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Main Slate Rundown 📝

We’ve got the rare two-game primetime slate on our hands today with a pair of divisional match-ups on deck as the Saints visit the Panthers and the Browns visit the Steelers. The focus of this NFL newsletter will be geared toward the two-game slate, as opposed to single-game/showdown slates, since that is where DFS sites are posting their big-money contests. On a short slate like this, it’s going to be difficult to be unique so, for large-field GPP purposes, don’t hesitate to leave a bit of salary on the table in some of your tournament lineups. Even leaving $300-$500 or so on the table will drastically boost your chances of having a unique non-duplicated lineup. Let’s get right into some DFS plays to consider!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

The safe QB play is…

Derek Carr, NO | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | @ CAR

Neither game today is expected to be a barn burner with both match-ups featuring a < 40 point over/under. The QB selection is also far from enticing, but Derek Carr does set up as the best floor play at the position. Between Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson, New Orleans has arguably the best group of pass catchers on the slate. Carr also averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in week two -- no other QB on the slate averaged more than 5.3 YPA. While his ceiling is not astronomically high, Carr did put up at least 17 FP in 10/15 games in 2022 and he’ll draw a decent match-up with a middle-of-the-road Panthers defense.

The risky, low-owned QB play is…

Kenny Pickett, PIT | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CLE

Pickett and rookie Bryce Young will be the two lowest-owned QBs on the slate and, for my money, I have a bit more faith in the Steelers’ second-year starter. As we saw in week one, the Steelers are not hesitant to let Pickett throw it 40+ times a game, especially if the run game isn’t working out or they find themselves playing from behind. While he did not impress in a week one match-up against the 49ers, Pickett is expected to take a marginal step up in his second NFL season and his better games a season ago did tend to come at home. It’s a tough match-up against a solid and aggressive Browns defense that blitzed on 41.2% of QB dropbacks last week (2nd highest blitz%). Pickett will also be without arguably his most reliable target in Diontae Johnson (hamstring/out) but 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns, perhaps with some rushing production mixed in, is a viable outcome here.

Running Backs to Consider

The safe RB plays are…

Nick Chubb, CLE | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10k | @ PIT

Chubb is far and away the most expensive player, regardless of position, on this slate, but is also arguably the safest. Despite playing just 36 snaps (49% snap%) in week one, Chubb still handled 22 touches (18 rushes, four receptions) and put up 127 total yards. There was no need for Chubb to log a huge snap count in what was a comfortable 24-3 victory over the Bengals but, as you can see, he received a touch on a whopping 61.1% of the snaps that he did play. The Steelers were gouged by Niners RBs for 162 yards rushing and a TD on 27 carries (6.0 YPC) so Chubb is likely looking at another big game on the ground here and, perhaps it’s too early to tell, but it’s looking like he’s going to be utilized more as a receiver as well.

Jamaal Williams, NO | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | @ CAR

With Alvin Kamara (suspension) out of the picture for a couple more weeks, Jamaal Williams will continue to operate as the bellcow back for the Saints. His 20 touches in week one accounted for all but one of the Saints’ RB touches. It was tough sledding against a stingy Titans defensive front that held Williams to just 2.5 YPC, but the workload and snap share (75%) were there and things should be easier against a Panthers defense that was diced up by Falcons’ RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. In total, the Panthers allowed 131 yards rushing (5.2 YPC) and nine receptions for 46 yards to the Falcons’ RBs last Sunday. Rookie Kendre Miller (hamstring/questionable) could eat into Williams’ snaps and touches if he’s able to make his season debut, but Williams will still handle to bulk of the workload and is one of the better goalline backs in the NFL.

The risky, low-owned RB play is…

Jaylen Warren, PIT | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CLE

The Steelers RBs, and the offense in general, were stymied by the 49ers last week but the off-season buzz of Jaylen Warren being more involved in the game plan did in theory come to fruition. Warren played 40% of snaps, to Najee Harris’ 52%, and while it was an unproductive day for Warren, he equaled Harris’ touch count of eight and looked like the preferred receiving back, logging six targets. It’s tough to glean too much from the Steelers’ week one backfield performance, as they ran the ball on just 17.9% of plays while trying to mount a comeback essentially for the entire game. The Steelers are slight home underdogs tonight so if they get behind early, don’t be surprised if we see more work out of Warren.

Wide Receivers to Consider

The safe WR plays are…

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ CAR

Olave displayed a strong connection with QB Derek Carr in their first regular season game together, hauling in 8/10 targets for 112 yards against the Titans. Olave’s 30.3% target% ranked 11th among week one receivers and the second-year wideout thrived in this match-up last season. In two games against the Panthers, Olave saw 25 targets, brought in 14 receptions, and racked up 207 yards with a touchdown. The Panthers gave up the 4th most FPPG to WRs in 2022 and are now without top CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring/IR).

George Pickens, PIT | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CLE

Pickens is unquestionably the most talented pass catcher on this Steelers team and he’ll need to be more involved with Diontae Johnson (hamstring/out) sidelined for the foreseeable future. There was nothing remarkable about his 7-5-36-0 receiving line from week one but he did just barely miss out on an impressive sideline catch in the end zone in which he was narrowly ruled out of bounds. I’d expect Pickens to push for double-digit targets in this game and he should operate as Pittsburgh’s primary big-play threat as well. Pickens caught 3/6 targets for 72 yards and a score when these teams last met in week 18 of 2022.

