Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Conference Championship Sunday is on the horizon and we are down to the final four teams preparing to duke it out in order to earn themselves a berth into Super Bowl LIV. This has certainly been an entertaining season with quite a few twists and turns. And for DFS purposes, I hope you all had some success along the way! We’ll be wrapping up the LineStar Weekly Pylon newsletters for the 2019-20 season with this final edition. A huge thanks to all of the subscribers who gave these a read throughout the year! With just two games on tap, plenty of these plays below are going to seem pretty obvious, but I’m going to try to mix in some contrarian options throughout.  Here we go!

Quarterbacks to Target

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TEN

Mahomes is far and away the obvious QB option this week and if I were making 100 lineups for this slate, I’d be hard-pressed not to have him in around 70% of those. Is there any other quarterback in the league who could come back from a 24-0 deficit in a playoff game and make it look as easy as Mahomes did last Sunday? Probably not. You probably don’t need much convincing as to why Mahomes should be the top overall QB play this week, but it is worth noting that the Titans’ defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run but 21st in DVOA against the pass. In terms of Mahomes’ fantasy production, I highly doubt the game script works out as well as it did last week. But he’s pretty much a no-brainer in terms of having the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ KC

You have to imagine that Kansas City is going to do all they can to not meet the same fate as New England and Baltimore by letting Derrick Henry almost single-handedly beat them. Due to Henry’s historically dominant run in the latter half of the season, Tannehill’s fantasy ceiling has taken quite a hit. Hell, he has only had to throw a combined 29 times across Tennessee’s two playoff games. Perhaps the Titans continue to drastically defy the odds and control this game on the ground on their way to victory, but there’s a pretty significant chance that Tannehill’s arm may actually have to carry them this Sunday if they hope to win an AFC title. He has proven multiple times this year that he is capable of putting up impressive numbers in the box score, aided by his elite accuracy (70.3% completion rate). So, in order to free up some additional salary, Tannehill will be my preferred Mahomes pivot this Sunday.

Running Backs to Target

Aaron Jones | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | @ SF

Most RB ownership should fall on Derrick Henry and Damien Williams this week, and I really have nothing to say against playing those guys, but that does make Jones the primary pivot at the top. This San Francisco defensive front is essentially at full strength now, and it is a scary sight to behold. Last Saturday, they held Dalvin Cook to just 18 yards on the ground, however the Vikings only ran him nine times. Expect Jones to see significantly more opportunities, especially if Green Bay avoids falling behind by multiple scores as Minnesota did last week.

Raheem Mostert | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.8k | vs. GB

Back on the 49ers backfield carousel we go. Against Minnesota last week, the running back offensive snaps broke down as follows: Coleman - 33 (46%), Mostert -24 (34%), Breida - 12 (17%). From those snaps, Coleman had 22 touches, Mostert had 12, Breida had eight. Many people, including myself, were high on Mostert heading into that game, as he had pretty steadily been taking over as the lead option in the backfield committee. He did go down in the fourth quarter with a calf cramp and, in a post-game interview admitted he had dealt with “some sickness” heading into that game. So perhaps he wasn’t quite at 100%. It’s hard to say definitively who will be the main guy for San Francisco this week, but I’m willing to take the chance on it being Mostert in hopes that the majority of the field chase the points with Coleman. Either way, Mostert should be good for around 12-15 touches and he’s been one of the most efficient backs in the league this season, so he could do plenty with limited opportunities.

Wide Receivers to Target

Davante Adams | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | @ SF

I’m tempted to just say that Adams is worth 100% exposure this week. The only thing stopping me from making that statement is the fact that injuries can always occur, but otherwise this guy is nearly guaranteed to be among the top two or three fantasy scoring WRs this Sunday. Across Green Bay’s last four games, Adams is averaging a stat line of 9/118/1 on 13.3 targets per game. Nine of his targets in that span have been in the redzone. The 49ers have also given up a slate-worst 43.3 DraftKings FPPG to the WR position across their last four games so, as much as they may try to stop Adams, I doubt they’ll be able to.

AJ Brown | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ KC

If we presume that Ryan Tannehill is going to need to actually throw upwards of 30+ times this week, then we have to predict that AJ Brown will have a much larger playoff impact than he has had through the first two rounds. So far in the postseason, Brown has just two catches on four targets for 13 yards (and one nine yard rush). I mean, it has been the Derrick Henry show, so it’s not a huge surprise. But if Tennessee wins this game, I believe Brown will be a major cause of victory. Brown has been one of the standout rookies of the 2019 season and his 20.21 YPC average ranked second in the entire NFL. He won’t need a high target volume to pay off in this spot.

Kendrick Bourne | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. GB

Bourne is, at best, the fourth option on a very ‘run first’ team that rushes the ball on 50.5% of plays (2nd most in NFL). Perhaps this is a little ‘point chasey’ after Bourne found the endzone last week, but that does seem to be his specialty. On just 33 receptions this season, Bourne has six touchdowns. It seems that when San Francisco is deep in enemy territory and opts for a pass play, Bourne takes on a significantly larger role. He leads the team with five redzone touchdowns -- two more than the next closest (TEs George Kittle & Ross Dwelley each have three RZ TDs). He’s worth a flyer on a short slate.

Tight Ends to Target

George Kittle | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7k | vs. GB

It’s awfully hard to avoid Travis Kelce (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k) but you have to think that his ownership will be slightly inflated as people chase that massive 10/134/3 statline that he posted last week. On the season, Kittle has actually averaged +0.2 DraftKings FPPG over Kelce and accounted for an additional 3.8% of his team’s targets. Really, you’re splitting hairs comparing these two stud tight ends but if I was forced to pick one guy, I’m likely taking the savings with Kittle. However, this might not be a bad week to play both guys in some lineup builds. Even on short slates, people don’t often take the dual TE approach.

Jonnu Smith | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ KC

If Kelce and Kittle are the 1A and 1B TE options, Jonnu Smith is pretty easily slotted in as option B. Like every Titan offensive weapon not named “Derrick Henry”, Smith hasn’t had a crazy impact in the postseason -- though he did make that incredible touchdown catch last week. But, as previously mentioned, the Titans will likely need to pass quite a bit this week and Kansas City is a defense to attack with tight ends. They allowed the 4th most FPPG to the position this season so Smith is firmly on the DFS radar if you’re looking to pivot off of the top two guys.

Defensive Breakdown

Green Bay Packers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $4k | @ SF

The Packers probably aren’t the safest DST to play this week but if they pull off the upset it will probably be on the heels of a huge defensive performance. Turnovers are a major key in a football team’s success. It is no surprise to see that these four teams who are still alive are all very good at taking care of the football… except for the 49ers who are more “middle of the pack.” The Packers have just 13 giveaways this season (2nd fewest), the Chiefs have 15 (T-4th fewest), and the Titans have 17 (T-7th fewest). However, the 49ers have given the ball away 23 times (T-12th MOST). Most of those giveaways fall on the shoulders of Jimmy Garoppolo (14 INTS, 5 lost fumbles). If the Packers can pressure Garoppolo effectively, that could certainly lead to plenty of mistakes on his end.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. It's been a great season -- thanks again for reading. Enjoy the games and best of luck to all of you guys and gals this week!

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