By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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We have made it to the eve of Conference Championship Sunday and it won’t be long before we finally find out which two teams will be punching their tickets to Super Bowl LV. Plenty of offense should be expected between these two games, which carry totals of 52 and 54 points with just 3-3.5 point spreads. The focus of this newsletter will be geared towards the two-game slate (as opposed to single-game/showdown slates) since that seems to be where DFS sites are posting their big money contests.

On a short slate like this, it’s going to be difficult to be unique so (for large field GPP purposes) don’t hesitate to leave a bit of salary on the table in some of your tournament lineups. Even leaving $300-$400 or so on the table will drastically boost your chances of having a non-duplicated lineup. There are no significant weather impacts to hit on for these games so let’s get right into some DFS plays to consider!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Josh Allen | DK: $6.9, FD: $8.5k | @ KC | Cash & GPP

The four QBs playing on Championship Sunday makeup half of the top eight fantasy scoring QBs on the 2020-21 season. Obviously you can make an argument to play any one of these guys and they’re all going to carry moderate to high ownership -- there’s just no way around it. Allen stands out as the initial go-to guy in my book. With rookie RB Zack Moss (ankle) banged up and placed on IR, Buffalo running backs carries the ball a combined nine times last week against the Ravens. Josh Allen accounted for seven rush attempts himself but also threw the ball 37 times. Perhaps that was just the game plan going in, since the Ravens run defense completely shut down Derrick Henry the week prior in the wild-card round. But it’s also not a stretch to assume that the Bills are going to be even more reliant on the arm and legs of Josh Allen than they have been already this season. Allen also draws the most favorable match-up among quarterbacks as the Chiefs have allowed the 9th most FPPG to QBs this season and the most among remaining playoff teams.

Aaron Rodgers | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TB | Cash & GPP

At 37-years-old, Aaron Rodgers has put together one of the more consistent fantasy seasons for a quarterback in recent memory, and he is arguably the front-runner for league MVP. Ironically enough, the only truly bad game Rodgers has had this year came back in week six against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You’d be fooling yourself if you didn’t think some sort of revenge isn’t looming in the back of Rodgers’ mind. More importantly, Rodgers knows his counterpart in this game has six rings against his one. If he’s on a mission to prove that he deserves to be in the same conversation as Tom Brady when it comes to all-time greats, we should be getting a fully locked-in Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. As an added bonus, Rodgers rarely disappoints at home in Lambeau Field.

Running Backs to Consider

Leonard Fournette | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ GB | Cash & GPP

The selection of RBs on this slate is pretty lackluster, to say the least. It pretty much furthers the point that to be a successful offense in the NFL these days, an elite passing game is much more vital than an elite running game. When it comes to Fournette, the Bucs are leaning quite heavily on him in these playoffs. He received 23 touches against Washington and 22 against New Orleans last week while finding the endzone in both games. Ronald Jones II was a surprise inactive in the game against Washington, so Fournette had a pretty easy pathway to the lion’s share of the RB touches. However, with Jones active last week and handling 13 touches, Fournette still out-snapped him 49 to 21 (68% snap rate to 29%). Tampa Bay likely wants to keep both guys fresh throughout the game and Jones enters the week without an injury designation, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the backfield split is closer to 50/50 this week. But Fournette gets a boost as the preferred DFS option due to his involvement in the passing game although we should remember that he played behind Jones for much of the season. The Packers allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs this season so whichever guy does end up getting the majority of touches (and goal line work), they’re likely going to be an optimal option on this small slate.

Darrell Williams | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6k | vs. BUF | Cash* & GPP

*Both Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle/hip) and Le’Veon Bell (knee) are looking like true game time decisions. If CEH suits up, then Williams’ fantasy prospects obviously take a major hit and would make Williams more of a GPP target as opposed to a safe cash play. With CEH out last week and Bell active, Williams was the guy who drew the start and ended up playing 79% of snaps compared to just 16% for Bell. While Williams was kept out of the endzone, he was productive on the day, turning his 13 carries into 78 yards (6.0 YPC) and adding four catches for an additional 16 yards (Bell was limited to just two carries for six yards, and two targets, no receptions). On an offense that can move the ball like Kansas City, any high-volume running back is going to be a valuable fantasy asset. That could be Williams this week.

