 pass YPG and 0.5 pass TDs/gm. That said, the Rams do rank 22nd in pass DVOA, so there will be better days to come for opposing QBs. Burrow makes for one of the riskiest plays on the slate, and he is certainly the riskiest of the four quarterbacks, but it’s a gamble that could pay off at low ownership (by two-game slate standards).

Running Backs to Consider

The safe RB plays are…

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. LAR

Mixon has handled 13 carries and has seen five targets in each of the Bengals’ first two games while also playing a healthy 71% of the snaps. Neither game worked out to allow an RB-friendly game script to develop, but Cincinnati does head into tonight’s game as 3-point home favorites. If the Bengals can control the pace of this game while maintaining a lead, Mixon should be in line for 20+ touches against a Rams defense that has allowed 5.35 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Joe Burrow’s hampered ability to scramble due to his calf injury may lead to some additional dump-off passes to Mixon as well.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.6k | @ CIN

Williams looked like the more impressive Rams RB in week one, which led to Cam Akers being a healthy scratch in week two against the 49ers. Akers has since been traded to the Vikings, and Williams picked up a massive 95% snap% and 24 carries + targets in week two. He’s locked into a bellcow RB workload and has excellent upside as a receiver following a 10-target game last week. The Bengals will have plenty of time to improve on the defensive front, but heading into the third game of the season, they rank 28th in rush DVOA.

The risky, low-owned RB plays are…

D’Andre Swift, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $8k | @ TB

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | @ TB

The only thing keeping Swift from being a “safe” RB play is based on the return of Kenneth Gainwell, who sat out last week’s contest with a rib injury which allowed Swift to dominate Eagles’ RB touches against the Vikings. Gainwell led the Eagles backfield in touches (18) and snaps (41 -- 62% snap%) in week one while Swift saw just one carry and two targets while playing a 29% snap%. However, Swift looked excellent running behind this dominant O-line last week, racking up 175 yards on 28 carries (6.3 YPC) and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets. There is no question in my mind that Swift is the better talent when compared to Gainwell, but the Eagles will, in all likelihood, continue to roll with a split backfield committee. RB Boston Scott (concussion/out) will not be available for this game, which does open up a few extra snaps for either Swift, Gainwell or perhaps even Rashaad Penny, who saw a light 12% snap% last week. While it may be tough to trust either primary Eagles’ RB, one of them is likely to have a strong game this evening.

Wide Receivers to Consider

The safe WR plays are…

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.8k | @ TB

Fellow Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k) has out-shined AJ Brown over the first two weeks of the season, but there is reason to believe that Brown will be the Eagles’ receiver who puts up a big game tonight. Brown has garnered one more target than Smith thus far and thus leads the team with a 30.8% target%. Also, only a third of Brown’s targets of 20+ yards have been deemed “on target” so the lack of big plays out of Brown could be blamed upon inaccurate throws from Jalen Hurts. Regardless, Brown will draw a great match-up if he is shadowed by Carlton Davis tonight. Davis, who is questionable for this game with a toe injury, has been targeted on 31% of routes ran against him and has given up 0.73 fantasy points per route covered. The Bucs as a team have allowed the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs, which is where Brown has run 80% of his routes.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | @ CIN

Nacua has taken the NFL and fantasy football community by storm in his first two career NFL games. Through two weeks, he has commanded an absurd 35 targets and a 39.3% target%. Those targets have led to an NFL record 25 receptions through a player’s first two games of their career, and 266 receiving yards. Nacua’s torrid receiving pace is, in all likelihood, unsustainable. But, for now, he’s Matthew Stafford’s top target and an absolute PPR stud.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. PHI

A banged-up Eagles secondary has surrendered the 5th most FPPG to WRs thus far this season. Evans, meanwhile, has shown excellent rapport with QB Baker Mayfield, which has led to a strong 28.1% target%, 12 receptions, 237 yards, and a touchdown. Evans has also laid claim to nearly half (46.8%) of the Bucs’ total air yards. We’ll likely see Eagles CB Darius Slay shadow Evans on his perimeter routes, but that’s far from the brutal WR/CB match-up that it used to be.