Rashid Shaheed, NO | DK: $4.2k, FD: $6.2k | @ CAR

Derek Carr and this Saints offense should be able to support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers on a consistent basis so I would not hesitate to roster multiple Saints WRs on this two-game slate. Rashid Shaheed closed out the 2022 season with some solid performances and he began 2023 on a high note, catching 5/6 targets for 89 yards and a TD while taking a couple of jet sweeps out of the backfield for 11 yards. He’s a guy who can stretch the field and someone who the Saints also look to get the ball to around the line of scrimmage for some YAC plays. A poor man’s Tyreek Hill is what I would liken him to. He won’t be on the field every play (54% snap% week one) but, when he is, the Saints seem to scheme him touches and big play opportunities.

The risky, low-owned WR plays are…

Amari Cooper, CLE | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ PIT

Cooper would be less risky heading into tonight had he not popped up on the injury report with a groin injury sustained in Saturday’s practice. There have been some conflicting reports on Cooper’s availability for tonight, but the latest news suggests he should be available. He likely isn’t 100% and could see some snap count restrictions, making him a bit of a gamble given that he is the second-most expensive WR on the slate behind Chris Olave. But he will draw a positive match-up against a Steelers secondary that allowed a 13-184-2 receiving line to 49ers WRs in week one. If Cooper is ruled out or doesn’t play a huge amount of snaps, WR Elijah Moore (DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.9k) becomes a more appealing DFS play.

DJ Chark Jr., CAR | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NO

Chark’s status will also need to be monitored heading into tonight. He didn’t play in week one and is being listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. However, Chark did log a full practice on Saturday, suggesting that he should be a “go” today. It’s largely speculation, but a healthy Chark should be the favorite to operate as the Panthers’ WR1. QB Bryce Young and the week one Carolina WRs were not able to do much damage against the Falcons last Sunday but they will be at home today. The match-up isn’t great, but also isn’t brutal. Chark and Bryce Young showed some big play connections in training camp so his theoretical ceiling is strong given his modest DFS salaries.

Calvin Austin III, PIT | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5k | vs. CLE

Austin missed his entire 2022 rookie season due to a foot injury, but he was taken by the Steelers in the 4th round in last year’s NFL Draft so he’s not just some guy that Pittsburgh took as a flier in the very late rounds or brought in as an UDFA. The absence of Diontae Johnson will open up a pathway for Austin to not only see the field but also play a meaningful role in the offense. He logged a 54% snap% last week after Johnson played 43% of snaps before the injury. Austin proceeded to haul in all six of his targets for 37 yards. Obviously, that’s not big yardage but Austin was sort of used as an extension of the run game while being given high percentage targets (3.5-yard aDOT). Austin primarily played on the perimeter with Allen Robinson II (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.8k) manning the slot and George Pickens on the other side. Expect Austin to play on most/all three WR sets and, following a full week of practice with the first-teamers, he should see some looks beyond those dink-and-dunk type of targets.

Tight Ends to Consider

The safe TE play is…

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | @ PIT

Between Njoku, Hayden Hurst, Pat Freiermuth, and Juwan Johnson, this is a solid selection of TEs on this two-game slate and I don’t hate the idea of going double tight end in some contrarian lineup builds. Tight end is a volatile position and there are no truly “safe” plays among this group tonight. That being said, despite a quiet week one from Njoku (3-2-24-0), he was still on the field for 73% of snaps and has arguably the highest ceiling of any of today’s four primary TEs. Njoku found the endzone in each of the two games against the Steelers last season while combining for 13 catches and 131 yards. The Steelers also rank 25th allowing 54.9 YPG to TEs over their last nine games. Also, if WR Amari Cooper (groin/questionable) is ultimately ruled out, or limited, Njoku’s target share would be further solidified.

The risky, low-owned TE play is…

Hayden Hurst, CAR | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | vs. NO

Of the four main TEs on this slate, Hurst scored the most fantasy points in week one (15.1 DKFP/12.5 FDFP) so that could ultimately inflate his ownership. But, as it stands now, he has a 9% pOwn% on DK and 6% pOwn% on FD. In a week where the Panthers’ WRs struggled to create separation and big plays, Hurst was peppered with seven targets, catching five for 41 yards and a TD. He only played 53% of snaps but was a favorite safety valve for QB Bryce Young in his regular season NFL debut. If the Carolina WRs struggle once again, look for Hurst to have another sort of five-catch, 40-60-yard performance with a decent shot at a TD.

Low-Owned TE Lotto Tickets

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.5k | @ CAR

Harrison Bryant, CLE | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.8k | @ PIT

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safe: Cleveland Browns | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | @ PIT

Pivot: New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.7k | @ CAR

Touchdown Call 🏈

Nick Chubb, CLE | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10k | @ PIT

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Monday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Jamaal Williams MORE than 15.5 Rush Attempts

George Pickens MORE than 3.5 Receptions

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!