Devin Singletary | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | @ KC | GPP Preferred

Singletary will be tough to trust even though he’s likely to be on the field for nearly every offensive snap. He played 84% of snaps last week yet came away with seven carries for 25 yards (3.6 YPC) and caught 3-of-3 targets for 12 yards. As mentioned with Josh Allen, perhaps that was just the game plan going into their match-up with a tough Ravens run defense. When given the opportunities, Singletary can put together pretty decent fantasy numbers but we just don’t know whether or not the Bills are going to trust him to carry a significant workload. I’d still throw him in my GPP player pool, however.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Stefon Diggs | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | @ KC | Cash & GPP

At this point, you have to wonder if anyone is going to slow Diggs down. I know Davante Adams has had a monstrous season and Tyreek Hill is Tyreek Hill and can explode in any game, but Diggs has arguably been the most dominant receiver over the last month and a half. Diggs could be the most expensive WR on this slate or at least priced right by Adams, and no one would consider that a crazy proposition. The target volume Diggs is seeing from Josh Allen is just too consistently high which has helped him go for 27.6+ DKFP in four of his last five. Volume aside, Diggs is just a damn good receiver and the game script likely plays in his favor once again as Buffalo looks to keep pace offensively with Kansas City.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. TB | GPP Only

I’ve gotta say the obligatory “MVS is super boom-or-bust so only consider him for GPP lineups”. Funny enough, Valdes-Scantling garnered a season-high eight targets against the Rams last week and he wasn’t utilized as a “downfield only” receiving threat. In typical fantasy football fashion, it was Allen Lazard who somewhat unexpectedly came away with the big receiving play for Green Bay last week when he hauled in a 58-yard touchdown. Perhaps that sways some ownership away from MVS who could get you 20+ fantasy points just as easily as he could lay up a goose egg. He is still the NFL’s leader with 19.5 yards per catch this season.

Scotty Miller | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.9k | @ GB | GPP Preferred

Antonio Brown (knee) will be forced to miss the NFC Championship game so that will provide some extra snaps for Scotty Miller. It’s no guarantee that he’ll produce, but he’ll at least see the field more and can pay off these salaries on just one or two big plays. Miller’s 15.6 yard per catch this season actually ranks him 12th in the NFL and he can certainly produce some huge plays when Brady targets him downfield. You also have to imagine that Mike Evans will have his hands full as he deals with Packers top CB Jaire Alexander. When these teams played in week six, Alexander covered Evans on 76% of his routes and allowed zero catches on one target (per Pro Football Focus). That isn’t guaranteed to mean a ton of targets for Miller, but it probably doesn’t hurt his chances. For a complete GPP punt, you could also consider Bucs rookie WR Tyler Johnson (DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k) whose skill set is more similar to Antonio Brown’s. I’d expect Johnson to see around the same amount of snaps as Miller.

Tight Ends to Consider

Rob Gronkowski | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5.2k | @ GB | GPP Preferred

At this point, I have to assume that most people are just going to try to fit Travis Kelce (DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k) in their lineups, especially in cash, and I don’t blame you. Despite being nearly invisible in the box score during their current playoff run, Gronk is probably a tight end we can consider as a GPP pivot off of Kelce. He’s still seeing the majority of snaps at tight end and may not be needed to block quite as much this week as he has the previous two games. As I sort of mentioned with Scotty Miller, other Bucs receiving options may also benefit from Brady’s unwillingness to throw it in the direction of Jaire Alexander. Gronk was targeted eight times against Green Bay in week six and produced a 5/78/1 stat line.

Dawson Knox | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.7k | @ KC | GPP Preferred

Any tight end on this slate that manages to score 10-15 fantasy points could easily end up as the second-leading fantasy TE on the slate (behind Kelce). Knox is capable of accomplishing that feat. He does have a touchdown in four of the Bills previous eight games and has been playing on about 60-70% of snaps during that span. If he manages to find paydirt on Sunday evening, it could take just a couple more decent catches to thrust him into “optimal play” territory. Of course, Knox is still a pretty risky guy to roster. I’d prefer to roll with him on DraftKings, where just 11.2 DKFP would return the sort of 4x value we’re looking to find for tournaments.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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