The risky, low-owned WR plays are…

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LAR

I’m not sure just how “low-owned” a stud receiver like Ja’Marr Chase will be on a small two-game slate. But, due to several factors, I do believe that many will choose to go away from him in lineups tonight. The primary reason would be centered around the health concerns of QB Joe Burrow (calf/questionable), who is expected to suit up but not operate at 100%. Chase is also the most expensive WR on the slate and he hasn’t put up more than 9.1 DKFP/6.6 FDFP in either game this season. However, he is a top-five NFL talent at his position and it’s only a matter of time before we see a monster game out of him. He should draw plenty of favorable coverage from Rams’ primary RCB Derion Kendrick, who has been the most targeted against Rams CB this season.

Tutu Atwell, LAR | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | @ CIN

Atwell has posted a pair of excellent games this season while playing on 86% of snaps, so it’s not as if he’ll go completely overlooked today. However, his 33% pOwn% on DraftKings and 27% pOwn% on FanDuel ranks him 7th among today’s WRs, so he’s not expected to be extremely chalky, again, by two-game slate standards. I also believe most folks will be hesitant to roster more than one Rams receiver in the same lineup unless they’re playing Matthew Stafford at QB. And, the one Rams receiver that people will gravitate toward is clearly going to be Puka Nacua. Atwell has also run quite a few routes out of the slot (34%), more so than Nacua (26%). The Bengals have been picked apart in the slot, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs through two weeks. Atwell also has a healthy 13.4-yard aDOT and has brought in 76.5% of his targets.

Olamide Zaccheaus, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | @ TB

Perhaps an under-the-radar injury note on this slate pertains to Eagles’ WR Quez Watkins, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. While Zaccheaus didn’t record a target last week, he ended up playing on 45% of snaps after Watkins was injured. Now, with a full week of practice with the ones, he should be on the field in most/all of three WR sets. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith dominate the targets in this offense, but if Zaccheaus is going to play roughly half of the offensive snaps, he’ll have some sneaky potential to put up solid numbers and possibly find his way to a touchdown in this potent Eagles offense.

Tight Ends to Consider

The safe TE play is…

Cade Otton, TB | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | vs. PHI

I’m not sure if there are any truly “safe” tight ends on this slate, but Otton sets up as a favorable option given his affordable price tags. Otton has rarely come off the field this season and owns a stout 97% snap%. In that time, he has run 61 routes, which is three more than WR Mike Evans and two fewer than WR Chris Godwin. Otton ranks third on the team in target share behind those guys but knowing that he runs just as many passing routes as Evans/Godwin means that the upside is there. Furthermore, the Eagles have been getting destroyed over the middle of the field by opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed, by far, the most FPPG to TEs and have already given up 17 receptions for 171 yards and three TDs to the position. Otton, of course, is nowhere near the talent of someone like TJ Hockenson, or even Hunter Henry -- the two primary TEs that the Eagles have faced this season. But that is also reflected in his low DFS salaries. I’d say a five-catch, 50-ish-yard performance is well within Otton’s wheelhouse in this match-up, and he’s not a bad bet to find the endzone at some point either.

The risky, low-owned TE play is…

Drew Sample, CIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. LAR

Irv Smith Jr. (hamstring) is officially doubtful to play tonight, which would open up a significant snap increase for backup TE Drew Sample. The snap breakdown for Bengals’ TEs thus far this season is as follows: Smith - 76 (66% snap%), Sample - 32 (28% snap%), Mitchell Wilcox - 9 (8% snap%). So Sample should be the clear beneficiary with Smith out. There has not been much production out of the Bengals’ tight end position this season, but the same could be said about every position in this offense. Sample should at least have the opportunity to have an impact in this game and could likely check in at sub-10% ownership.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safe: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.5k | @ TB

Pivot: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.8k | @ CIN

Touchdown Calls 🏈

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Monday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Cade Otton MORE than 6.5 Fantasy Score

Mike Evans + Puka Nacua MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!