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Sunday Slate Rundown 📝

We have nearly made it to Conference Championship Sunday and it won’t be long before we finally find out which two teams will be punching their tickets to Super Bowl LVIII. There are plenty of great storylines ahead of us this Sunday and it’s sure to be a fantastic day of football! Let's make it a profitable day as well!

The focus of this newsletter will be geared toward the two-game slate, as opposed to single-game/showdown slates, since that is where DFS sites are posting their big money contests along with several free rolls! On a short slate like this, it’s going to be difficult to be unique so, for large-field GPP purposes, don’t hesitate to leave a bit of salary on the table in some of your tournament lineups. Even leaving $300-$400 or so on the table will drastically boost your chances of having a unique non-duplicated lineup. Let’s dive right into this Sunday’s action and get a look ahead at the weather, my DFS cheat sheet, a more detailed look at some core plays for the slate, and some stack concepts to consider! Best of luck!

Sunday match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• KC @ BAL (44.5 O/U): Rain is expected throughout the game. Temps in the low 40s and winds around 10-15 mph.

• DET @ SF (51.5 O/U): Pleasant conditions. Clear skies, temps in the mid-60s, and wind speeds should stay in the single digits.

Sunday NFL DFS Cheat Sheet 📝

Alternative Cheat Sheet Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

Sunday Core Plays

Quarterbacks

As you’ll notice on the cheat sheet above, I’m not heading into this two-game slate with a “core” QB play. I’d prefer to spread out my QB exposure and just stack accordingly. I will say, the only QB I may fade entirely on this slate is Patrick Mahomes. On top of just facing a brutal road match-up in less-than-ideal, rainy conditions, I just believe the remaining three quarterbacks have either a higher ceiling or comparable floor (at cheaper DFS salaries) to the 2023-24 version of Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps it backfires, but you have to take certain stands on a small slate like this.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | at SF

David Montgomery has out-snapped Jahmyr Gibbs 71-to-45 in the playoffs, but Gibbs has shown himself to be the game-breaker out of the backfield. He has scored a touchdown in each postseason game while averaging 5.8 YPC and he has caught 8-of-8 targets for 83 yards. The 49ers have ranked 15th in rush DVOA, but they also faced the fewest RB rushes during the regular season. It makes sense when you consider that teams are generally playing from behind against them. On the flip side, the 49ers’ defense has seen the 6th most RB targets and allowed the 5th most RB receptions. The Lions head into San Francisco as +7.5 underdogs and based on both implied gamescript and the specific match-up, Gibbs stands out as a go-to RB play on this slate.

Justice Hill, BAL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. KC

This is a bit of a gamble as a core play and the Ravens backfield, excluding QB Lamar Jackson as a runner, is about as unpredictable as it gets. But, when in doubt, it’s generally a good idea to look back to recent snap rates and touch volume. Three Ravens’ RBs saw the field in last week’s Divisional Round match-up against Houston; here is how the snap rate and touch count shook out: Justice Hill - 57% snap% & 15 touches, Gus Edwards - 34% snap% & 11 touches, Dalvin Cook - 13% & eight touches (mostly in garbage time). Hill not only has the most receiving upside out of the Ravens’ backfield, but he was the most impressive rusher last week, averaging 5.1 YPC compared to 4.0 YPC for Edwards and 2.9 YPC for Cook (19 of his 23 rush yards came on one play). Based on DVOA, it’s easier to run on the Chiefs (27th in rush DVOA) than pass on them (5th in pass DVOA). And if the Ravens happen to fall behind the Chiefs in this game, Hill, and his better receiving skillset, is most likely to benefit from that scenario.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k | at SF

On a two-game slate, there is going to be some chalk that you’ll inevitably have to eat and Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of those players for me this Sunday. Excluding a week 14 game against Chicago where St. Brown connected with Jared Goff on just 3-of-9 targets, he put up a good-to-elite fantasy score in every other game this season. Over his last six games, he has posted a floor of 21.0 DKFP/14.5 FDFP. Moreover, the 49ers, who ranked 19th in FPPG allowed to WRs this season, struggled the most against slot WRs. St. Brown has run 56% of his routes out of the slot this season and the 49ers gave up the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs. Outside of injury, there are almost zero scenarios in which St. Brown doesn’t get peppered with targets for the entire game.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DET

I’m no Brock Purdy apologist but it certainly appeared as if the rain in San Fran last week really threw off his game. Losing the dynamic Deebo Samuel after he played just nine snaps probably didn’t help either. Whatever the case was, rain won’t be an issue in San Francisco this week, unlike in Baltimore, and I believe there is at least a small chance that Deebo Samuel (formerly questionable, but cleared to play following a shoulder injury) could serve as a bit of a decoy. Either way, Samuel may not be 100% and Aiyuk is going to draw a mouth-watering match-up against a Lions secondary that surrendered the most FPPG to WRs over the second half of the season. The Lions’ perimeter corners, Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor, have simply been getting cooked on the outside. If we’re going off of PFF.com rankings, Sutton ranks 100th among NFL CBs and Vildor ranks 105th. Aiyuk has run over 75% of his routes on the perimeter so those are the two guys he’s mostly going to go up against this Sunday.

Jameson Williams, DET | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | at SF

This will be another risky core play but cheaper WRs seem to often be the “make or break” factor on these two-game slates and it’s not a bad idea to stack most of your chips on one or two guys in hopes of hitting the right combo. There are several cheap WRs worth considering this Sunday, but I imagine the most popular will be Josh Reynolds, who caught five passes for 80 yards in the Wild Card Round and had two catches for 27 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs last week. WR Khalif Raymond’s continued absence thins out the amount of experience in the Lions’ WR room and I believe an interesting pivot off of the Reynolds chalk will be by going to his teammate, Jameson Williams. Williams’ brief time in the NFL has not been without its speedbumps, and he has not really exploded in any one game this season. But he is a guy who can “get there” by making just one or two big plays. Barring a surprise, Williams is going to play more than half of the offensive snaps and he owns a team-leading 15.8-yard aDOT and 2.7 air yards per route run. Amon-Ra St. Brown will draw plenty of defensive attention so it’s not difficult to imagine the possibility of Jameson Williams getting open on some go routes deep downfield.

Tight End

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DET

As you can tell, my core is leaning heavily in the direction of the NFC Conference Championship showdown but it does have the better chance of turning into a high-scoring shootout. All four teams still left standing in the race for Super Bowl LVIII have an elite tight end at their disposal, so it does feel like splitting hairs a bit when deciding on just one to go heavy on but Kittle gets the honors for me this week. Among other reasons, his home/road splits are tough for me to ignore. He’s averaging 85.9 YPG and 19.2 DKFP/15.7 FDFP per game at home this season. Six of his seven receiving TDs have also come in San Francisco. The Lions represent a strong match-up as they have allowed the 11th most FPPG and 8th most YPG to the TE position this season. Kittle is another player who would benefit in the event of WR Deebo Samuel being limited or utilized as a decoy, but that’s not something we’ll necessarily count on this week.

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey

Contrarian QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Justin Watson

Contrarian Team Stack | QB + Low-Owned WR + Low-Owned RB

Lamar Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Justice Hill

Touchdown Call 🏈

WR Brandon Aiyuk

PrizePicks NFL Power Play of the Day ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Justice Hill MORE than 12.5 Receiving Yards

George Kittle MORE than 61.5 Receiving Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!